The New American Politics thread

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by mustache ride

I believe this was one of the things covered in Trump's agreement not to run as an independent. If Trump is the clear cut leader going into the convention and is not named the nominee,he can then break the agreement and run as a third party candidate.

He can do whatever he wants, win or no win.

A third party run would just benefit the democrats though. That's the problem the GOP has.

Looks good on them. Constantly run on crazy to secure the vote, say stupid to get elected, get a candidate who parrots it all back to you.

A conspiracy theorist would claim Trump is a fool candidate to help the dems win the next election.

He actually just represents a third of the republican voters. Sad. Mildly disturbing. Sorry, very disturbing.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think this is a pretty good hypothesis on how Trump has gotten to this point: The GOP relying on someone/something else to solve the problem (that no one ultimately stepped up to solve).

So why has it been proved wrong? My hypothesis is that GOP decision-makers also read the same analyses and concluded that they did not need to do anything to stop Trump. Sure, his poll numbers stayed robust even after he kept saying racist and insulting things, but there were good auxiliary hypotheses to explain why that was the case. They kept reading analysis after analysis in 2015 about how Donald Trump had little chance of winning the GOP nomination. They read smart take after smart take telling them that Trump didn’t have a chance. Even as the media covered Trump, even as late as the South Carolina debate, pundits were also talking about how his latest transgressive comment would doom his chances.

So GOP party leaders didn’t take any action. Except that the reason smart analysts believed Trump had no chance was because they thought GOP leaders would eventually take action.

But I wonder: Just how much of Trump’s rise came about because the people who could have stopped him read analyses asserting that he had no chance of winning? How much did political scientists refute their own hypotheses?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...-donald-trump/

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Daradon

He can do whatever he wants, win or no win.

A third party run would just benefit the democrats though. That's the problem the GOP has.

Definitely kills them at the presidential level. What I wonder is whether a third-party run by Trump would actually hurt down-ballot Republicans, or whether it'll just drive Republican voter turnout that will be split at the presidential level but unified behind the republicans at the senate/congress level.
While some Trump supporters would definitely boycott the Republicans if they forced Trump out, I would expect most would recognize that he still needs a Republican congress and Senate. But maybe that's giving them too much credit; the ultimate protest action would be to vote for Trump for president and leave the rest of the ballot blank.

While a third-party Trump victory is next to impossible, it would be fitting if it came with a Republican congress (that's really pissed at Trump) and a Democrat senate. That would be the ultimate grid-lock government.

[Vulcan]

TRump wins Nevada with 46.7%
Rubio - 23.5%
Cruz - 20.2%
Carson - 5.6%
Kasich - 3.7%

There are 30 delegates at stake given out on a proportional basis but the big news for me is Trump has gotten into the 40+% territory. I think it may be over.

[CaptainCrunch]

Dude, its over, I was hoping for Rubio, but Trump has really built up a large lead.

Carson and Kasich really need to step down.

[dino7c]

lol its gonna be Trump and Hillary

[flylock shox]

Lists of insults Trump has delivered at various targets:

New York Times

CNN

I'm not sure it's possible to parody this guy.

[Thor]

This is better than any reality TV series. What happens next week?

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Thor

What happens next week?

[Hemi-Cuda]

For the first time I really believe that Trump can be the next president. He already wins a head-to-head against Hillary in most polls, and his popularity is still climbing while hers is going down with her email issues getting more serious. She is dishonest, owned by wall street, and just plain unlikeable. The DNC was very stupid to put all their support behind her and no one else, it's going to burn them come general election time

[Thor]

Yep, I am deeply worried if Sanders doesn't somehow pull it out that Hillary would lose to Trump. Can't believe I'm saying that, wtf.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Honestly I think Trump has it either way and might even have it easier against Sanders because at least Hillary can crush him on foreign policy, and Trump's misogyny might get the better of him and cost him the election. Bernie has no natural advantage other than he's a lot more likeable, but even as disliked as she is Hillary is still more likeable than Trump. I just don't think Bernie can appeal broadly enough, and the numbers seem to back that up as he's not getting close to the turnout numbers Obama had in 2008. But it just seems to me so many Americans are just ready to ride the crazy train because Trump says and does whatever he wants (advantages of being a billionaire...) and don't give a #### and that's apparently what they want in a leader right now.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Is it the end of the American Empire and Donald Trump will be playing his fiddle as Rome burns around him?

Still can't see Trump winning anything. The Republicans put forth the worst collection of candidates possible, allowing a rodeo clown to look like a viable candidate to their crazy constituents, but there is still a majority of Americans that are sane people. They can't vote this megalomaniac into the highest office in the land. I can't believe my fellow Americans would be that stupid. I think that the Trump University fraud case may shine some light on the Donald that may make people think long and hard about this guy. Then again, Americans love a good cheater too, so this may bolster his numbers.

We really are in uncharted political territory right now. Very strange times.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Honestly I think Trump has it either way and might even have it easier against Sanders because at least Hillary can crush him on foreign policy, and Trump's misogyny might get the better of him and cost him the election. Bernie has no natural advantage other than he's a lot more likeable, but even as disliked as she is Hillary is still more likeable than Trump. I just don't think Bernie can appeal broadly enough, and the numbers seem to back that up as he's not getting close to the turnout numbers Obama had in 2008. But it just seems to me so many Americans are just ready to ride the crazy train because Trump says and does whatever he wants (advantages of being a billionaire...) and don't give a #### and that's apparently what they want in a leader right now.

All the latest national polls have Bernie way ahead of Trump. This election cycle is all about the non traditional candidate and it seems finally that people are starting to rally against big money in the political system, well hopefully anyhow.

To me the big issue is campaign finance reform, which there is zero chance Hillary does a thing about it.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by New Era

I can't believe my fellow Americans would be that stupid.

Why not?

In order to have a top-half of anything, there must be a bottom-half.

Trump voters are simply revealing who composes the bottom-half of the Republican party.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Thor

All the latest national polls have Bernie way ahead of Trump. This election cycle is all about the non traditional candidate and it seems finally that people are starting to rally against big money in the political system, well hopefully anyhow.

To me the big issue is campaign finance reform, which there is zero chance Hillary does a thing about it.

National polls are effectively irrelevant right now for two reasons: One...it's February, Romney was ahead of Obama in polls around this time as well. Two, it's the electoral college. Bernie could beat Trump in the popular vote by 5 million votes or more and still lose the election. I just do not see Trump losing any states Romney had, and I think he'll flip Ohio, Michigan and Florida and that takes him to the White House. It sucks, but Trump has the more fierce supporters and the GOP overall is more enthusiastic than the Democrats. I think nominating Ted Cruz would destroy their chances, he's significantly worse than Trump. As I've already said you take out Mexicans and Muslims and Trump is a moderate Republican.

As to finance reform, Bernie isn't doing anything about it either. Republican Congress or Senate Control = Never happening.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I think they're meaningless for a different reason: Bernie's had a really easy ride. Hillary has been absolutely massacred by everyone for over a year, her democratic opponents and the GOP who assumed she'd win, alike. Hell, more than a year; they were doing it in 2008.

[Fuzz]

I get the feeling this will be the lowest voter turnout in years. Everyone will stay home in disgust.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

National polls are effectively irrelevant right now for two reasons: One...it's February, Romney was ahead of Obama in polls around this time as well. Two, it's the electoral college. Bernie could beat Trump in the popular vote by 5 million votes or more and still lose the election. I just do not see Trump losing any states Romney had, and I think he'll flip Ohio, Michigan and Florida and that takes him to the White House. It sucks, but Trump has the more fierce supporters and the GOP overall is more enthusiastic than the Democrats. I think nominating Ted Cruz would destroy their chances, he's significantly worse than Trump. As I've already said you take out Mexicans and Muslims and Trump is a moderate Republican.

As to finance reform, Bernie isn't doing anything about it either. Republican Congress or Senate Control = Never happening.

I agree that national head-to-head polls are irrelevant right now, but don't agree that the electoral math is favourable for Trump. He does very poorly among non-white and Latino voters, and if turnout on the right drops he will be in big trouble in some of the key Obama swing states. He can win Ohio, and still lose if he can't pick up Florida, Nevada, Colorado, etc.

The irony of all of this is that as Trump moves toward locking up the nomination (he isn't there yet, but it would be foolish jerry t to acknowledge his big advantage), the GOP is overlooking their most "electable" candidate in Rubio. I actually think Rubio beats Clinton easily (just my opinion, based on nothing more than a hunch) but Trump faces a huge uphill battle in the electoral college.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I get the feeling this will be the lowest voter turnout in years. Everyone will stay home in disgust.

Hasn't turnout in the primaries and caucuses thus far been higher than normal? I don't know how the strong turnout will play out in the general election but numbers could be pretty strong. Trump seems to be getting a large amount of people out to vote and if the Democrats are up against Trump I'm sure their turnout will be really strong in order to attempt to defeat him.

I'd like to think that a general election with Trump v Sanders could have some incredibly high turnout because both of those guys seem to pulling in supporters who are new to the political process.