New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2...tum_hbert.html

Good article by Chantal Hebert who documents a moving trend of "Anyone But Harper' amongst voters. The support Trudeau lost in his bungling of the ISIS matter went to the NDP and Greens, and not the Conservatives.

Yeah, and the voting is probably going to be strategic enough to avoid vote-splitting. In a Conservative/Liberal swing riding, anti-harper voters are probably going to stick with Trudeau, and vice versa in a NDP/Conservative swing riding (if there are any of the latter... maybe in BC?).


This is huge:

In the Ekos poll, Harper’s party was the second choice of less than 10 per cent of the supporters of the other parties.

If that's in any way accurate, that means the Conservatives' ceiling, even if they convert absolutely all of those 'second choice' votes, is somewhere in the mid-30s.

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by rubecube

For me, this (the cuts to research and muzzling of scientists) and OMNIBUS are the biggest issues I have with the Harper government. Pretty embarrassing that it's come to this.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/fo...uffer&cmp=fbtl

And that is exactly why the Cons. have lost my vote federally. Ideologues. i dont care about saving $500 on taxes. I want an intelligent government that listens to facts.

The provincial PC's will never get my vote back, but the feds have a chance in future elections.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, and the voting is probably going to be strategic enough to avoid vote-splitting. In a Conservative/Liberal swing riding, anti-harper voters are probably going to stick with Trudeau, and vice versa in a NDP/Conservative swing riding (if there are any of the latter... maybe in BC?).


This is huge:



If that's in any way accurate, that means the Conservatives' ceiling, even if they convert absolutely all of those 'second choice' votes, is somewhere in the mid-30s.

If the election were held today there'd be a very high probability that we'd see a Liberal majority with the NDP as official opposition.

[Dan02]

Liberal minority with a ndp opposition perhaps but majority with ndp opposition would be pretty tough to pull off.

[codfather]

Things are getting closer with the Conservatives closing in on the Liberals and Harper surpassing Trudeau as the preferred PM for the first time in months. It seems that every time Trudeau opens his mouth it hurts him. Sad to think that Marc Garneau could have been the leader of the Liberal party instead.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos...king-1.2098169

[killer_carlson]

Marc Garneau would make an excellent Prime Minister. It's too bad he lost the leadership race to a muppet. Canada would be better off with someone of substance and intellect leading the Libs right now, forcing Harper and his Ministers to improve their game.

The best line on Trudeau that I've seen in months was in a Globe and Mail editorial about Isis. The Globe has traditionally been very supportive of Trudeau and spinning his platitudes into positives. However, in the midst of Trudeau's trainwreck on ISIS, they had this line: "Quiet Justin. The adults are talking"


"Justin Trudeau’s opponents constantly try to brand him as unready for office, and the Liberal Leader keeps proving them wrong. Until lately, that is. Suddenly we’ve been hit with the temptation to say, Quiet, Justin. The adults are talking.

It’s hard to imagine what Mr. Trudeau was trying to prove when he said the government should provide humanitarian aid and non-combat support to the coalition taking on the Islamic State – “rather than whip out our CF-18s and show them how big they are.” Did he think his remark was funny? Hip? Accurate?"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle20993905/

[1stLand]

Justin Trudeau is not a man.
He reminds me of a 55 year old woman going through menopause.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Marc Garneau would make an excellent Prime Minister. It's too bad he lost the leadership race to a muppet. Canada would be better off with someone of substance and intellect leading the Libs right now, forcing Harper and his Ministers to improve their game.

In the end, it really doesn't matter how much substance or intellect a candidate has. Popularity has little to do with those things these days, unfortunately. Garneau barely won his own riding.

I have no doubt that the Conservatives could have destroyed Garneau just as easily as they did Dion or Ignatieff.

[saillias]

What a severe miscalculation for him to say that. There's an international community you have to be a part of when you're leader of a country. You don't get to opt out. There are a bunch of institutions that are counting on you. Death sentence for his PM aspirations, IMO.

[Frequitude]

I look forward to the Conservative election machine destroying Trudeau in the coming year. Harper has been waiting for a moment like this his entire life...to take on the son of Pierre Trudeau. This is going to be fun.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think right now the Liberals are really sweating about the loss of momentum and that normally friendly media outlets are turning on Trudeau a little bit.

I also think they're sweating the thought of Trudeau in the debates against Mulcair and Harper where Trudeau doesn't have someone behind him saying, "What he meant to say was".

If the Liberal's lose in the next election, I have my doubts that Trudeau will want or be invited to take another stab at it.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

Justin Trudeau is not a man.
He reminds me of a 55 year old woman going through menopause.

Perhaps you could elaborate? What are the essential characteristics of a man? Which ones do Mr. Trudeau lack? What are the essential characteristics of a 55 year old woman going through menopause?

And are you suggesting that a 55 year old woman going through menopause is less qualified to be Prime Minister than a man?

What was the point of your post?

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

In the end, it really doesn't matter how much substance or intellect a candidate has. Popularity has little to do with those things these days, unfortunately. Garneau barely won his own riding.

I have no doubt that the Conservatives could have destroyed Garneau just as easily as they did Dion or Ignatieff.

Putting Trudeau in office is closer to when Schwarzenegger or Ventura got in down in the US than an actual politician that is ready and equipped to run a first world nation.

It's like a popularity contest in high school. Usually the good looking dummy is at the top of the heap.

That being said, I think there is about a 0% chance that the Conservatives finish 3rd. They will be a strong official opposition at worst with an outside chance at another minority ruling government.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The CPC's problem is without a majority they basically can't do anything they want, nobody will work with them. And at this point it looks highly improbable they'll win anything other than a minority government. It would probably benefit Trudeau to spend some time as opposition leader, but then it would become about when they will force an election. And poor Tommy Mulcair, probably the best leader of the three but no one seems to care or even know the NDP exists right now.

[peter12]

When people say the Conservatives have chosen ideology over pragmatism too many times, I wonder what they actually mean.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by peter12

When people say the Conservatives have chosen ideology over pragmatism too many times, I wonder what they actually mean.

That they've made a large number of appallingly bad decisions with serious and far-reaching negative consequences for Canadians?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The CPC's problem is without a majority they basically can't do anything they want, nobody will work with them. And at this point it looks highly improbable they'll win anything other than a minority government. It would probably benefit Trudeau to spend some time as opposition leader, but then it would become about when they will force an election. And poor Tommy Mulcair, probably the best leader of the three but no one seems to care or even know the NDP exists right now.

I think most people see the NDP as a Liberal placeholder for the time being.

It's still way too early IMO to take any of these polls to heart. Most elections are won or lost in the final couple of months. People have short memories.

I also don't think Trudeau's ISIS comments are as big of a factor as they are being made out to be. Canada should be focusing on the humanitarian side of this conflict (IMO) because... someone has to, but hardly anyone is. Between the U.S., France and Britain taking on the sexy side of the conflict, we are needed in other ways. I think it's sad that promoting this idea is seen as political weakness.

I think the recent surge of patriotism and anger from the terrorist attacks has helped the ruling Conservatives more than anything. Harper has had some effective PR time in the face of tragedy. How long of an effect this will have by 2015 is anyone's guess.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think most people see the NDP as a Liberal placeholder for the time being.

It's still way too early IMO to take any of these polls to heart. Most elections are won or lost in the final couple of months. People have short memories.

I also don't think Trudeau's ISIS comments are as big of a factor as they are being made out to be. Canada should be focusing on the humanitarian side of this conflict (IMO) because... someone has to, but hardly anyone is. Between the U.S., France and Britain taking on the sexy side of the conflict, we are needed in other ways. I think it's sad that promoting this idea is seen as political weakness.

I think the recent surge of patriotism and anger from the terrorist attacks has helped the ruling Conservatives more than anything. Harper has had some effective PR time in the face of tragedy. How long of an effect this will have by 2015 is anyone's guess.

Does that good PR survive 6 weeks of the Mike Duffy trial this spring and basically a stream of bad news for the CPC on the cover of the newspaper every day? Harper is smarter than this though...he has to pull the plug and go for the early election, right?

[AcGold]

You know a PM sucks when his hometown populace hates him. Can't wait until he's gone, he's moving the country backwards with a strongarm. If he gets re elected I am claiming shenanigans.

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by AcGold

You know a PM sucks when his hometown populace hates him. Can't wait until he's gone, he's moving the country backwards with a strongarm. If he gets re elected I am claiming shenanigans.

His home town populace doesn't hate him at all. The internet obviously leans young and liberal. I would bet a large majority of people that aren't posting on internet boards are still well in the Conservative corner here in Calgary.

If the Consevatives drop most of their seats in Calgary in the next election, then I guess you would be right, but I'd be willing to bet a chunk of change that the Cons will once again win almost every seat in Calgary and Alberta for that matter.