[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So you’re saying Flames received mid second round pick value for Fox in that trade? That may be right but curious as to how you are so certain.

As I said, what I really object to is the notion that unsigned Fox was worth nothing to the Flames. Because for one thing, it’s not binary: signed or unsigned. Its a spectrum of likelihood to sign from 0 to 100 that affects the “control” piece of the value. And we don’t know what that was. And even if it was zero, his value isn’t zero unless it’s clear he would refuse to sign with anyone, or only one team.

The chatter after the deal was done was meant to make people think the likelihood was low, thereby changing their relative perception of value obtained.

There was a quite a bit of chatter before the trade when Calgary did try to sign Fox and he decided to go back to Harvard...

I think people still thought he would sign, but the chatter that you talk of existed before the trade and was not something that was purely to provide cover... there was quite a bit of discussion of being worried of not signing Fox after his decision to go back to school

The caveat then was that out of all the college players drafted, very few go the UFA route, including Gaudreau and Janko...but there was definitely some concern after the pitch was made and turned down

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

I think one of the biggest thing this trade did was give us roster flexibility. Ferland and especially Hamilton were pretty one dementionable in where they had to play in the lineup and that they couldn't be relied upon defensively. Lindholm can play in all situations and is producing at a really nice clip. Same for Hanafin, any pairing and can play PK or PP. Same cannot be said for Ferland and Hamilton.

Happy with the trade regardless of what the others do.

one what??

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

one what??

Dimensional?

[Bingo]

I've always seen the trade as Treliving going after both Hanifin and Lindholm. Carolina wouldn't do it for Hamilton alone, so other names came in including Bennett (likely from Carolina) then Ferland (from Calgary).

Still didn't get it done.

On the draft weekend it was suggested Carolina insisted on Fox to get it done, so he wasn't a throw in, he was the cost to either do the deal or walk away. Treliving said that weekend that they circled back with Fox's agent to ask again about their chances of getting a contract done and then went ahead with the deal.

Treliving has never been a guy to say a lot in the media so I'm not sure I buy that he made that up to sell the deal or for gamemanship reasons, but of course that's just my opinion.

From the Carolina side the new owner apparently had a problem with the salary system for players coming out of entry level contracts (Hanifin) and paying for what they will do instead of what they have done.

So I see Treliving assessing the risk of Fox's upside, found out he wouldn't sign and knew he'd be dealing the asset at some time in the next two years. Decided he wanted his two players and got it done.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So you’re saying Flames received mid second round pick value for Fox in that trade? That may be right but curious as to how you are so certain.

As I said, what I really object to is the notion that unsigned Fox was worth nothing to the Flames. Because for one thing, it’s not binary: signed or unsigned. Its a spectrum of likelihood to sign from 0 to 100 that affects the “control” piece of the value. And we don’t know what that was. And even if it was zero, his value isn’t zero unless it’s clear he would refuse to sign with anyone, or only one team.

The chatter after the deal was done was meant to make people think the likelihood was low, thereby changing their relative perception of value obtained.

No one is saying his value was zero. But there is plenty of evidence that the likelihood of signing him had dropped - quite possibly to near zero. Therefore his value dropped with it. Not to zero of course, but definitely lower. And the number of teams that we could trade him to was also lower (some talk for instance that he wasn't going to sign with any Cdn team).

Not sure what you're trying to argue here. There is little doubt that his value was depleted due to the situation. From that, we can speculate what that value might have become, but it's pretty pointless, because there are 3 assets involved and no one will ever agree on the exact value of any one of them.

All we can do is look at the trade and say the deal was:

Lindholm + Hanifin = Hamilton + Ferland + X, where X probably isn't very high (2nd or 3rd maybe)

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ interesting speculation (up two posts) that Bennett was the ask and Ferland the offer, rather than the converse, when you go on to say that the Canes had an issue with contracts for potential rather than for achievement.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ interesting speculation (up two posts) that Bennett was the ask and Ferland the offer, rather than the converse, when you go on to say that the Canes had an issue with contracts for potential rather than for achievement.

How so?

Bennett was on a second contract paying 1.9M instead of the monster deals his draft cohorts signed after putting up big numbers in their first few years.

[Galakanokis]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Dimensional?

So much for auto correct. Is that even a word?

Referring to my post not yours.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I think Fox, at the time of the trade, was by far the Flames' best prospect.
Now he's a top 3 defense prospect in all of hockey.

Disagree massively with this take and always have.

Valimaki >>> Fox and it wasn’t close. And there’s no way Fox is a top 3 defense prospect in hockey right now. You overrate him IMO

[Enoch Root]

Yeah that's crazy IMO.

I had him 4th among Flames' defensemen at the start of the season:

Valimaki
Andersson
Kylington
Fox

And considering that the 1st 3 are all playing in the NHL and looking good doing it, it is pretty hard to suggest that Fox is ahead of any of them.

Fox's skating and size are not an issue in the NCAA. But they will be an issue when he graduates to the NHL. Calling him a top 3 D prospect in all of hockey is over the top.

[Husky]

End of day Fox future will depend on his skating. Its average at best compared to NHL standards. Needs to improve it vastly. If he does he has the potential to be an offensive star.

[ramil600]

Meanwhile Adam Fox haven't signed with Canes by December 1st deadline, so he will not be eligible to play for them until the next season. Now he has 19 more months before he becomes UFA and can sign with anyone.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ramil600

Meanwhile Adam Fox haven't signed with Canes by December 1st deadline, so he will not be eligible to play for them until the next season. Now he has 19 more months before he becomes UFA and can sign with anyone.

If his college season ends he can sign and play games with the Hurricanes this year and burn the first year of his elc. Happens all the time that is what Johnny did years ago

[joejoe3]

So is Adum fox... Tom erixon 2.0?

[PsYcNeT]

I mean I like winning trades as much as the next guy, but ya'll know Fox is pacing to match or beat Gaudreau's Hobey Baker season right?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I mean I like winning trades as much as the next guy, but ya'll know Fox is pacing to match or beat Gaudreau's Hobey Baker season right?

That honestly doesn't mean much to me given Fox plays a different position. Are you suggesting Fox will be as good or better than Gaudreau?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by joejoe3

So is Adum fox... Tom erixon 2.0?

Not even close. Tom strung the flames along saying we would sign. Fox, through his agent, let it be known he was unlikely to sign in Calgary. All the rumours coming out now jive with him wanting to play on the east coast. Bob MacKenzie after the trade mentioned that he was more likely to sign a contract with an east coast team.

Hickey is in the same boat as fox.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I mean I like winning trades as much as the next guy, but ya'll know Fox is pacing to match or beat Gaudreau's Hobey Baker season right?

I could be wrong, but I don't know that Harvard has the quality of opponents that Boston College does.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by the2bears

That honestly doesn't mean much to me given Fox plays a different position. Are you suggesting Fox will be as good or better than Gaudreau?

Gaudreau did 80p in 40g.

Fox so far is 20p in 10g as a freaking dman. If you don't see why that's impressive and makes him a top d prospect league wide I don't know what to tell you.

[ThisYear]

Originally Posted by ramil600

Meanwhile Adam Fox haven't signed with Canes by December 1st deadline, so he will not be eligible to play for them until the next season. Now he has 19 more months before he becomes UFA and can sign with anyone.

The secret is out .... he'll return and sign with Calgary as a UFA.