Russia invades Ukraine

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The only real military option I see that's possible would be with Airpower and lots of it. And that's not likely to happen.


It would also likely cause a overwhelming response by Russia where they would attack staging airfields outside of the Ukraine.


But you could give air power and ground support to the Ukrainian Forces. Drop strategic road crossing bridges and railway line to hurt Russian Logistics. Attack Russian armored formations and go after Russian anti-air assets.


However the cost would be extremely high.

Any Western assets get involved and Putin will threaten the nuclear option.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

My bad. Just think its a point worth making. And I hope people acknowledge it. Its a good lesson in perspective.

I agree with the sentiment, but there are bombs falling on peoples' heads and speaking for myself, I just want a place to talk about what's actually happening on the ground in Ukraine and what the impacts of various actions are that are being taken in response without getting caught up in the usual domestic political squabbles.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Okay, I know this is a bit hypocritical given that I just talked about leaving the thread policing to the moderators, but for Christ's sake, can those who are obsessed with Trudeau or the Trucker Convoy or Jason Kenney and who feel the need to bring every discussion topic back around to those hobby horses please #### right off back to the Canadian Politics thread or the Alberta Politics thread or the Freedumb Convoy thread or literally anywhere else?

I really believe this kind of division has been executed over years at the behest of foreign powers. We are fighting among ourselves and this is all intertwined with Russia's global agenda.

It's linked because studies have shown that a huge percentage of right-wing and religious Facebook pages and groups are actually based in Eastern Europe and Russian bots/agents are sharing false information hat get repeated ad nauseum by their unwitting pawns supporting those causes over here in the west.

[peter12]

Russia doesn't have a global agenda.

[JoseCuervo]

Originally Posted by zamler

Ukraine will fall in short order.

From everything I am seeing on the internet Ukraine is putting up one hell of a fight. I don’t see Russia rolling over them very quickly.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by nik-

No one seemed to have a problem when Germany discussed securing their energy sources.

I’m confident you have the ability to see the difference if you care to, but I also don’t care into getting into a dumb back and forth about straightforward stuff.

[afc wimbledon]

I think its important to realise while Russia can roll through the Ukraine it doesnt have the manpower or resources to hold it, the Country is big and Russia is poor, the cost of this will likely bankrupt Russia

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by peter12

Any Western assets get involved and Putin will threaten the nuclear option.

The telegraph reported that He reiterated exactly this position this morning. Intervention = nuclear response.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...west-launches/

Whether this is just bluster or not is hard to say. He has to say this but could he actually justify/ get the military to agree to nuclear force without direct attacks on Russian soil?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I’m confident you have the ability to see the difference if you care to, but I also don’t care into getting into a dumb back and forth about straightforward stuff.

The difference is the length of the supply chain. Just because a politician is generally a clown doesn't mean that everything he says is wrong, or ill timed.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think its important to realise while Russia can roll through the Ukraine it doesnt have the manpower or resources to hold it, the Country is big and Russia is poor, the cost of this will likely bankrupt Russia

I think, overall, this is playing worse for Russia than Putin thought it would. Though I’m concerned about the outcome if he feels any desperation.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by peter12

Any Western assets get involved and Putin will threaten the nuclear option.

Yup he's basically said that if a single Nato boot steps in the Ukraine, that the nuclear option is on the table. Its up to the world if they want to test his resolve on that because once the Nuclear pandora's box is opened its going to be extremely hard to control it.


Lets say there is an air power option. NATO stages ground attack fighters out of Poland to be on call to the Ukrainian Military. Putin puts out a stern warning, don't do it. NATO pushes it and launches strikes and Putin nukes a Polish air field. Poland being under NATO falls under the specific rules that NATO has in terms of attacks with WMD (Remember in NATO's mind chemical=biological=nuclear). Nato is forced to retaliate. They to demonstrate resolve, nuke a logistics center in Russia for example to slow down the Russian advance and hopefully avoid civilian casualties.



Russia will retaliate outright, it might not be a nuke to a city. But maybe they drop nerve agents on Ukranian Military bases, or worse yet nuke it. things rapidly spiral and its only so long until Putin bombs a civilian center as a warning.

[zamler]

China says they are not going to rush to judgement and call what the Russian's are doing an invasion.

How unshocking can you get.

[Minnie]

Have to say, seeing the reports of the growing pushback from Russian citizens, is something. That's something that comes with some serious consequences.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Putin is not going to jump to the nuclear option. That's all bluster. He knows the second he launches a nuclear missile Russia will be a smoldering ruin. He's insane, but he isn't crazy.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Well, at the very least, this seems to suggest that notwithstanding traitors on Fox News offering sympathies to dictators, the GOP establishment isn't going to fight Biden if he wants to take the gloves off:

From NY Times: Speaking to reporters in Louisville, Ky., Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, called for maximum sanctions against Russia and for the United States to arm Ukrainians willing to fight.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think its important to realise while Russia can roll through the Ukraine it doesnt have the manpower or resources to hold it, the Country is big and Russia is poor, the cost of this will likely bankrupt Russia

Russia isn't going to occupy it for long. They'll install a friendly government. lavishly equip and train a new Ukrainian Military, secret police and police force.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think its important to realise while Russia can roll through the Ukraine it doesnt have the manpower or resources to hold it, the Country is big and Russia is poor, the cost of this will likely bankrupt Russia

It feels like an attack on Ukraine’s government. If he can get the government toppled, Putin probably gets a puppet government installed, similar to what is the situation in Belarus. Isn’t the ex president Yanukovyic in Russia currently?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Minnie

Have to say, seeing the reports of the growing pushback from Russian citizens, is something. That's something that comes with some serious consequences.

Reports of Ukrainians putting up a hell of a fight, and Russians back home unifying and condemning the offensive gives me some hope and optimism that the violence may end soon.

I hope the Russian troops are becoming demoralized and surrender or mutiny.

[Trojan97]

Question re: SWIFT. Does the US really risk cutting Russia off and sending them deeper into China's pockets with things like alternative digital payment systems, crypto, etc? I can't imagine the US is keen on either of those countries learning how to live without the heavy reliance on the US dollar that currently exists. This stuff is far beyond my level of understanding in most cases but it does seem like a bit of a slippery slope.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Russia isn't going to occupy it for long. They'll install a friendly government. lavishly equip and train a new Ukrainian Military, secret police and police force.

That would take several years, they dont have the money or the manpower