[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[burn_this_city]

Sleepy Joe and the Basement Brigade.

[flylock shox]

I think all bets are off as to which states are determinative now, unless PA comes down 100k in Biden's favour, which would seal it. Otherwise we face the likelihood that several close states go to recounts, or the remaining ballots flip one or more of them, so we can't know which ones are "must wins" for Biden yet. In theory, he could lose AZ and NV and PA, but win the election with GA. Plus NC is still on pause.

Basically, the only certainty right now is that there will be lawsuits and recounts before this is done done.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

I would not be the least surprised if the measure of victory in GA ends up being in the hundreds rather than the thousands. Regardless, a recount there is inevitable. That will prolong things even further.

Yup. VERY likely to be under 5,000m and a good chance that it will be under 1,000.

My prediction that it will be under 1,000.

Regardless, it is a certainty of a recount. Fortunately, it isn't likely to matter because PA is probably going blue.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by edslunch

2022 starts next week....

[browna]

Originally Posted by Looch City

I find that absolutely hilarious. Y'all are out of jobs and in the middle of a pandemic....BUT GIMME MORE MONEY NOW! Yes even after the election I need more!

Might as well say no covid-relief funds until you pay more haha

Biden's campaign has sent similar emails asking for support in the past day and a half.

[MarchHare]

Update on the state of the electoral college:

I'm going to assume AZ remains undetermined at this moment. I know Fox News and the Associated Press have already called it for Biden, but I think that was premature. That doesn't necessarily mean Trump will win AZ, it just means it's not a done deal for Biden yet. I'm also going to put AK in Trump's column even though nobody has called it yet.

So that leaves AZ, GA, NC, NV, and PA in play. Trump has one path to victory only: win every remaining state except Nevada.

Biden becomes president in any of these scenarios:

1. He wins PA
2. He wins any two of AZ, NV, GA, NC

We get the nightmare scenario of a 269-269 tie if Biden wins GA and Trump sweeps the remaining states.

[djsFlames]

Gap officially a touch over 13,000 in GA.

God I hope GA and PA are counted by tonight....

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

it's a coin flip



as is Georgia



PA is probably the most likely of the 3 of them

Arizona isn't decided but it can't be a coin flip. At 86% counted he has a 2.4% lead. There has to be way better than 50/50 odds that Biden takes it.

[vegasbound]

Has there been any new numbers from PA lately?

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Minnie

If Biden wins this, the new American Politics discussion thread should be titled "American Politics Thread: Biden Time."

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by vegasbound

Has there been any new numbers from PA lately?

Just posted on the 538 blog:

GEOFFREY SKELLEY
NOV. 5, 2:24 PM
Another small batch of Pennsylvania ballots has been reported in Lehigh County (home of Allentown), and once again Biden is winning enough of them to possibly take the lead in the Keystone State. Around 4,500 ballots came in there, and Biden won close to 4 in 5 of these newly reported votes. Trump’s lead is now 1.7 points, 50.2 percent to 48.5 percent, or about 111,000 votes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Biden is now 1/10 on some the betting sites for PA.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by chedder

Arizona isn't decided but it can't be a coin flip. At 86% counted he has a 2.4% lead. There has to be way better than 50/50 odds that Biden takes it.

The pace we have been on for the past 48 hours or so is a freight train to a virtual toss-up. We will see if that continues, but that has been the pace.

[IliketoPuck]

When (not if) Biden wins this I'm taking a very, very, very long break from American politics.

"May you live in exciting times" has far too often been the defining refrain the last four years.

Looking forward to the opposite.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

When (not if) Biden wins this I'm taking a very, very, very long break from American politics.

"May you live in exciting times" has far too often been the defining refrain the last four years.

Looking forward to the opposite.

I'll take a 2 months break. Wake me up when there's a new tenant in the White House in January and we have some kind of sanity again.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Minnie

If Biden wins this, the new American Politics discussion thread should be titled "American Politics Thread: Biden Time."

Good-Biden Orange Man.

[MarchHare]

More from 538:

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 5, 2:33 PM
Biden would need to win only 60 percent of the outstanding vote (mostly mail-in ballots) in Pennsylvania in order to carry the state. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari, Biden had won 78 percent of the mail votes counted as of this morning.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Update on the state of the electoral college:

I'm going to assume AZ remains undetermined at this moment. I know Fox News and the Associated Press have already called it for Biden, but I think that was premature. That doesn't necessarily mean Trump will win AZ, it just means it's not a done deal for Biden yet. I'm also going to put AK in Trump's column even though nobody has called it yet.

So that leaves AZ, GA, NC, NV, and PA in play. Trump has one path to victory only: win every remaining state except Nevada.

Biden becomes president in any of these scenarios:

1. He wins PA
2. He wins any two of AZ, NV, GA, NC

We get the nightmare scenario of a 269-269 tie if Biden wins GA and Trump sweeps the remaining states.

I probably shouldn't put so much trust in the AP, but I am assuming Arizona is already won for Biden and we are just waiting on Nevada to be called.

Winning Georgia and/or Pennsylvania would really help lessen the uncertainty of inevitable recounts and lawyering that is going to happen though.

If Biden only wins 270, we won't hear the end of it until Biden is actually sworn in.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I probably shouldn't put so much trust in the AP, but I am assuming Arizona is already won for Biden and we are just waiting on Nevada to be called.

Winning Georgia and/or Pennsylvania would really help lessen the uncertainty of inevitable recounts and lawyering that is going to happen though.

If Biden only wins 270, we won't hear the end of it until Biden is actually sworn in.

I think both Nevada and Pennsylvania are much more likely than Arizona. From what it looks like, the outstanding votes in Arizona will lean more Republican, while it's the opposite in the other states.

[Scornfire]

The worst part of this whole debacle has been observing some of my friends fall deeper and deeper down the rabbithole of Qanon, I literally don't have enough time in the day anymore to correct/debunk all the tripe they've been posting, and you'd think being objectively wrong so often might give them pause for reflection but it just seems to give them a bigger chip on their shoulder, maybe that's my fault, but I'm not sure I really ####ing care