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Old 10-11-2022, 08:31 AM   #281
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Putting the most recent first rounders aside due to time ... the Flames really haven't had a full on 1st round bust since Erixon or Nemisz

Tkachuk, Bennett, Monahan all players. Jankowski didn't wow, but he's played 272 games. Baertschi 292 games and derailed by concussions.

Valimaki has 82 games and may get more, but bust if he doesn't I guess. Erixon 93 games, Nemisz 15

Backlund the year before that.
Do Poirier and Klimchuk count as 1st? Or are you leaving them out because they were drafted lower in the same draft as Monahan?
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Old 10-11-2022, 08:39 AM   #282
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Do Poirier and Klimchuk count as 1st? Or are you leaving them out because they were drafted lower in the same draft as Monahan?
No that's fair ... I was skimming along looking at the 1st rounders every year and omitted the year they had three.
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Old 10-11-2022, 10:52 AM   #283
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Good for him. Wonder how many teams had claims on him? Did flames think he was going to pass through waivers?

Weird they wouldn't trade him for a pick
Another team wouldn't want to jump the gun in case something more enticing came along these final waiver wires.

I doubt anyone would give a pick...more likely an undesirable contract in the minors to offset the actual $$ and contract slot. And even then a GM might be reluctant to have the trade on their resume when there is any chance the outgoing player (Valimaki in this case) could potentially turn into something.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:41 AM   #284
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No that's fair ... I was skimming along looking at the 1st rounders every year and omitted the year they had three.
Their impact was pretty darn forgettable, so easy to forget them when they were part of the same draft as Monahan who was important to the organization.

disclosure: I forgot about them too until I was looking at all of the Flames 1st rounders and noticed them.

Side Note: This organization has been relatively dismal when picking first rounders. That is without comparison to other organizations though. I'd like to see how they stack up against the rest of the league.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:47 AM   #285
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Their impact was pretty darn forgettable, so easy to forget them when they were part of the same draft as Monahan who was important to the organization.
Additionally I tend to avoid the label of bust for late round draft picks. Their hit rate is pretty low.

Did you first round pick play? No ... bust. I get that it's a fact.

But having a top ten or even top 15 pick not work out is so much more impactful on the scouting group.

True busts in recent times ...

2010 Rangers McIlrath (10)
2011 Avalanche Siemens (11)
2012 Islanders Reinhart (4) Ha Ha Oilers
2013 Flyers Morin (11)
2014 Islanders Dal Colle (5)
2015 Bruins Aboril (13)
2016 Canucks Juloevi (5), Buffalo Nylander (8), Carolina Bean? (13)
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Old 10-11-2022, 12:02 PM   #286
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Additionally I tend to avoid the label of bust for late round draft picks. Their hit rate is pretty low.

Did you first round pick play? No ... bust. I get that it's a fact.

But having a top ten or even top 15 pick not work out is so much more impactful on the scouting group.

True busts in recent times ...

2010 Rangers McIlrath (10)
2011 Avalanche Siemens (11)
2012 Islanders Reinhart (4) Ha Ha Oilers
2013 Flyers Morin (11)
2014 Islanders Dal Colle (5)
2015 Bruins Aboril (13)
2016 Canucks Juloevi (5), Buffalo Nylander (8), Carolina Bean? (13)
2012 Yakupov: the gold standard of busts since 2010
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Old 10-11-2022, 12:12 PM   #287
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Additionally I tend to avoid the label of bust for late round draft picks. Their hit rate is pretty low.

Did you first round pick play? No ... bust. I get that it's a fact.

But having a top ten or even top 15 pick not work out is so much more impactful on the scouting group.

True busts in recent times ...

2010 Rangers McIlrath (10)
2011 Avalanche Siemens (11)
2012 Islanders Reinhart (4) Ha Ha Oilers
2013 Flyers Morin (11)
2014 Islanders Dal Colle (5)
2015 Bruins Aboril (13)
2016 Canucks Juloevi (5), Buffalo Nylander (8), Carolina Bean? (13)
I agree but I think you also need to hit on some of the late 1sts and early 2nds.

Between 2003 to 2009 the Flames drafted
- 7 1st rounders, of which 6 were in the 20s
- Of those 20 players picked they got 1 NHLer (Backlund)
- And then you compound that by only drafting in the 2nd twice in that same stretch (and missing on both: Wahl and Ramholt)

That just obliterates your asset base even when you are win now mode.

I realize that was under a previous regime, and thankfully things have improved since, but just illustrating the need to make good on at least some of those top 2 round picks. That stretch of bad drafting really hamstrung the team.
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Old 10-11-2022, 01:00 PM   #288
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Old 10-11-2022, 01:57 PM   #289
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Additionally I tend to avoid the label of bust for late round draft picks. Their hit rate is pretty low.

Did you first round pick play? No ... bust. I get that it's a fact.

But having a top ten or even top 15 pick not work out is so much more impactful on the scouting group.

True busts in recent times ...

2010 Rangers McIlrath (10)
2011 Avalanche Siemens (11)
2012 Islanders Reinhart (4) Ha Ha Oilers
2013 Flyers Morin (11)
2014 Islanders Dal Colle (5)
2015 Bruins Aboril (13)
2016 Canucks Juloevi (5), Buffalo Nylander (8), Carolina Bean? (13)
Don't think Bean belongs there. He's already at 111gp and he's got 2 years left at 2.33M and CBJ has not waived him. He's likely to be a full time NHLer for at least a few years and get to Janko/Baertschi territory
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Old 10-11-2022, 02:09 PM   #290
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Don't think Bean belongs there. He's already at 111gp and he's got 2 years left at 2.33M and CBJ has not waived him. He's likely to be a full time NHLer for at least a few years and get to Janko/Baertschi territory
Yeah I had a question mark after him because it was iffy to include him.
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Old 10-11-2022, 02:23 PM   #291
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Additionally I tend to avoid the label of bust for late round draft picks. Their hit rate is pretty low.

Did you first round pick play? No ... bust. I get that it's a fact.

But having a top ten or even top 15 pick not work out is so much more impactful on the scouting group.

True busts in recent times ...

2010 Rangers McIlrath (10)
2011 Avalanche Siemens (11)
2012 Islanders Reinhart (4) Ha Ha Oilers
2013 Flyers Morin (11)
2014 Islanders Dal Colle (5)
2015 Bruins Aboril (13)
2016 Canucks Juloevi (5), Buffalo Nylander (8), Carolina Bean? (13)

The 2016 draft was interesting, I can see why Buffalo drafted Nylander, because of the name and his brother was doing pretty well. I don't know anything about bean but Juloevi? What was their GM thinking?
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Old 10-11-2022, 06:48 PM   #292
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The 2016 draft was interesting, I can see why Buffalo drafted Nylander, because of the name and his brother was doing pretty well. I don't know anything about bean but Juloevi? What was their GM thinking?
I figured Joe Levi was a safe pick with a high floor and low ceiling. Not a great high 1st but probably a guarantee to be a middle pair guy.
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