Francis: Tire Fire

[direwolf]

This thread has gone completely bats**t.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think fans are getting overly excited about this end of season swoon as for 3/4 of the season they were good enough to be in the playoff race despite a coaching staff that hindered success. Things don't need to be blown up. Sure a player like Brodie can be moved for some offensive help and there will be some shuffling in the bottom 6 but the team is close and only needs better coaching and a few tweaks. The talk of trading Gaudreau, Hamilton, Monahan, etc is ludicrous.

The Flames have been choking in big games for a couple seasons now. But hey, if you want to believe this team has a Cup contending core and the only problem is coaching, I guess we'll find out next season.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Subban makes $9M. He's won a Norris trophy, he went to the finals his first year in Nashville and they're one of the top teams in the league. Subban has 94 points as a Predator, and he's only a year older than Brodie.

No way no how does PK Subban have a bad contract, especially when you look at what Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty are about to get.

I think your mixing him up with those three, kind of apples to oranges. Nevertheless, the point stands, a trade of one of your best players made to shake things up that did not work out. A good GM does not look to trade his best players, he waits for another one in an apparent bad scenario who is looking to trade his.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

As a guy that doesn't like the player why would you want to get into stats for a defenseman that leads the league in goals, is 3rd in the league in CF%, 3rd in relative corsi, is 20th in the league in expected goals for over against and 4th in the league in expected plus minus?

He's a virtual run of the table in almost any statistic.

All those stats (outside of goal scoring) are based on him trying to shoot (mainly unsuccessfully) all the time.

4th in the league in expect +/-. ???? Are you making stuff up?

Why have a stat to measure expected +/- when there already is a Plus minus stat?

Just for fun what would have Joe Morrow's expected plus/minus have been while on the Habs .... His actual was -11 in 38 games. moving to the Jets he is +5 in 11 games. If expected +/- could predict that he would be a plus player on a different team it would be a great way to build a defense for 4th round picks.

What was Justin Schultz's expected +/- on the Oilers?

Right now it would appear that trading a 3rd or 4th round pick for a 25 year old d-man would be better than the prospects the Flames are developing.

hint trade 4th round picks for D-men not 1st and a pair of seconds.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

All those stats (outside of goal scoring) are based on him trying to shoot (mainly unsuccessfully) all the time.

4th in the league in expect +/-. ???? Are you making stuff up?

That's quite an accusation. Classy.

I'd suggest it's probably a bit dangerous of insinuating someone is making up a stat just because you haven't heard of it.

It's called XG+/- (expected goals +/-) and is widely used, buy yeah I made up

To the rest ... no it's not just shot data.

The two are ranked 1/2 in NHL defenseman for shot attempts, but you'll ignore that.

They're ranked 1/2 in scoring chance splits, which is a lot more detailed than just shot attempts.

They're ranked 3/4 in high danger chances, which is even more specific than scoring chances.

Ranked 1/2 in shots that get through, not shot attempts.

Heck even if you want to disregard all the above, Hamilton is ranked 39th in on ice goal splits (actual results) which puts him as a clear cut #2 defenseman league wide, and to many he's unlucky as hell to be ranked that low.

I get it ... you wait in the weeds until things aren't going well for the Flames and then you unleash one of your assaults on the team, the GM, specific players, and always Hamilton.

But it's not that hard to a) see through and b) refute

[GioforPM]

What player doesn't shoot unsuccessfully most of the time?

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I get it ... you wait in the weeds until things aren't going well for the Flames and then you unleash one of your assaults on the team, the GM, specific players, and always Hamilton.

But it's not that hard to a) see through and b) refute

Ricardodw’s Relentless Rubbish!

....that’s the name of that tune.

[Scroopy Noopers]

What's the expected over/under for who wins this argument?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Why have a stat to measure expected +/- when there already is a Plus minus stat?

I'll take this as serious question.

Because hockey is, like all sports to some degree, a random game, with results which don't always follow the actual skill level of the game, it's good to have stats which try and measure what you would have expected to occur with average randomness.

As you say, anyone can look at the results and come to whatever conclusion you want to based on those results.

If you are of the view that player X is better than player Y simply because he scored 1 more goal than the other, look no further.

But if you are trying to predict what will happen in future games, there are actually better predictors of a teams likely future results than its current record.

Same for players.

Karlsson has close to a 25 % shooting percentage this year.

The odds are pretty good that he'll never smell 40 goals again. If I owned him in a keeper fantasy pool, I'd be trading him to you.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's quite an accusation. Classy.

I'd suggest it's probably a bit dangerous of insinuating someone is making up a stat just because you haven't heard of it.

It's called XG+/- (expected goals +/-) and is widely used, buy yeah I made up

To the rest ... no it's not just shot data.

The two are ranked 1/2 in NHL defenseman for shot attempts, but you'll ignore that.

They're ranked 1/2 in scoring chance splits, which is a lot more detailed than just shot attempts.

They're ranked 3/4 in high danger chances, which is even more specific than scoring chances.

Ranked 1/2 in shots that get through, not shot attempts.

Heck even if you want to disregard all the above, Hamilton is ranked 39th in on ice goal splits (actual results) which puts him as a clear cut #2 defenseman league wide, and to many he's unlucky as hell to be ranked that low.

I get it ... you wait in the weeds until things aren't going well for the Flames and then you unleash one of your assaults on the team, the GM, specific players, and always Hamilton.

But it's not that hard to a) see through and b) refute

total apology... I was trying to be humourous

I made the assumption that you would not be making stuff up..

sorry

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's quite an accusation. Classy.

I'd suggest it's probably a bit dangerous of insinuating someone is making up a stat just because you haven't heard of it.

It's called XG+/- (expected goals +/-) and is widely used, buy yeah I made up

To the rest ... no it's not just shot data.

The two are ranked 1/2 in NHL defenseman for shot attempts, but you'll ignore that.

They're ranked 1/2 in scoring chance splits, which is a lot more detailed than just shot attempts.

They're ranked 3/4 in high danger chances, which is even more specific than scoring chances.

Ranked 1/2 in shots that get through, not shot attempts.

Heck even if you want to disregard all the above, Hamilton is ranked 39th in on ice goal splits (actual results) which puts him as a clear cut #2 defenseman league wide, and to many he's unlucky as hell to be ranked that low.

I get it ... you wait in the weeds until things aren't going well for the Flames and then you unleash one of your assaults on the team, the GM, specific players, and always Hamilton.

But it's not that hard to a) see through and b) refute

first of all what 2 are you referring to?

where would one look up the rankings of XG +/-

what is an on ice goal split and how is that ranked? What would luck have to do with the ranking? Is that the same as saying if Gaudreau was a bit luckier he would win the scoring Title?

Last year I was on board with the surging Flames and placed wagers in Vegas on them doing well in the playoffs.

Not this year.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

You left out isn't a good team on the ice either!

With JT they might be.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Mike Smith also has a great wrist shot. Maybe we should try him up on the top line...

Ha, I can imagine all the suicide passes.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I think that the average NHL team speed has increase drastically over the last couple of years. Players that were considered adequate skaters a few years ago have been passed by players who are faster and better skaters.


There are not as many Flames players that would be able to play at the pace that Nashville plays that you think. Somehow the good teams have found and developed faster larger angrier players than the Flames and the lower echelon of the NHL have settled for.

That is fair. Mike Gartner would still be considered fast today. Guys aren’t blowing out speed records across the board. Top guys aren’t necessarily faster, but speed at the bottom end is more important.

But teams like Nashville that play fast recognize that the puck moves faster than skaters. And you need to think the game fast and respond to it. So that could help the Flames mitigate their issues, but they have regressed on both fronts the past 2 years. Individual speed and collective speed of play. So disappointing

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by timbit

Fake news and absolute cherry picking. Nashville’s D is elite offensively ... number 1 in the league.

Flames collective D scoring ranks very high in the league. ( top quarter.)

D scoring was most certainly not an issue with the team.

LOL

The Flames were not top quarter, they are in fact in the bottom third of the league - 22nd overall to be exact.

And interestingly, all 16 teams currently in the playoffs, plus the 2 9th place teams are ALL ahead of the Flames in points from defensemen.

I have posted this in past years - the teams that make the playoffs are invariably the teams with the most points from defensemen. Most years it is 14 or 15 of the top D-scoring teams that are in the playoffs.

And that is true again this year.

And the Flames aren't even close.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Gio is declining from where he was a few years ago but he's still very effective and the most dependable defender on the team. I just can't see Treliving even considering moving him seeing how there's already a bit of a leadership void amongst this group.

I think fans are getting overly excited about this end of season swoon as for 3/4 of the season they were good enough to be in the playoff race despite a coaching staff that hindered success. Things don't need to be blown up. Sure a player like Brodie can be moved for some offensive help and there will be some shuffling in the bottom 6 but the team is close and only needs better coaching and a few tweaks. The talk of trading Gaudreau, Hamilton, Monahan, etc is ludicrous.

Agree 100%

Overreacting and trying to completely re-build the roster is exactly the mentality this GM group should NOT have.

Don't sell low and over react to a stretch (Post 7 day break - Jan 19th) that has been really painful as a fan but has also been a bit misleading due to a piss poor shooting and save percentage . (10-15-6, 6.68% Shooting Percentage - 31st, .890 Save Percentage 30th)

New Coach, Top 6 Forward, Younger & Faster in the Bottom 6/Bottom Pairing

Do those 3 things.

Hire a proven coach.

Move Stone for some assets that can help get a top 6 forward (even if it's just cap space to sign one).

Promote Mangiapane, Klimchuk, Andersson.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Nope, /tangibles/. One team's D are asked to participate offensively, the other team's D are asked to stick to the walls and support the forwards.

Nashville (72GP) D scoring leaders:
Subban - 51
Josi - 47
Ellis - 24 in 34GP
Ekholm - 31
Emelin - 9
Weber - 5

Calgary (75GP) D scoring leaders:
Hamilton - 43
Giordano - 37
Brodie - 32
Hamonic - 11
Kulak - 8
Stone - 6


Do the math. And the dropoff to our #4 is striking, because we thought leaders / defensive defenseman matter (they don't)

It more our abysmal PP that creates that difference.

Look at even strength scoring.

Nashville (72GP) D scoring leaders:
Subban - 31
Josi - 29
Ellis - 19 in 34GP
Ekholm - 18
Emelin - 8
Weber - 5

Calgary (75GP) D scoring leaders:
Hamilton - 31
Giordano - 26
Brodie - 21
Hamonic - 11
Kulak - 8
Stone - 6

Big difference is really the second pairing - and namely Ellis. And even with Ellis that's tough since he's only be on the roster during a time that Nashville has been on fire. Last year he had 24 ES points all year.

[Enoch Root]

This thread is a testament to the fact that fans are far too impatient, and far too focused on the 'what have you done for me lately?' Canadian fans will never be patient enough to have nice things.

Flames didn't score enough goals this year? - trade all the good players!

Building a winning team takes patience. Some years it doesn't all come together. But that doesn't mean you tear it down each time - you evaluate what went wrong, and where you are weak, and try and improve those areas.

Trade Gaudreau? Trade Giordano? FFS, those were our two best players this year.

How the #### are you supposed to build a winner if you panic every season, and throw the baby, the dog, and your mother, out with the bathwater?

[taco.vidal]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This thread is a testament to the fact that fans are far too impatient, and far too focused on the 'what have you done for me lately?' Canadian fans will never be patient enough to have nice things.

Flames didn't score enough goals this year? - trade all the good players!

Building a winning team takes patience. Some years it doesn't all come together. But that doesn't mean you tear it down each time - you evaluate what went wrong, and where you are weak, and try and improve those areas.

Trade Gaudreau? Trade Giordano? FFS, those were our two best players this year.

How the #### are you supposed to build a winner if you panic every season, and throw the baby, the dog, and your mother, out with the bathwater?

How much patience should fans have? This team hasnt done anything lately. This team has been mediocre for decades minus an exciting run in 2004. The Flames have some interesting pieces but so do a lot of other mediocre teams. The Flames also have a lot of big holes, maybe more holes than interesting pieces.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Agree 100%

Overreacting and trying to completely re-build the roster is exactly the mentality this GM group should NOT have.

Don't sell low and over react to a stretch (Post 7 day break - Jan 19th) that has been really painful as a fan but has also been a bit misleading due to a piss poor shooting and save percentage . (10-15-6, 6.68% Shooting Percentage - 31st, .890 Save Percentage 30th)

New Coach, Top 6 Forward, Younger & Faster in the Bottom 6/Bottom Pairing

Do those 3 things.

Hire a proven coach.

Move Stone for some assets that can help get a top 6 forward (even if it's just cap space to sign one).

Promote Mangiapane, Klimchuk, Andersson.

Firstly, yes all day long on the coach. This guy is awful.

A top 6 forward? It will take more than that. If the Flames are a good team they only have 3-4.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk...

Backlund - Frolik - x is a third line on a good team.

Make your case that either Backlund is, or Bennett could be a top 6 guy.

Some people considering if Hamilton should be traded are thinking about what it would take to get a legit top winger.

Stone may create cap space but he doesn’t get you a top winger. Not even if you throw in all of your garbage like Brouwer, Stajan, Shinkaruk, whatever Brodie has become under Gulutzan, etc.

And why Hamilton? Because the question is legitimate if he has the compete to play D well. Everybody knows he can score. Nobody knows if he can play hard enough to defend at clutch times when he is matched against a hard opponent. Again, Boston fans asked those questions. Dougie does not play like Chara, Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand. Can he be coached to? Or is that an inner fire?

Hamilton is an asset with a value. The flames need a correspondingly valuable asset that is not coming back for their garbage.