They only do when it's a Sanders/Trump matchup, where somehow Bernie is 15 points up. But I very much doubt that holds when it gets to a real matchup instead of a hypothetical. I also think Trump runs over Sanders in a general and makes him look old and weak. You can say that shouldn't matter, but it clearly does to a lot of Americans. Hillary is in a tie in most H2H with Trump right now, and she has 9 months of landmines to avoid. She's crafty (and a liar) so maybe she can do it, but if she steps on even one she's probably done.
I guess I'm refusing to give American voters credit, whereas other people think that America will be like Canada and won't really fall for it when the chips are down. We'll see, but American voters do not deserve the benefit of the doubt. They tend to pretty consistently vote against their own interests. It's on them to prove me otherwise, not for me to trust they won't elect a maniac like Trump.
There's a good run down of Trump's favorability ratings, but they've been aaawwwwffful among the whole electorate all along. That is far more predictive than head to head polling. In fact, at this early stage of the election, there's zero predictive power for head to head poling.
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They only do when it's a Sanders/Trump matchup, where somehow Bernie is 15 points up. But I very much doubt that holds when it gets to a real matchup instead of a hypothetical. I also think Trump runs over Sanders in a general and makes him look old and weak. You can say that shouldn't matter, but it clearly does to a lot of Americans. Hillary is in a tie in most H2H with Trump right now, and she has 9 months of landmines to avoid. She's crafty (and a liar) so maybe she can do it, but if she steps on even one she's probably done.
I guess I'm refusing to give American voters credit, whereas other people think that America will be like Canada and won't really fall for it when the chips are down. We'll see, but American voters do not deserve the benefit of the doubt. They tend to pretty consistently vote against their own interests. It's on them to prove me otherwise, not for me to trust they won't elect a maniac like Trump.
A write in or 3rd party candidate has never performed well in a general election. I don't expect 2016 to be any different.
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A write in or 3rd party candidate has never performed well in a general election. I don't expect 2016 to be any different.
Well that's bad news for Ted Cruz or Ted Nugent or whoever the 3rd party candidate will be. As to the GOP nominee Donald Trump, I think he's ok. The establishment is now ripping on Cruz because they'd rather have Trump. Even old ass Bob Dole says Trump is preferable to Cruz. Barring a total collapse by the Donald, or some GOP shenanigans, I think it's pretty much 90% assured Trump is their nominee.
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Rubio is clearly the best Republican candidate. Everyone else is antediluvian, by comparison. Not sure a calm, selectively-nostalgic President is what Republicans want.
Ben Carson's rapid diminution after his rapid cascade of gaffes shows that Republicans aren't just stupid or ignorant but have specific political goals in mind. Understanding those goals, and their motives is important to understanding why Trump is so popular.
To step away from the gong show a minute I was curious as to opinions on this
Sanders appears to be the candidate who is the closest thing to an advocate that people of colour have available in this election yet it seems that he's the only candidate being targeted regarding matters of race. From BLM interrupting his events to now The Atlantic taking him to task regarding reparations why is it that the one person who on "their side"(to put it that way) is the one being questioned? I don't see the endgame here. He's not liberal enough? I don't recall even the current president being taken to task regarding reparations and you'd think that might be a thing.
What’s clear: Despite a lack of national momentum, and attention in debates or national coverage, Kasich has started performing better in New Hampshire, where he has staked the hopes of his presidential campaign. After he languished in the polls for much of the fall, several recent surveys have shown him in second place in the Granite State, behind billionaire Donald Trump.
To step away from the gong show a minute I was curious as to opinions on this
Sanders appears to be the candidate who is the closest thing to an advocate that people of colour have available in this election yet it seems that he's the only candidate being targeted regarding matters of race. From BLM interrupting his events to now The Atlantic taking him to task regarding reparations why is it that the one person who on "their side"(to put it that way) is the one being questioned? I don't see the endgame here. He's not liberal enough? I don't recall even the current president being taken to task regarding reparations and you'd think that might be a thing.
Vocal liberals are famously judgemental.
Plus I'm sure a ton of it is standard strategical mudslinging from his enemies.
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I'm still stunned the media, even the conservative media, doesn't understand all this does is help Trump. Cannot believe they haven't figured out to ignore him, but he's making the media money so they don't care. And I mean the first name is Glenn Beck. Way to immediately undermine yourself.
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I'm still stunned the media, even the conservative media, doesn't understand all this does is help Trump. Cannot believe they haven't figured out to ignore him, but he's making the media money so they don't care. And I mean the first name is Glenn Beck. Way to immediately undermine yourself.
Not that I feel Beck is credible, but the names of the authors are listed alphabetically.
Trump is giving voice to anger, and that's the only thing he's doing. There is a large proportion of Americans who are angry about a number of things. That the America they felt they were promised has not materialized, that their wages have been stagnant for years, that they 'have' to be politically correct. That Earth Day is a thing, and incandescent bulbs are gone.
Mainly it's the first thing though. The 'American Dream' of work hard and you'll be rewarded with prosperity has failed. There are a whole slew of reasons for this and both Liberal and Conservative solutions have been offered.
That anger has become directed at Government. Palin was the first appearance of it, her "pitbull with lipstick" thing resonated with an anger which hadn't simmered to the surface yet.
The Tea Party was the second manifestation. 'Elect us and we'll stop Obama' they promised. Then they didn't (as far as the average voter is concerned) the GOP is the same as the Dems, is the rallying cry of the 'base.'
And now along comes Trump. He's not a conservative, has no policy positions really, and does not present anything substantive, ever. But he is MAD. And people identify with that, the feeling of "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore." So he's got them, they connect emotionally, then they see him get attacked, and, since they identify with Trump, they are attacked.
Now cognitive bias kicks in, a bunker mentality develops and Trump supporters are now personally emotionally invested in his success, they can't desert him because that might mean they have to examine their own thinking or biases. He's got them, they're locked in.
But that's all he's got. He has that section of the electorate which have already emotionally committed to him and no one else. That's a road-map to a bunch of early primary wins, a contested convention, and a compromise, establishment candidate coming out of the convention.
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Rubio is clearly the best Republican candidate. Everyone else is antediluvian, by comparison. Not sure a calm, selectively-nostalgic President is what Republicans want.
Ben Carson's rapid diminution after his rapid cascade of gaffes shows that Republicans aren't just stupid or ignorant but have specific political goals in mind. Understanding those goals, and their motives is important to understanding why Trump is so popular.
He would be the wests version of Putin, if the population of the US don't trust their government now just wait if this guy becomes chief. we are talking about a guy who loves the rich and thinks the poor should help keep the rich wealthy. He also opposes abortion 100% even in cases of rape and incest and voted against the violence against women act.
He also flip-flops and changes his mind on issues weekly, he's worst than Trump.
"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and wouldn't lose any voters, ok? It's, like, incredible." —Donald Trump, who is currently the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, insulting the intelligence of his own supporters.
He really, really said that. Those words require no context whatsoever. Between Cruz and Der Donald, this is some of the truly scariest comedy I've ever seen.
I am with the Senator. You guys are seriously underestimating the Donald's chances. He is the only candidate in the field that generates excitement, much like Obama 8 years ago... for good or ill. And, as the Senator said, the majority of voters on both sides are morons, so to dismiss his supporters as "idiots" is foolhardy. Just because your hipster friends are all horrified doesn't mean a thing - think about those Democratic voters in Flint - Trump is their kind of guy... And don't underestimate the celebrity factor...
I am with the Senator. You guys are seriously underestimating the Donald's chances. He is the only candidate in the field that generates excitement, much like Obama 8 years ago... for good or ill. And, as the Senator said, the majority of voters on both sides are morons, so to dismiss his supporters as "idiots" is foolhardy. Just because your hipster friends are all horrified doesn't mean a thing - think about those Democratic voters in Flint - Trump is their kind of guy... And don't underestimate the celebrity factor...
Your underestimating how un-likeable he is. While he enraptures the angry mob, no one with his unfavorabilty has ever been elected. He's not the first with this shtick to get this far. All he'll do is submarine the GOP's chances of taking the Whitehouse
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I would not be surprised to see a Kasich-Rubio or Rubio-Kasich ticket from the Republicans. A young firebrand and an established milktoast conservative to provide balance could be the recipe for success. Plus, they cover two swing states that usually decide the election. Lots of pluses from this combo.
On the other side of the coin, how would a Sanders-Warren ticket sound? This would be a liberal's wet dream and really be a slap in the face to the big money politicians type. Both are very focused on the little guy rather than the corporations that drive Washington. Warren would provide the bump from the women voters that might be alienated if Clinton doesn't get the nod. Would make a really interesting election.
