Rasmus Andersson watch — Will he stay or will he go?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I said the same above.

He was last on the team in xGA60

But his plus minus is massively affected by the fact the team didn't finish when he was on the ice to the same degree as they created.

So if you're going to walk out plus/minus as the dagger it's pretty easy to dig in and see there's more to the story.

Then it goes back to prevention and having the toughest minutes and what that should mean. He's playing 15% more minutes against elite talent than weegar ... should his expected goals/60 be 15% higher?

Not sure to be honest ... it's not a simple equation.

But the plus minus discussion is pretty superficial when you dig in and look deeper.

What about the breakdown of quality of teammate and who is on the ice when you play against elite talent. Just using ice time and plus minus here is another story.

Weegar & Rasmus both had 1575 ES Ice:

Backlund with Weegar - 410 mins with +8 702 mins without -3
Backlund with Rasmus - 531 mins with -8 581 mins without +13

Kadri & Weegar - 561 mins with +4 780 mins without -18
Kadri & Rasmus - 492 mins with -26 849 mins without +12

Frost & Weegar - 150 mins with -3 287 mins without -3
Frost & Rasmus - 154 mins with -4 282 mins without -2

Rooney & Weegar - 189 mins with -2 332 mins without -5
Rooney & Rasmus - 159 mins with -5 363 mins without -2

Weegar's #1 D partner was Hanley at 629 mins & #2 was Miromanov at 567 mins

Hanley with 629 mins +13
Hanley without 281 mins -2

Miromanov with 567 mins +6
Miromanov without 186 mins -4

So Weegar gets 2 waiver guys as a d partner and plays big mins with Backlund which more than likley is when he faced elite talent and they play much better together than Rasmus and Bahl did with Backlund. Bahl is a much better dman than the waiver guys?

So much for a useless stat

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Why is it always assumed that low shooting percent is all luck and nothing to do with the player? Why is low on ice save percent always on the goalie and not the defender?

I didn't compare Rasmus to Weegar...I used Bahl as Bahl was on the ice with Rasmus for 75% of Rasmus ES minutes. Can I assume that Bahl also played against elite players?

This actually disproves the accuracy of +/-, and shows how much luck is involved. Presumably regular D partners should have almost the same +/-. The goals for and against should be against the same pairing. But in this case they aren't, so why? Did Rasmus suddenly play worse whenever Bahl left the ice? Or maybe was Bahl always the first change and Rasmus got stuck at the end of shifts more often? Or maybe whenever there was a lineup change Rasmus got stuck with worse players than Bahl.

Anersson and Bahl had a corsi of 49.2% which ain't bad considering they were most often put up against the top lines. Bahl's Corsi was worse with every other partner except Weegar. Rasmus had better Corsi with Weegar too, but also Miromanov and Barrie.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This actually disproves the accuracy of +/-, and shows how much luck is involved. Presumably regular D partners should have almost the same +/-. The goals for and against should be against the same pairing. But in this case they aren't, so why? Did Rasmus suddenly play worse whenever Bahl left the ice? Or maybe was Bahl always the first change and Rasmus got stuck at the end of shifts more often? Or maybe whenever there was a lineup change Rasmus got stuck with worse players than Bahl.

Anersson and Bahl had a corsi of 49.2% which ain't bad considering they were most often put up against the top lines. Bahl's Corsi was worse with every other partner except Weegar. Rasmus had better Corsi with Weegar too, but also Miromanov and Barrie.

I think people have shown coupled with all the other stats the -38 wasn't a fluke. If he was -15 you could call it a fluke or not representative of his play, but he is with players right at the bottom of the league and those players are on lottery teams.

49.2% isn't the worst but it is underwater. The high number of blocked shots not all 5v5 mind you, and the negative xGF show a player that was in his end defending a lot more and allowing a lot more. Yes, it is a 5-man unit, but D are usually responsible for the breakout and getting pucks up and helping sustain pressure on the other end.

It also 1 player with a considerably higher +/-

We all celebrated when Johnny, Matthew and Lindy set records in +/- but now its a useless stat.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I think people have shown coupled with all the other stats the -38 wasn't a fluke. If he was -15 you could call it a fluke or not representative of his play, but he is with players right at the bottom of the league and those players are on lottery teams.

49.2% isn't the worst but it is underwater. The high number of blocked shots not all 5v5 mind you, and the negative xGF show a player that was in his end defending a lot more and allowing a lot more. Yes, it is a 5-man unit, but D are usually responsible for the breakout and getting pucks up and helping sustain pressure on the other end.

It also 1 player with a considerably higher +/-

We all celebrated when Johnny, Matthew and Lindy set records in +/- but now its a useless stat.

I've never celebrated a plus minus stat. There's way too much noise in the data.

You explain - if Bahl and Andersson play 75% of the time together at ES why doesn't his +/- track that. He presumably is on the ice for the same goals for and against. The stat says he's not, so where is the discrepancy? It's not explainable by anything other than luck or Andersson playing the other 25% with partners that are much much worse.

This fascination with +/- seems to me to be an attempt to justify not liking the player.

The 49.2% is "not the worst" all right. In fact, while it's underwater, that's where the team was in differential. It's one of the better Corsis on the team among pairings. The only pluses are either super sheltered pairs or Weegar/Andersson.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This actually disproves the accuracy of +/-, and shows how much luck is involved. Presumably regular D partners should have almost the same +/-. The goals for and against should be against the same pairing. But in this case they aren't, so why? Did Rasmus suddenly play worse whenever Bahl left the ice? Or maybe was Bahl always the first change and Rasmus got stuck at the end of shifts more often? Or maybe whenever there was a lineup change Rasmus got stuck with worse players than Bahl.

Anersson and Bahl had a corsi of 49.2% which ain't bad considering they were most often put up against the top lines. Bahl's Corsi was worse with every other partner except Weegar. Rasmus had better Corsi with Weegar too, but also Miromanov and Barrie.

I prefer to look at scoring chances and high danger scoring chances than Corsi. I'm not saying +/- is the best stat, it's just not useless and no way Bahl is plus without Rasmus simply due to luck or always changing first. That will happen but it can happen both ways and Rasmus likely had it happen to him more as he is the guy that plays more.

Maybe Bahl played with Weegar quite a lot when away from Rasmus and against lessor competition with Kadri or Backlund on the ice. I would think that would be a good argument over who changed first.

All stats need more digging

[Toonage]

Not taking a side, but Ras was also caved in during Bahls' absence for his concussion FWIW

[YyjFlames]

I appreciate all the deserved love Weegar is getting in this thread. Guy has had two fantastic seasons with the Flames (and one good one), and still seems to be getting better.

His later bloom, high work ethic and two-way game has a lot of similarities to Gio--who put up his career best at 35. Although I think Parekh is going to quickly take over the number 1 power play, Weegar will likely continue to far outperform his contract value.

I was a bit wishy washy about trading Andersson away, but Weegar's leadership and continued high level play really does give the Flames some flexibility to not have to overpay Rasmus.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I prefer to look at scoring chances and high danger scoring chances than Corsi. I'm not saying +/- is the best stat, it's just not useless and no way Bahl is plus without Rasmus simply due to luck or always changing first. That will happen but it can happen both ways and Rasmus likely had it happen to him more as he is the guy that plays more.

Maybe Bahl played with Weegar quite a lot when away from Rasmus and against lessor competition with Kadri or Backlund on the ice. I would think that would be a good argument over who changed first.

All stats need more digging

I mean, look at the Vegas win. Bahl and Andersson played six seconds difference. Andersson is -1 and Bahl is 0. That to me smells like chance.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not taking a side, but Ras was also caved in during Bahls' absence for his concussion FWIW

I already showed that....

Rasmus played 78 mins with Weegar, they were -9

Rasmus played 38 mins with Weegar and Kadri, they were -8 (I assume some empty netters against)

Rasmus played 22 mins with Weegar and Backlund, they were -4

When you look at all these scenarios and look into the HDCF% or xGF%, they almost always say players played better away from Rasmus.

[Groot]

91.97% of fans polled want to trade Andersson next year.

Yet here we are debating about how bad he was or wasn't? Primarily because he called out a small subsection of fans, a comment many, many Flames fans agreed with?

Driven by one of the very clear and obvious 10%'ers, and another poster that doesn't post on the main boards unless he's showering praise on the Oilers.

[InternationalVillager]

Rasmus Andersson was the reason the Flames missed the playoffs.

Say it louder for the people in the back. Say it louder for the media.

No one is discussing this. The media isn't. Why would they? They're soft. Write soft pieces. Are buddies with the players because they just want to be in with the crew.

He was a sinkhole/drag on the entire team during the time on ice that he had. FACTS/STATS prove this.

YET - he made statements disparaging 10% of the fanbase because he doesn't share the same views.

People on this board take that as acknowledgement/validation that their views on "not tanking" are more valid than the "10%" that want to tank. This 10% figure is just a made up number. I'm sure the figure is much higher.

Regardless- it's got nothing to do with the message. He had no right to say anything about any fan at all after the abysmal season he had.

Weegar could. Huberdeau could. Backlund could. Kadri could. Coleman could. Wolf could.

Saying inflammatory/honest comments after putting up a career worst season just shows you lack self-awareness. Fans still pay their salaries. Fans are still the customer. No matter their views. ALL fans.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I mean, look at the Vegas win. Bahl and Andersson played six seconds difference. Andersson is -1 and Bahl is 0. That to me smells like chance.

Some luck, sure. All luck is just a terrible claim to be making.

Rasmus had a terrible year and played a sheltered role in the past behind Tanev and got top PP mins with Tkachuk and Gaudreau when he was at his best.

I said last summer we should trade Rasmus now as I was concerned his value would drop with less PP time and more responsibility in the d zone. I was right and luck wasn't why

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Groot

91.97% of fans polled want to trade Andersson next year.

Yet here we are debating about how bad he was or wasn't? Primarily because he called out a small subsection of fans, a comment many, many Flames fans agreed with?

Driven by one of the very clear and obvious 10%'ers, and another poster that doesn't post on the main boards unless he's showering praise on the Oilers.

And the thread started out with a pretty fun dialog that is now turned into a cesspool of weak +/- data trying to hold up the opinions of the people who are obviously hurt by Andersson's words. We went from discussing potential trade partners and possible returns to raging and trolling about meaningless stats with no objective aside from slamming on a guy. They aren't even saying things like "he sucks so I would be happy to get a 5th round pick for him".

I guess it sucks to have one of your heroes directly call you out on your toxic attitude toward a sports team that you are supposed to love.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I guess it sucks to have one of your heroes directly call you out on your toxic attitude toward a sports team that you are supposed to love.

This is the problem with society in general these days.

He didn't call you out though right? Because you self-identify as the "right" type of fan. So you feel all warm and fuzzy inside that he validated you and called out the "wrong" type of fans who you disagree with.

There should be no right or wrong type of fans is the ####ing point. We're all fans. A player calling out fans for OPINIONS is offside considering they pay his salary but is extremely offside after you performed terribly at your job.

If you worked at a manufacturing company and had a piss poor performance review.... do you really have any standing calling out your (lets say 10%) customers for their complaints about your organization?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Rasmus Andersson was the reason the Flames missed the playoffs.

BS. The St. Louis Blues' franchise-record winning streak was the reason the Flames missed the playoffs.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

If you had a manufacturing client and had a piss poor performance review.... do you really have any standing calling out your (lets say 10%) customers for their complaints about your organization?

If those customers, for some crazy reason, actually wanted you to deliver a crappy product, and complained because what you delivered was too good, damn right you have standing to call them out.

The 10% of fans Andersson is complaining about are those who actively wanted the team to lose. They ought to be happy with his performance and mad at the rest of the team.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If those customers, for some crazy reason, actually wanted you to deliver a crappy product, and complained because what you delivered was too good, damn right you have standing to call them out.

The 10% of fans Andersson is complaining about are those who actively wanted the team to lose. They ought to be happy with his performance and mad at the rest of the team.

Fans have every right- 10% or whatever the % (I know its much more) to feel whatever they want about their franchise. They are the paying customer.

One fan isn't more right or wrong than another fan for having an OPINION.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I'm always puzzled when someone has such a massive axe to grind with a specific player. Whether or not he had a bad season, this is a player who has been a good Flame. I can't stand how some fans treat players on their way out.

Except Mike Smith. F that guy.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Fans have every right- 10% or whatever the % (I know its much more) to feel whatever they want about their franchise. They are the paying customer.

Having the right is not the same as being right.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Rasmus Andersson was the reason the Flames missed the playoffs.

Say it louder for the people in the back. Say it louder for the media.

No one is discussing this. The media isn't. Why would they? They're soft. Write soft pieces. Are buddies with the players because they just want to be in with the crew.

He was a sinkhole/drag on the entire team during the time on ice that he had. FACTS/STATS prove this.

YET - he made statements disparaging 10% of the fanbase because he doesn't share the same views.

People on this board take that as acknowledgement/validation that their views on "not tanking" are more valid than the "10%" that want to tank. This 10% figure is just a made up number. I'm sure the figure is much higher.

Regardless- it's got nothing to do with the message. He had no right to say anything about any fan at all after the abysmal season he had.

Weegar could. Huberdeau could. Backlund could. Kadri could. Coleman could. Wolf could.

Saying inflammatory/honest comments after putting up a career worst season just shows you lack self-awareness. Fans still pay their salaries. Fans are still the customer. No matter their views. ALL fans.

STL’s Monty hire for the HC job is what got the Flames. Not just one player. Unless you’re relying on Andersson to be scoring a goal a game it is not all on him. Come on now.