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Old 05-15-2015, 11:34 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by The Fonz View Post
Don't draft a dropper.

You're stock is falling as a 17 year old? Can anyone list players that have worked out after dropping this significantly in their draft years?

I realize Forsberg was a projected 5-ish pick, and dropped to 11th. But that's not on the same level as this Kylington fall we're witnessing. Same with Fowler, but even then... only dropped from 5-ish to 12. Kylington falling out of the 1st round on legitmate rankings? I'd stay away.
Getzlaf was supposed to be a top 5 pick before falling to the Ducks at 17 and he turned out alright. There are plenty of examples of guys that fell that just had a bad year in their draft year and others that peaked at at 17 heading into their draft year.

It's too hard to tell which it is exactly without having more knowledge about the player and what they are going through. They might have had a nagging injury like a certain #63 that caused him to fall in our lap and is perfectly fine. Or they might just suck like Angelo Esposito.

Kylington is falling, but is that because his offensive output didn't increase this year? He did have the highest offensive totals in Sweden since Erik Karlsson draft year last year, and repeated it this year (played most of this year in the men's league, something that Karlsson didn't do in his draft year).

Karlsson had 10 points in 45 SHL games in the year following being drafted. Kylington had 6 in 32, which is about 8.5 over the same GP, but in his draft year.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Kylington > Karlsson, but it doesn't make a ton of sense why he's falling unless he's a complete disaster in his own zone and has not improved at all (I haven't watched much of his play recently).
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Old 05-15-2015, 11:53 PM   #262
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Kylington I feel is going to buck the scouting report lists and gt picked much higher than is being reported.

He was dealing with a nagging lower back injury, prety sure that was what kept him out of the WJC.
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Old 05-16-2015, 12:09 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by dammage79 View Post
Kylington I feel is going to buck the scouting report lists and gt picked much higher than is being reported.

He was dealing with a nagging lower back injury, prety sure that was what kept him out of the WJC.
That would explain a lot. We saw how much Hudler's play went sideways in the playoffs.
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Old 05-16-2015, 01:40 AM   #264
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This mock has Kylington falling to us at 15.


http://thehockeywriters.com/2015-nhl...-four-edition/




EDIT:
Most mocks out there have kylington available at 15
I thought Rantanen was the top Ranked euro skater?
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Old 05-16-2015, 08:15 AM   #265
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Historically 2 second rounders gets you into the late 1st almost every year

2003 Lightning traded #25 to Panthers for #34, #41, and #192
2003 Stars traded #28 to Ducks for #36 and #54
2005 Avalanche traded #27 to Caps for #47 and #52
2006 Wings traded #29 to Coyotes for #41 and #47
2007 Caps traded #28 to Sharks for #41 and #57
2008 Ducks traded #28 to Coyotes for #35 and #39
2009 Wings traded #29 to Lightning for #32 and #75
2010 Hawks traded #30 to Islanders for #35 and #58
2011 Wings traded #24 to Senators for #35 and #48
2014 Lightning traded #28 to Islanders for #35 and #57

It might be a little tougher for Treliving because his 2nd rounders are mid and late round, but it isn't a longshot at all.
Believe you have to look at the teams motivation to trade down. Teams without a second rounder might be more inclined to drop down a few spots if they get another pick in the top 60.

Taking the above examples, here's where the teams 24 and up sit.

24. Toronto. This is their second first obtained from Nashville. They could use the pick or move down and pick up two seconds as they currently don't have one. Might be tempting for them to move down to get another pick as they are restocking.

25. Winnipeg. Second first rounder obtained from the Blues. Chevy isn't conservative GM who is a draft and develop guy. They have a good stock of prospects so can see them picking the bpa. They have their second so less motivation.

26. Montreal. They don't have their second as they traded it in the Petry deal. Might be inclined to trade down two recoup that second rounder and have two picks in the top 60.

27-30 order tba but here are teams holding the picks

Arizona. Have Chicago's first rounder. Have two second rounders already so motivation to stockpile additional picks is in question. Are rebuilding but can see Maloney keeping the pick or even trading up.

Philadelphia. Have TB first round pick and have their second rounder. In rebuild mode so could see them moving down but just as easily keeping the pick given they will have three picks in the top 40. Poor prospect cupboard so can't rule out hextall looking to add.

Anaheim. Have no second round pick and Bob Murray is not adverse to trading down. Have good prospect base and good young roster players so might be happy picking bpa. But can't rule out him looking to recoup a second rounder.

TB. Have NYR first rounder but traded their pick to Philly. Also have Bostons second rounder in Connolly deal. TB also has good young stable of prospects and young roster players. No real motivation for Stevie Y to trade down as a result so can see him standing pat.

So a few options to get a late first but we may have competition. Columbus has three seconds like us and Arizona Buffalo Edmonton New Jersey and Ottawa all have 2 second rounders and could use these to get another first. With exception of Ottawa, all these teams can offer a higher second round pick than we can which could be attractive to the teams with a late first as it's less of a drop down.
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Old 05-16-2015, 12:52 PM   #266
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Another thing on Kylington, did his stock drop because he signed a 2 year deal in May in Sweden? He is only 17 right now so he'd make his first NHL camp when the turns 19.
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Old 05-16-2015, 01:21 PM   #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fonz View Post
Don't draft a dropper.

You're stock is falling as a 17 year old? Can anyone list players that have worked out after dropping this significantly in their draft years?

I realize Forsberg was a projected 5-ish pick, and dropped to 11th. But that's not on the same level as this Kylington fall we're witnessing. Same with Fowler, but even then... only dropped from 5-ish to 12. Kylington falling out of the 1st round on legitmate rankings? I'd stay away.
A few off the top of my head : Getzlaf, Hudler and Kopitar (fell far below where they were projeted to be)
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Old 05-16-2015, 01:29 PM   #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dammage79 View Post
Another thing on Kylington, did his stock drop because he signed a 2 year deal in May in Sweden? He is only 17 right now so he'd make his first NHL camp when the turns 19.
Shouldn't matter, NHL has a transfer agreement with Sweden, which allows them to sign players that have contracts in Sweden.
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Old 05-16-2015, 01:29 PM   #269
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Backlund fell from a top ten pick into the twenties.
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Old 05-17-2015, 03:31 AM   #270
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I agree as well to an extent. But I also think there are othe ways to get bigger than the draft. Not only that but there arent any gaudreaus projected to go in round one as far as I know size wise asides from Mr.Bracco. Konecny is not 5'8 150. Nor is Merkley. Also these kids at 5'10 170-180 can grow. I once heard men continue growing untill they are 23 or something like that. Paul George in the nba was drafted at 6'8 and grew 2 inches in one off season. Also I dont think eventually being 5'10 and 190 means you are just undersized and cant play rough and mix it up with teams like anaheim. Some of the best forechecking forwards and hitters in this league are sub 200lbs and under 6 feet tall. Again...I agree we need to get bigger. But I dont think we should see the draft as the only avenue to do that and overlook average sized players like Konecny in order to get bigger on draft day. The Oilers did that with Draisaitl and I think Bennett is a much better prospect and he actually plays bigger and more physical imo than leon. Size doesnt tell the whole story. Nick Merkley isnt EVEN COMPARABLE to gaudreau... Look up his hit vs Saskatoon. The guys 5'10 190 and plays very hard and mean. probably plays a lot bigger than mason raymond or david jones most nights. The only way Merkley is simillar to Gaudeau is the fact he's a playmaker with incredible vision and tons of assists.

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Old 05-17-2015, 05:25 AM   #271
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A lot of the examples people are giving involve a player being drafted after they were projected to eg Kopitar. Not players draft position falling between start of draft year and end of draft year. That said, I haven't watched Kylington play and don't know if he would be a good pick at 15.
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:01 AM   #272
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Quote:
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Backlund fell from a top ten pick into the twenties.
And he has finally developed into a 2nd/3rd line center at age 26 so he dropped to the appropriate spot
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:23 AM   #273
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Just because a guy drops doesn't mean to avoid him at all costs. Kopitar, Backlund, Forsberg, Fowler, Saad, Getzlaf are all guys who dropped in the draft who turned out just fine. Depending on the talent on the board taking a faller is a good gamble IMO.
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:44 AM   #274
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Hypothetically speaking, how far could the Flames move up in this draft from 15th if they were to offer their two 3rd's & three 2nd's... 5th?
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:52 AM   #275
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I wrote an article for the Forecaster a few years ago comparing central scouting ratings with where guys were actually picked and it definitely stood out that players falling were the ones to avoid in the draft.

Clearly there are examples of it working out great, but as an average its a really bad sign in development and a player that should be avoided.

The Oilers when they ran their scouting team out of Mexico were the worst, taking Henrich, Riesen and others when they fell to them in the draft.

Teams like Jersey that take players too early seem to beat the odds more often because they trust their scouting staffs.

Calgary took a faller in Fata, but also went early on Derek Morris.
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:53 AM   #276
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Quote:
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Hypothetically speaking, how far could the Flames move up in this draft from 15th if they were to offer their two 3rd's & three 2nd's... 5th?
5th according to this:
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...lue-trading-up
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:54 AM   #277
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I like the more lottery pick idea and would prefer just drafting 6 guys in the first rounds, especially with the recent success of the team's scouting staff. Take a look back at the last four drafts and imagine double the picks in the first three rounds? Take it!

The only pick that I'd like to see moved is the Baertschi pick because it would avoid the Baertschi vs player X comparisons forever. If it's packaged with another pick its less obvious.

Don't want to see them move that pick for an established player at any cost. Too direct. Would be annoying.
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Old 05-17-2015, 11:33 AM   #278
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Quote:
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I wrote an article for the Forecaster a few years ago comparing central scouting ratings with where guys were actually picked and it definitely stood out that players falling were the ones to avoid in the draft.

Clearly there are examples of it working out great, but as an average its a really bad sign in development and a player that should be avoided.

The Oilers when they ran their scouting team out of Mexico were the worst, taking Henrich, Riesen and others when they fell to them in the draft.

Teams like Jersey that take players too early seem to beat the odds more often because they trust their scouting staffs.

Calgary took a faller in Fata, but also went early on Derek Morris.
Agree -- guys who have been falling in the rankings all year, like Kylington, should be avoided. It's not the same as a guy that falls a few spots on draft day, because that's just a factor of individual teams' lists not working out for that guy (like Seth Jones, or Cam Fowler).

When scouts are scrutinizing a guy all year and continually being more and more disappointed in him, that's a real red flag.
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Old 05-17-2015, 11:37 AM   #279
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I too would favor selecting 6 picks rather than trading up unless there is a surefire NHLer that Flames have the book on and the cost is modest (late 1st for 2 2nds). Our draft prowess has been superb of late.

There is top 6 talent left at 15 so unlikely we trade up in 1st round.

I go back to the article brought up in an earlier Brandon Hickey post:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/23...r-hockey-sense

Skill-Character-Hockey Sense are the 3 key attributes Flames scouting will focus on when drafting.

I would add work ethic given Hartley's "Always Earned Never Given" philosophy.

Consider our 1st round draft position: Merkley and Konechny seem to stand out as possible selections potentially available and of interest to Flames at 15. Both are also R shooting and could play RW on our 2nd line in time. BPA and a need.

Both compared to Kane much like Johnny Hockey. I would love a Johnny Hockey lite on our 2nd line and 2nd PP.

Both are loaded with skill, hockey IQ, work ethic and character (leadership skills).

Merkley quotes:
"A playmaking center that has an excellent eye for the game; sees the ice like a hawk from above. Creates scoring chances and on-ice energy through taking advantage of puck-possession and making the most of turnovers. Incredible work ethic; will battle against larger players and isn't afraid to do the dirty work in front of the net. Does not possess the largest frame or a dynamic level of skating; however, he does boast a remarkably high level of Hockey-IQ and a deep understanding of the game. There is something left to be desired having observed his individual skills, such as puckhandling, footspeed, and decision-making, for a prolonged period of time; there is definitely room for improvement in the small areas of his game. All-in-all, Merkley brings a medley of skill, smarts, and work ethic to the table, making him an invaluable asset as a Center." (Curtis Joe, EP 2014)

"I think he's just worked hard," Chartier, a San Jose Sharks prospect, said. "Every day he's one of the hardest workers on our team. He's really determined. He's a really skilled, high-end player. He's always looking to pass first. I always try to get open for him and that's why we play so well together. He's got an ability to hold onto the puck and find players and I just try to get open for him."

"He is your western version Max Domi – a compact guy (sounds better than squat guy) who can deliver bone jarring hits as well having the skill to skate past a defender, the vision to pass to where a player is going to be and the determination to keep on pushing to succeed no matter what the situation." Christopher Ralph THW

Konechny quotes:
“A talented scoring forward that can play either as a center or on the wing; plays with the bite and intensity of a guy who is willing to do anything to win a game. Possesses dynamic skating ability that allows him to accelerate rapidly with each step, incredible hockey sense, electrifying puckhandling skills, and a lightning release on his shot; when you put this skillset together with hard-nosed determination, proactiveness in all three zones, and a physical willingness to grind and persevere, you get a game-changer who can be extremely difficult to play against.”

–Curtis Joe, Elite Prospects


"It's his engine, it's incredible — the kid never stops," 67's coach Jeff Brown said. "He has no mirrors in his house. He has no idea how small he is because he competes so hard against everybody, doesn't matter the size. His shot, his character, obviously his leadership in the locker room, he's going to be a pro, it's that simple. He does the little things like a pro and trains like a pro."
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Old 05-17-2015, 11:55 AM   #280
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I'm really excited for this off-season. Potential for huge growth for current prosoects/players and for new ones picked up at the draft/free agency.

Hoping we keep all our picks and draft well. Possibly add a few picks with some veteran trades! 15 is a great spot to pick!
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