CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Everyone please read this post again.

Just to be clear with squiggs96, I'm not saying his assumption was right. Just that was his excuse for not revealing, which doesn't make sense to me.

[Timbo]

Time for bed yet I am going to consult my Ouija Board.
And Baxter Renegade if you believe that. Your position as a competent player is very weak IMO. Let facts speak for themselves, Rathji is posting different. If you cannot see that I completely question your position!
Diligent players should have spotted this. Rathji never denied this and validated my reason for suspicion.
If you accept his reason for doing so, that is another thing.



I believe he is a controller but not a good one.


This is logical evolution!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Delgar

No, you're not dumb. When you first posted the idea, I was like, MAFIA! Then I thought about it more and I could see how someone could go down that path of reasoning. A passive town is a dead town though, I think. The mafia will get it right every time in their kills, the town is going to hit the wrong target more than once in every game... to use that as a means for not shooting... is certain death over time.

At least now you are posting....

I mentioned in a previous post that I would have favored hammering Bizaro yesterday. If it turned out he was scum, that's a quick blow before the other mafia members could even blink. It would have been bold but risky because if we were wrong, we wouldn't have exposed any vote patterns and lost a day and a friend.

But since we didn't use the hammer (and even told the mafia we were slowing down the vote) we are in a bit of a stalemate now after all the inactives became active.

GGG: I see where you're coming from that the mafia probably likes to vote somewhere in the middle. However they know that too. If we dismiss too many things as "the mafia wouldn't do that" they'll start to do it.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If you are town and people vote for you, you should explain why they are wrong and not get so defensive to accuse them as mafia. Going with the "anyone who votes for me is mafia" strategy is not a good strategy if you are town.

To be clear, with the exception of that last paragraph this is pretty much all moot if he reveals town.

I didn't say anyone who votes for me is mafia. I stated my reasons why those three individuals struck me as mafia, including what looks to me like delgar and dissentower working together. There was nothing defensive or aggressive from chu in that case. Just because you voted for me now doesn't mean I consider you mafia. Obviously my first few posts couldn't have gone much worse for me. I've tried making up for it in the last little while by trying to spark discussion, pika. I wish I was mafia, as I think I'd have a better idea how to play.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Again, I'm going back to the bizarro pile-on as that occurance has the most information so far (at least in my opinion).

GP Matt had 3rd vote, Baxter had 5th. I looked through the thread since the vote and they still both have the vote on bizarro, but have not really contributed to the thread much since their vote.

Matt's reason for keeping the vote is we need to avoid a no lynch situation. Considering we still have more than 48 hours to get to a deadline lynch, I think we are fine. I'd like more of an explaination for keeping the vote on bizarro.

Baxter's said nothing about their vote. Again, a little more discussion on why would be helpful.

In my eyes, we are a long way from not getting a deadline lynch, so the more discussion the better. I feel the above two characters has said the least about their strategy and reasonings so far - and that makes me suspicious.

I honestly don't have a good reason to keep my vote on Bizaro.
Yet, I don't have a good reason to vote for anyone else yet. There is so much noise on the first day that any theory is almost guaranteed to be wrong. Therefore the first days vote is, in my opinion, random. I thought it would be ballsy for the mafia to try to lead the day one voting so I figure voting for someone who was brought up early is as close to random as I am going to get. Pure random is bad because it doesn't give us anything to go on tomorrow while a pile on lynch can give us a pattern to go with.

[Baxter Renegade]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Time for bed yet I am going to consult my Ouija Board.
And Baxter Renegade if you believe that. Your position as a competent player is very weak IMO. Let facts speak for themselves, Rathji is posting different. If you cannot see that I completely question your position!
Diligent players should have spotted this. Rathji never denied this and validated my reason for suspicion.

I was familiar with Rathji and his posting last game and asked him a number of times to check his notes (cause he kept notes) on various suspicions I had. Im just speculating on potential hiccups and messups that other players can read and form their own conclusions on. No one should be assumed evil at this point, and no one should be assumed good. My thoughts on Rathji are anything but clear... The dual posts could simply be coincidence stemming from a couple of keen players, or they could be subtle evidence of affiliation. Again, I put it out there for others to read, speculate on, form conclusions, and re-read later in the game once more patterns begin to develop.

All's we can do is mine for clues and hope something sticks.

[Timbo]

Last post before bed. Baxter are you saying you knew his previous posts really well yet accepted his reason for change? Or just jumped on me even though you knew this change on behavior was obvious to you yet you were not willing to acknowledge it publicly and yet cast doubt on two who came to obvious conclusion?

Sounds scummy to me.

[starseed]

I'm on mobile. Do we know why rather dashing is seemingly staying in the background?

[devo22]

Originally Posted by starseed

I'm on mobile. Do we know why rather dashing is seemingly staying in the background?

quickly checked. He mentioned he'd be busy this week:

Originally Posted by RatherDashing

Just to let everybody know, I will be attending a yoga retreat in the desert this week and may not be able to post as often as I would like. Please don't take this as hostility, I will be trying to achieve tranquility! I'm going to hold off on voting for anybody yet as I don't have a random enough reason to vote for anybody, and I don't want to vote out squiggs before he gets a chance to post a bit.

Namaste.

[devo22]

alright, now I'm finally done reading the ~65 posts that were made after I went to bed yesterday. Being 8 hours ahead can make you miss quite a bit of action, but at last I had something to do on the bus ride home from work

just wanted to comment on this:

Originally Posted by formulate

Last game, the 8 mafia members were split into 2 rather distinct posting 'types', at least in my mind. There was the highly active and aggressive CaptainCrunch, undercoverbrother, starseed, and bizaro. And then there were the less active DropIt, Completely, CofR and (to a lesser extent) devo.

I began looking closer to see if I could find any correlation between activity level and alignment. I gave up quickly partially because it looks like there was nothing, and also because I saw something more interesting in regards to style.

The 4 less active posters (again, devo to a lesser extent) all had a fairly similar style of posts: pretty empty. What I read were lots of statements of fact, agreements with other ideas, and excuses for not posting more or more in depth. They basically did the bare minimum to not get noticed as the bottom end of the post count.

don't forget that there were two sets of mafia groups. It was Captain Crunch, DropIt, Completely and me as one group, and there was undercoverbrother, starseed, bizaro and CofR as the other one. So you can't really throw all mafia members of that game into one group because obviously every group had their own thoughts and tactics. I can only speak for our group of course and we were scattered across the crowd: there was a very vocal one who blended in perfectly as a leading scum-hunter (CC), I was more in the middle of the pack and the other two lurked in the shadows for a long time before getting more vocal. We didn't even plan on doing this, it just naturally happened that we ended up in different "posting groups", if you want.

I doubt any mafia members will risk getting to the bottom of the post count because those users are always called out, and that's what you want to avoid if you want to stay in the shadows. However, I think calling out the inactive ones and pressuring them into posting more is good nevertheless because inactive town members don't help us at all.

Looking at "suspicious" users so far, it's almost a coin flip for me. Rathjis different posting style is something that has caught my eye as well after re-reading some of his posts, but there's no proof that it's not RL-related. Timbo and formulate coming out with the same thing within a couple of minutes looks a bit fishy, but at the same time, this would be really bad mafia play if they were working together. I remember that in the last game, we as a mafia group tried hard not to form obvious alliances and it would be really dumb for them to do something like that. GGG and squiggs are somewhat shady in my opinion too, I'll have some re-reading to do after I'm done grading my students' homework.

In any case, I will cast a vote later today. hmmhmmcamo's idea of not lynching anybody was rightly called out, I think that would be the worst strategy. We need to get the ball rolling at some point.

I was going to post for inactivity (Stazzy and Rather Dashing) Yes Rather posted he was going to be away but it's one thing to use flavour and say he's on a yoga retreat or is he just using that as a cover? But Stazzy on the other hand hasn't said anything...
But then Baxter said he was leaning toward non-voters. which in my mind wouldn't be helpful to the town? Maybe I can be swayed on that point. But then he said this:

Originally Posted by Baxter Renegade

All's we can do is mine for clues and hope something sticks.

It was just an odd thing to say. Like it was code or something. I think I'm going paranoid.

But I just get this gut feeling about GGG. He's been an aggressive poster and that kind of bothers me.

I've been up since 5am again, so my mind is fuzzy. Going to have a coffee and re-read some of these posts. I'm thinking I need to make notes to keep track of all this. I'm sure us turtles have brains the size of a pea.

[mrkajz44]

I agree with others who are saying Rathji's posting style and frequency compared to last game is quite different (I didn't play, but read most of both threads). However, they did mention in the sign up thread that they were somewhat embarrassed by how the first day went down in Mafia 2 (which is a great read by the way!). Therefore, I see the different posting style an attempt to avoid the disaster of day 1 in the last iteration. As such, I don't think the change in posting style suggests they are mafia.

Thanks Matt for posting you reasoning for your vote. I'll be honest, my vote is starting to be along the same lines now. There is suddenly so much noise in the game, it's really hard to put a great reason on why anyone is voting for anyone.

I will stick to my guns for now and see how a few other votes fall, including their reasoning (as long as the non-voters start to vote as requested earlier). I still think the bizarro pile-on for no real reason was odd and can't shake that it didn't happen with squiggs. I still think that means Mafia panicked a bit when squiggs was on the radar and then jumped too quickly on the bizarro bandwagon to try and avoid a mafia lynch the first day.

That being said, others are getting more suspicious, but nothing more that the bizarro pile-on, at least for me.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by GGG

1) name reveal. There is no connection, what part of random number generator don't people understand. I think Mazrim wrote that it was easy to fit flavour in afterwards. You just take an attribute of the character and shoehorn in the role. Read Mazrims first post it makes this pretty clear.

Anyone trying to guess abilities based on attributes needs to stop now. It's not there yet people seem to keep suggesting it. This is going to be very bad for the town if it continues.

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Alignment and roles of all players was determined by random.org, ie. I gave each player a number, and ran it through the RNG to assign roles.

Alignment and roles were determined randomly, not abilities.

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Character name or abilities (if they have any) are NOT indicative of role in all cases.

Not in all cases, which means they are in some.

Originally Posted by GGG

4) I never know how to take the revenge type vote although yours doesn't really fall in the category as you do present some logic although flawed along with it

It's not a revenge vote, you just voted for someone I know is townie. If you read what I said it doesn't really matter that you voted for me, as I said we really have no idea at this point.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by GGG

Did I actually post that, the quote you quoted doesn't link to me posting that line.

I think you mixed up what I was saying, I was talking to Timbo there, agreeing with his assessment that it is sometimes valid to use posting style as a way to help you weed out scum

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

As I said in the OP, your character is not necessarily indicative of role or alignment, so there should be no fear over revealing your character.

Rathji,

Read this post by Mazrim posted directly before I revealed who I was. The only people right now who can draw fake connections with their roles are the mafia because they know more than one.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Baxter Renegade

I was familiar with Rathji and his posting last game and asked him a number of times to check his notes (cause he kept notes) on various suspicions I had. Im just speculating on potential hiccups and messups that other players can read and form their own conclusions on. No one should be assumed evil at this point, and no one should be assumed good. My thoughts on Rathji are anything but clear... The dual posts could simply be coincidence stemming from a couple of keen players, or they could be subtle evidence of affiliation. Again, I put it out there for others to read, speculate on, form conclusions, and re-read later in the game once more patterns begin to develop.

All's we can do is mine for clues and hope something sticks.

I won't be taking notes this time, which likely will mean my reduced effectiveness, to be honest.

As for the double posts, I am not looking into it too much at this time (but might later if one flips scum). They were right that my posting style changed, but they just hadnt considered that my posting style had changed CP wide, not just in this game.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I think you mixed up what I was saying, I was talking to Timbo there, agreeing with his assessment that it is sometimes valid to use posting style as a way to help you weed out scum

Look at the quote though, you quoted me, but using Timbo's post so it looks like I said it not Timbo. Not a big deal for this post but I was confused by it.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by devo22

don't forget that there were two sets of mafia groups. It was Captain Crunch, DropIt, Completely and me as one group, and there was undercoverbrother, starseed, bizaro and CofR as the other one. So you can't really throw all mafia members of that game into one group because obviously every group had their own thoughts and tactics. I can only speak for our group of course and we were scattered across the crowd: there was a very vocal one who blended in perfectly as a leading scum-hunter (CC), I was more in the middle of the pack and the other two lurked in the shadows for a long time before getting more vocal. We didn't even plan on doing this, it just naturally happened that we ended up in different "posting groups", if you want.

Yes I completely agree in regards to the two factions having separate group dynamics or strategy. My theory is more about the individual strategy. At the end of the day, each member is trying to blend in with the town, and I believe (or hope, at least) that more 'passive' strategy is easier to pick out.

[GGG]

Everyone needs to vote by noon today on someone for us to stay on schedule for Wednesday night.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Rathji

They were right that my posting style changed, but they just hadnt considered that my posting style had changed CP wide, not just in this game.

It's not only that your posting style has changed, it's also that your current style matches historical mafia in some ways, and seems like an easy way to keep your post count up without sticking your neck out.

Worst case of lynching you would be losing a townie who doesn't have time/isn't fully contributing at his best. My apologies if it truly is a result of your personal life.