[Trade] Tkachuk (8 yrs x $9.5 mil) + `25 4th to FLA for Huberdeau, Weegar, Schwindt & `25 1st

[Electricprez]

Originally Posted by JackIsBack

How do we, and more importantly, how did they measure this pre-operative "performance" in this study.... because Monahan's performance slide well before his operation... and I think we'd be happy if he returns to his performance in the 2018-2019 season.... but if he returns to his 2020 (or after) performance levels, well, then that's not worth 6.7 million or even close to it.

First: I don't think it'd be a return to four-years-ago form, though obviously I am neither a doctor nor a crystal-ball-holding fortune teller (surprise!)

The methodology is all on the study page if you want to delve into it.

The short version:
They selected matched 'control' players to compare to, one per surgical case based on position, years of experience, performance data prior to surgery.

They considered goals, assists, penalty minutes and shots on goal divided by the games played.

For the full answer:
"Due to the possible benefits or detriments of aging and/or experience on player performance and number of games played, matched control players were selected to use for comparison with post-surgery performance in the surgical treated players. A control was selected for every surgical case. Controls were matched to study cases based on position, age (±1 year), years of experience (±1 year) and performance data prior to the surgery date. Each control was given an index date which matched the case player’s surgery date to compare post-operative or post-index performance. For example, if a player had surgery 3 years into his career, the control’s index date was 3 years into his career.

Performance statistics were collected from http://www.hockey-reference.com for each player identified before and after FAI surgery. Statistics were collected for regular season NHL games only with pre-season and playoff games excluded. There were no players for whom performance data could not be identified. Player statistics for cases pre-operative and post-operative and controls pre-index and post-index were collected and aggregated. The performance score was calculated using the number of goals, assists, penalty minutes and shots on goal divided by the games played to account for discrepancies in the number of games played per season for offensive and defensive positions. The performance score for goalies was calculated using the number of wins, losses, ties, shutouts and goals against divided by games played. Performance was compared as described previously [27].

A Kaplan–Meier survivorship curve with ‘retirement’ as the endpoint was constructed post-operatively for cases and post-index for controls. The continuous variables of each cohort were compared using a two-tailed paired samples Student’s t-test for normally distributed data. Chi-square (χ2) was used to analyse categorical data. A Bonferroni correction was used to control for multiple (n = 7) comparisons with statistical significance defined by a P-value ≤ 0.007."

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by JackIsBack

How do we, and more importantly, how did they measure this pre-operative "performance" in this study.... because Monahan's performance slide well before his operation... and I think we'd be happy if he returns to his performance in the 2018-2019 season.... but if he returns to his 2020 (or after) performance levels, well, then that's not worth 6.7 million or even close to it.

Of course the slide started well before his surgery. He had the injury well before. And he had the other hip as well.

But yes, we all realize that even an improvement might not be $6.7M worth. But so what? The contract is signed, it exists. So any improvement gives you something back on it. Just like Lucic isn’t worth his salary but still everyone appreciates the contribution anyway.

[FanIn80]

Let's not forget the best part of this trade...

To Calgary: Huberdeau, Weegar, Schwindt, 2025 1st
To Florida: Tkachuk, 2025 4th
To Vancouver: Olli Juolevi

[timbit]

Originally Posted by fanin80

let's not forget the best part of this trade...

To calgary: Huberdeau, weegar, schwindt, 2025 1st
to florida: Tkachuk, 2025 4th
to vancouver: Olli juolevi
to edmonton: Pull your wagon

fyp

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Stampede2TheCup

Been patient with Monahan? That’s sure not what I’ve seen overall.

Playing him as a 4th liner, and a poor one at that, simply because it is all that he can handle is not being patient? Even the year before when it was apparent he was toast he continued to get fed minutes with the top players on the Flames roster.

I couldn't care less about treating him with Kid gloves when his salary could be used for a real center that makes an impact where the team needs him - in the top 6.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Playing him as a 4th liner, and a poor one at that, simply because it is all that he can handle is not being patient? Even the year before when it was apparent he was toast he continued to get fed minutes with the top players on the Flames roster.

I couldn't care less about treating him with Kid gloves when his salary could be used for a real center that makes an impact where the team needs him - in the top 6.

You could certainly be more compassionate about it.

Guy was a productive, team first player for the first 6 years of his career, earning his first three years of this contract easily.

Then he breaks down due to hip issues, not due to lack of trying or lack of caring.

Nobody is trying to get anyone to admit that he's earning his pay day, but the overall consensus is to cut the guy some slack as a good warrior for this team and not dump all over him for something out of his control.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Let's not forget the best part of this trade...

To Calgary: Huberdeau, Weegar, Schwindt, 2025 1st
To Florida: Tkachuk, 2025 4th
To Vancouver: Olli Juolevi

Vancouver trades the 5th pick in the 2016 draft to Florida for forward Juho Lammikko and defenseman Noah Juulsen. (October 2021)

Calgary trades the 6th pick in the 2016 draft to Florida for forward Jonathan Huberdeau, defenseman Mackenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt, and a 1st round pick (July 2022)

[Electricprez]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You could certainly be more compassionate about it.
Then he breaks down due to hip issues, not due to lack of trying or lack of caring.

He is absolutely a warrior; his health issues began before his hips, too and are often overlooked:

Here's a breakdown (summary below)

• 2016 - Wrist surgery
  
• 2017 - 2x herniated discs, groin operation, left wrist: "At the time Monahan noted the wrist as the key one for him, “I felt like I was playing with one hand for a while. I lost all my grip strength in my hand. It definitely limits you.”
  
• 2018 - Cracked thumb (no surgery), wrists still causing issues to the point he needs daily injections just to play (per the coach, and Monahan later confirmed in interviews)
  
• 2020 - Hip surgery (left side) was likely injured quite early in season to the point he struggled to walk (remember that 'months of symptoms' bit from earlier and how it impacted recovery time/rates?), Sean played through it
  
• 2021 - Hip surgery (right side), played much of the season with it

If the guy isn't putting up the same numbers he used to, it's not for lack of effort or cashing in on his contract. He's had a serious number of (reported) injuries.
It makes all the sense in the world why he was playing 4th line.

[FlamesAddiction]

There are so many different ways to evaluate this trade. I think the Flames did good in the short term, but there is enough risk there that I don't think it's a grand slam at this point. Too early for victory laps anyway IMO. If both Weegar and Huberdeau are one-and-done, then it will prove to be a bad deal IMO. If they re-sign or get flipped for assets, that changes.

From Florida's perspective, I think they made out great no matter what happens. They got a 24 year old superstar with a unique talent set who was an automatic to re-sign for 8 years. You can argue that the 8 year extension was worth nothing to the Flames, but it certainly was for Florida. They gave up two pending UFAs, and given the cap, they would have been in deep to try and re-sign both of them. One of them would have certainly been out the door after this season, or another important player on the team. From a preemptive asset management perspective, I think they made a great move no matter what happens.

If Huberdeau and Weegar leave after 1 season, and the Flames don't win anything, I think a lot of people are going to look at the rumoured Carolina package in a better light. It would have been the safer deal.

The major caveat of course is how all the players actually do on their new teams, which we obviously need to wait and see.

[Roof-Daddy]

I hadn't thought about this yet, but I'd like to know what Tkachuk thought of the trade after he found out what Florida gave up to get him.

He wouldn't have known Huberdeau was leaving the Panthers as he was negotiating his 8 year deal through Treliving. Part of him probably thought he was going to have a pretty good chance at being line mates with the other 115 point winger in the league.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

There are so many different ways to evaluate this trade. I think the Flames did good in the short term, but there is enough risk there that I don't think it's a grand slam at this point. Too early for victory laps anyway IMO. If both Weegar and Huberdeau are one-and-done, then it will prove to be a bad deal IMO. If they re-sign or get flipped for assets, that changes.

From Florida's perspective, I think they made out great no matter what happens. They got a 24 year old superstar with a unique talent set who was an automatic to re-sign for 8 years. You can argue that the 8 year extension was worth nothing to the Flames, but it certainly was for Florida. They gave up two pending UFAs, and given the cap, they would have been in deep to try and re-sign both of them. One of them would have certainly been out the door after this season, or another important player on the team. From a preemptive asset management perspective, I think they made a great move no matter what happens.

If Huberdeau and Weegar leave after 1 season, and the Flames don't win anything, I think a lot of people are going to look at the rumoured Carolina package in a better light. It would have been the safer deal.

The major caveat of course is how all the players actually do on their new teams, which we obviously need to wait and see.

The biggest head scratcher for me for Florida is where they are in their window.

They've shopped out three straight first round picks, prospects to be all in now.

They acquired a 24 year old star player that had 104 points last year.

If they're good this year they're going to look to add at the deadline but won't have the picks to do it.

So they move their own rentals now when they're on sweetheart deals? Why not move other lesser assets with sweeteners and keep both players? Especially Weegar as his exit makes their blueline pretty tepid.

Just don't get why they didn't cash in on their own good fortune to have two upper roster players on expiring sweetheart deals when they're supposed to be all in on winning now.

Head scratching.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You could certainly be more compassionate about it.

Guy was a productive, team first player for the first 6 years of his career, earning his first three years of this contract easily.

Then he breaks down due to hip issues, not due to lack of trying or lack of caring.

Nobody is trying to get anyone to admit that he's earning his pay day, but the overall consensus is to cut the guy some slack as a good warrior for this team and not dump all over him for something out of his control.

I get what you’re saying. But it pro sports. What have you done for us lately.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I get what you’re saying. But it pro sports. What have you done for us lately.

It's an individual choice for sure.

But don't be surprised when others push back on how callous and unsympathetic it looks.

Lots of people have Monahan jerseys in their collection in this city. The guy cares, and has always cared so I'd say a strong majority are willing to cut the guy more slack than some of you.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

What are you talking about? My point wasn’t about Darryl was inexperienced at coaching 100 point players at all. It was just one of the several examples I was using to illustrate what Huberdeau has going up against him this coming season. It wasn’t some shot at Darryl, I like Darryl. But it’s no secret he likes sound defensive hockey which I believe contributed to it taking 28 years between his 100 point scorers.Pretty much the main point I was trying to make was that I’m expecting Huberdeau’s offensive production to regress which isn’t even an unreasonable.

It took 28 years because Darryl never had any 100 point capable players on the Kings. Kopitar is an excellent hockey player but is not a 100 point player under any coach. He's only topped 80 points twice in 16 seasons. 100 point seasons are EXTREMELY rare.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by activeStick

It took 28 years because Darryl never had any 100 point capable players on the Kings. Kopitar is an excellent hockey player but is not a 100 point player under any coach. He's only topped 80 points twice in 16 seasons. 100 point seasons are EXTREMELY rare.

There’s only been 117 guys to get 100 points in NHL history. For one coach to have 3 ain’t bad.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The biggest head scratcher for me for Florida is where they are in their window.

They've shopped out three straight first round picks, prospects to be all in now.

They acquired a 24 year old star player that had 104 points last year.

If they're good this year they're going to look to add at the deadline but won't have the picks to do it.

So they move their own rentals now when they're on sweetheart deals? Why not move other lesser assets with sweeteners and keep both players? Especially Weegar as his exit makes their blueline pretty tepid.

Just don't get why they didn't cash in on their own good fortune to have two upper roster players on expiring sweetheart deals when they're supposed to be all in on winning now.

Head scratching.

Why not? Cant they just keep going down the road and trading away 1sts? Is there some sort of limit?

"And for Florida's 2047 1st round pick they acquire...."

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Locke

Why not? Cant they just keep going down the road and trading away 1sts? Is there some sort of limit?

"And for Florida's 2047 1st round pick they acquire...."

I’ve been wondering about that for a while. How far into the future can you trade draft picks?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I’ve been wondering about that for a while. How far into the future can you trade draft picks?

I thought it was 5 years, but I have no idea if that is true. I remember somebody posting it before, but hard to find an actual source to verify that.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I’ve been wondering about that for a while. How far into the future can you trade draft picks?

I hope its unlimited. Just to witness the chaos.

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I hadn't thought about this yet, but I'd like to know what Tkachuk thought of the trade after he found out what Florida gave up to get him.

He wouldn't have known Huberdeau was leaving the Panthers as he was negotiating his 8 year deal through Treliving. Part of him probably thought he was going to have a pretty good chance at being line mates with the other 115 point winger in the league.

Does anyone really think Tkachuk is going to push them over the top Vs. Tampa with Weegar and Huberdeau gone? I don't

I get locking up 24 year old but this was their shot and now they will just be pretty good longer but not as good ever. Its like if the Avs made a major move after losing in the 2nd round with an unreal team. Playoffs are crazy, the line is so fine. Panthers will be good, highly doubt they are anywhere near last seasons point totals.

That division is no joke