Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[The Fonz]

Way too many to list, I don't have the time.

If someone else wants to, can look at every draft by year on hockeydb.com

I'd be curious to see the forwards too

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

If we win the lottery, trade down to 2nd or 3rd. Or just take the guy we want/need in Nathan MacKinnon with the 1st overall pick.

I will have an aneurism if we take a d-man with our pick.

Here's a list of all d-men drafted in the top 10 from 2001-2010:

Gudbranson - Prospect
McIlrath - Prospect
Hedman - Top pair
Ekman-Larsson - Top pair
Cowen - Top 4
Doughty - Top pair
Bogosian - Top 4
Pietrangelo - Top pair
Schenn - Top 4
Hickey - 3rd pair
Alzer - Top 4
Ellerby - depth
E. Johnson - Top 4
J. Johnson - Top 4
Lee - depth / Bust
Barker - depth / Bust
Smid - Top 4
Valabik - Bust
Suter - Top pair
Coburn - Top 4
Phaneuf - Top 4
Bouwmeester - Top 4
Pitkanen - Top 4
Whitney - Was top 4 once, now declining
Komisarek - Was top 4 once, now declining

So what... 6 home runs there? Out of 25? 24%

We don't need an NHL player with our 1st rounder this year, we need an elite superstar. We need a new face for this franchise with the absence of Iginla.

Not that Im saying we should take a dman but if we can land one of 17 guys that are top 4 or top pair thats not a bad thing at all. Nearly 70% success rate. With other 8% still being a prospect and 8% who used to be top 4. Thats failure rate of 15%. Not bad, how many home run dman really are there in the NHL?

I dont want a dman with out pick but wouldn't discard it either.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

If we win the lottery, trade down to 2nd or 3rd. Or just take the guy we want/need in Nathan MacKinnon with the 1st overall pick.

I will have an aneurism if we take a d-man with our pick.

Here's a list of all d-men drafted in the top 10 from 2001-2010:

Gudbranson
McIlrath
Hedman
Ekman-Larsson
Cowen
Doughty
Bogosian
Pietrangelo
Schenn
Hickey
Alzer
Ellerby
E. Johnson
J. Johnson
Lee
Barker
Smid
Valabik
Suter
Coburn
Phaneuf
Bouwmeester
Pitkanen
Whitney
Komisarek

So what... 6 home runs there? Out of 25? 24%

We don't need an NHL player with our 1st rounder this year, we need an elite superstar. We need a new face for this franchise with the absence of Iginla.

How many of those D were ranked a clear #1 in one of, arguably, the best top end drafts in the last 3 decades?

Franchise D are more difficult to acquire than any other position.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Do the forwards and I suspect the 24% range in the same.

Hall
Seguin
Johansen
Connolly
Skinner
Burmistrov
Granlund
Tavares
Duchene
Kane
B. Schenn
Kadri
Glennie
Paajarvi
Stamkos
Filatov
Wilson
Boedker
Bailey
Hodgson
Kane
Van Riemsdyk
Turris
Voracek
Hamill
Couture
Staal
Toews
Backstrom
Kessel
Brassard
Okposo
Mueller
Frolik
Crosby
Ryan
Pouliot
Brule
Skille
Setoguchi
Ovechkin
Malkin
Ladd
Wheeler
Olesz
Pickard
Staal
Horton
Zherdev
Vanek
Michalek
Nash
Upshall
Lupul
Bouchard
Nystrom
Kovalchuk
Spezza
Svitov
Weiss
Chistov
Koivu


27/61 = 44%

Some may agree with my choices, some may not

[kirant]

Here's a list, of picks 5-10, years 2001 to 2010 of forwards drafted. I've bolded what I think are "home run" picks

Spoiler!

Chistov
Koivu
Ruutu
Upshall
Lupul
Bouchard
Taticek
Nystrom
Vanek
A. Kostitsyn
Wheeler
Olesz
Picard
Brule
Skille
Setoguchi
Kessel
Brassard
Okposo
Mueller
Sheppard
Frolik
Gagner
Voracek
Hamill
Couture
Filatov
Wilson
Boedker
Bailey
Hodgson
Schenn
Kadri
Glennie
Paajarvi
Niederreiter
Connolly
Skinner
Burmistrov
Granlund

That's about 20% chance of a "home run" in my book (8/40).

Using only 5-10 drafted D, I get 3/13 home run D (I removed Bourdon from calculations).

That's pretty statistically insignificant in my books (23% vs 20%)

Here's the list of D (and home runs in bold)

Spoiler!

Komisarek
Whitney
Suter
Coburn
Phaneuf
Smid
Valabik
Lee
Bourdon (removed)
Alzner
Ellerby
Schenn
Ekman-Larsson
McIlrath

[sun]

I usually lean heavily to picking forwards over D in the first round. Jones looks like the exception to the rule though. I guess my concern is if we pick him after winning the lottery that he'll eventually bail and head to the USA as a UFA.

[azzarish]

Originally Posted by Gary83

I'd normally tend to agree with you, but looking at his team's total production is kind of interesting, he's 27 points up on the second leading scorer.

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/s...n/46/ls_team/5

The second highest player's point totals also include his other teams points. He's played for 2 teams this year.

[bucksmasher]

seems like moving up a spot in the draft still leaves a bewildering amount of choice

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by sun

I usually lean heavily to picking forwards over D in the first round. Jones looks like the exception to the rule though. I guess my concern is if we pick him after winning the lottery that he'll eventually bail and head to the USA as a UFA.

Is there any actual precedent for people saying this? I know to some extent that the 'UFAs don't want to sign in Alberta' is true but what is this being based off of?

[azzarish]

If we lose in regulation tonight our odds of winning the draft lottery go up from 4.7% to 6.2%, as we can finish no lower than 6th last.

[StrykerSteve]

TSNBobMcKenzie “@OHLHockey: Max Domi scores 20 seconds into OT to give the @GoLondonKnights the Western Conference championship.”/5 point night for Domi.

Impressive performance in a big game.

[JurassicTunga12]

6.2% chance to get the #1 pick now

[expatflame]

So 7th pick or better...most likely 6th.

[Roof-Daddy]

Flames can pick:

1st - if they win lottery
2nd - CAN'T Happen
3rd - CAN'T Happen
4th - if Canes get a point, and Preds beat Columbus
5th - if only one of the above happen
6th - if neither of the above happen
7th - if neither of the above happen, and somebody from 7th-14th wins the lottery
8th - CAN'T Happen

[albertGQ]

Now watch, the Oilers will win the lottery with our balls

[nickerjones]

but we can get to top 4 pre lotto with a Carolina point and a Nashville win?

[StrykerSteve]

Yup

[FBI]

So how much better would the 5th pick be over the 6th?

[expatflame]

Originally Posted by FBI

So how much better would the 5th pick be over the 6th?

Monahan vs Lindholm?

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Flames can pick:

1st - if they win lottery(or a trade)
2nd - CAN'T Happen(unless a trade)
3rd - CAN'T Happen(unless a trade)
4th - if Canes get a point, and Preds beat Columbus
5th - if only one of the above happen
6th - if neither of the above happen
7th - if neither of the above happen, and somebody from 7th-14th wins the lottery

Fixed