2011 Canadian Election Thread

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just wanted to say that this poll (along with others that have come out recently), and the ridiculous press conference this morning for Harper has to be somewhat infuriating to the CPC faithful? I don't even mean from a policy/partisan standpoint either. I just mean from the perspective that the majority had to have been within their grasp early on in the campaign, but a terrible strategy in terms of the actual campaign is going to see that disappear, and even worse reduce their number of seats.

I know its easy to look at the Liberals and say what a disaster for them (and it ain't pretty!), but this sure doesn't look like its time for the CPC to gloat either. What a train wreck.

The other thing that seems to be showing as more likely is Elizabeth May winning her seat against Lunn.

I really don't know what they could have done from a campaigning persepctive. When you're the incumbent government, a re-election campaign is really an organized plane crash. In a vacuum of none of the other parties making mistakes, all you can do is shore up your vote and hope you don't lose too many supporters.

They induced Ignatieff into making huge mistakes, but the methods of tarring and feathering him pissed people off enough to seek alternative places to park their vote. Really the CPC are capped at 40%, and they need to manipulate ways to get all of that 40% and in the right places to win a majority. A daunting task non the less.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just wanted to say that this poll (along with others that have come out recently), and the ridiculous press conference this morning for Harper has to be somewhat infuriating to the CPC faithful? I don't even mean from a policy/partisan standpoint either. I just mean from the perspective that the majority had to have been within their grasp early on in the campaign, but a terrible strategy in terms of the actual campaign is going to see that disappear, and even worse reduce their number of seats.

I know its easy to look at the Liberals and say what a disaster for them (and it ain't pretty!), but this sure doesn't look like its time for the CPC to gloat either. What a train wreck.

The other thing that seems to be showing as more likely is Elizabeth May winning her seat against Lunn.

Disagree...I believe a majority is still very possible.

The surge in NDP poularity isnt going to affect the amount of seats much at all, and more to the point, the ones that switch to the dippers will come mainly at the expense of the Liberals and the Bloc.

If i was to guess today....I see the CPC getting 148 seats with about 5 more leaning their way....2 more elsewhere and it is in majority territory.

There is NO way the NDP will gain many more than about 10 from where things were at disolution....and therefore no chance as sitting as the minority government.

As for the May/Lunn battle...the latest poll I saw had Lunn with a comfortable 7 point lead....though that was some time ago.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

Please name one, with evidence to back up your claim.

Less than a year after taking office, Harper tried to repeal Canada's legalization of gay marriage, but the motion was defeated by all NDP and Bloc MPs and most Liberals voting against it (about a dozen Conservatives broke party ranks and also opposed the motion). If Harper had his desired majority, it would almost certainly have passed.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

^ Well, it's easy to be accurate when you only call safe ridings.

This is amusing:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/p...o-to-hell?bn=1

I think the pressure of embarrassing himself is getting to Ignatieff.

And people say Harper is an angry guy.

Ignatieff didn't help himself with what equates him to a 12 year old kid who didn't get to second base with his girlfriend.

[WilsonFourTwo]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

People can't honestly be ignorant/un-informed enough to actually vote for the NDP can they?

You don't have to be ignorant in order to vote NDP, you just need to see things differently than a Liberal or a Conservative. I get incredibly pissed when someone suggests I'm ignorant for voting Conservative. Painting people that way is incredibly disrespectful. I think you ought to tone it down a touch.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I think you're definately right in assuming credit cards will not be as common. Any bill legislating maximum interest rates is surely going to have some laws around other fees to circumvent workarounds though.

Yeah, but you can't force banks to lend money to people. The thing about governments and the economy is that a government cannot mandate the economy to improve, but rather only attempt to create winning conditions for improvement. The opposite is that they can certainly mandate the economy into ruins with restrictive laws.

If the NDP were to implement this, and then legislate charge out rates with businesses, and then legislate that they cannot drop credit limits of existing customers, then the banks will simply stop taking on new clients and all of the bad things I mentioned would still happen. You can't force people into economic activity, but you can certainly provide incentive for people to shy away from it.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Less than a year after taking office, Harper tried to repeal Canada's legalization of gay marriage, but the motion was defeated by all NDP and Bloc MPs and most Liberals voting against it (about a dozen Conservatives broke party ranks and also opposed the motion). If Harper had his desired majority, it would almost certainly have passed.

Probably not. Harper promised an open vote (i.e.: his members didn't break party ranks, they were allowed to vote their conscience), and that bill was the followup to the campaign promise. Once it was done, it became a dead issue.

That bill was Harper following up on a promise to his far-right wing of the party, likely knowing it never had a chance in hell of passing.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Okay, please answer this question for me:

Why would the Liberals keep the NDP in check? First, their platforms are virtually identical, so it's not like they are this great fiscally conservative babysitter. Second, their party will be extremely weak and they won't be able to enter another election until they have sorted our some serious issues within their party. That being said, they will have no choice but to support NDP bills as defeating them would mean going to election that they aren't even remotely ready for.

Do you think the NDP is going to want to rush back to an election the only time they'll hold power ever and the highest number of seats they'll ever hold? Definitely not. I believe they will work with any other party they form a government with if that happens and any legislation put forward will be collaborative.

Also, the liberals are historically very much in line with the Cons fiscally, despite election promises this cycle to win votes IMO. In fact, this past government with Harper was way more fiscally liberal than any Chretien or Martin government as part of their response to the recession.

I think in Alberta, politics is emotional and Liberal and NDP are like curse words which prevents a lot of people from objectively looking at the Conservatives - they are the exact same as the liberals at the best of times with different social policies. There's a million dollar piece of sod with 3 trees getting put in at the end of my block right now under the "Economic Action Plan" umbrella that I look at every day and laugh about.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Actually it's pretty clear what would happen as a result of this policy.

1) If I were a credit card company I would immediately drop the credit limit of anyone with a balance and medium to low credit to exactly that balance and lower it with every reduction of principal that person makes. Futhermore I wouldn't issue new cards to new accounts without pristine credit history, because credit card debt is unsecured. This isn't really being predatory, it's really protecting your own behind because the only thing that allows the credit card company to give money away that people take decades to pay back without collateral is insanly high interest payments.So basically this removes a credit card from a lot of people's wallets.

.

Half the people who have credit cards probably shouldn't have them anyway. Credit companies love issuing cards to people who are poor enough that they get stuck in "minumum payment" purgatory. If credit card companies stop issuing to people with shotty credit ratings, they will be hurting themselves the most as those are also the people who end up paying the most interest over the long haul. People like me who typically pay their credit card debt quickly, aren't really their number one target.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Less than a year after taking office, Harper tried to repeal Canada's legalization of gay marriage, but the motion was defeated by all NDP and Bloc MPs and most Liberals voting against it (about a dozen Conservatives broke party ranks and also opposed the motion). If Harper had his desired majority, it would almost certainly have passed.

That was 5 years ago and was part of Harpers campaign. He promised he would hold a fee vote for those elected and see if they wanted to reconsider Bill C-38.

They were never going to challenge the law of it at all.

There was a motion to see if those in parliament wanted to re-visit it, they didn't and that was the end of it.

No one is going to tackle that issue on the federal level ever again...its political suicide.

So that is a horrible example of what THIS government is going to do on social issues.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Really the CPC are capped at 40%, and they need to manipulate ways to get all of that 40% and in the right places to win a majority. A daunting task non the less.

Good post. Just want to add that our local CPC candidate has pretty much gone into hiding. He should still win the riding, but people are pissed. I'm hearing from lots of people that they are contemplating spoiling their ballets, a protest vote for the NDP or simply staying home.

If this is any indication of how things are being handled in other ridings, the CPC might be losing some seats here.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Half the people who have credit cards probably shouldn't have them anyway. Credit companies love issuing cards to people who are poor enough that they get stuck in "minumum payment" purgatory. If credit card companies stop issuing to people with shotty credit ratings, they will be hurting themselves the most as those are also the people who end up paying the most interest over the long haul. People like me who typically pay their credit card debt quickly, aren't really their number one target.

Those people are the ones that default most often too. The risk will go way up for the lenders, and the reward way down.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Less than a year after taking office, Harper tried to repeal Canada's legalization of gay marriage, but the motion was defeated by all NDP and Bloc MPs and most Liberals voting against it (about a dozen Conservatives broke party ranks and also opposed the motion). If Harper had his desired majority, it would almost certainly have passed.

It was an open vote. Harper made no secret that if elected, he would put the issue up to an open vote as that is what his constituents wanted. He did that and now it's a closed issue. I don't see anything wrong with that at all. In fact, you might call this, I don't know... the democratic process?

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I think in Alberta, politics is emotional and Liberal and NDP are like curse words which prevents a lot of people from objectively looking at the Conservatives - they are the exact same as the liberals at the best of times with different social policies. There's a million dollar piece of sod with 3 trees getting put in at the end of my block right now under the "Economic Action Plan" umbrella that I look at every day and laugh about.

Except I live in Ontario, so all this closed minded Albertan BS doesn't apply.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Sound economic managers?

Is this the same MB and SK that were 'have not' provinces?

Is this the same MB and SK that had people leave year after year because there was no opportunity for anyone?

SK finally has a leader and party that want to expand business.. and look at that they are a 'have' province and people want to live there.

but yeah... the NDP was good for the province.

And MB is going to get a Conservative leader in October because the NDP has royally screwed over this province from top to bottom.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by peter12

Actually the NDP are the only federal party that maintain direct organizational and membership ties to their provincial counterparts. So in some sense, the absolute failure of NDP governments at the provincial level is a reasonably good insight into how they would function at the federal level.

So I can look forward to the NDP providing their cronies with lush government jobs in numerous crown corporations throughout the country like they have in Manitoba?

I can't wait.

[WilsonFourTwo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

There is NO way the NDP will gain many more than about 10 from where things were at disolution....and therefore no chance as sitting as the minority government.

I too believe that the NDP is gaining at the expense of the Libs and Bloc - this has to be a good news story for the Cons. Still, I'm going to be really really really surprised if the Conservatives break 150 seats.

I'm also certain that we'll be looking at a sizable NDP party, perhaps even as high as 60 or (doubtful) 70 seats. Depending how the rest shakes about, they may very possibly be the Opposition.

Even if the all of these "NDP supporters" do actually vote NDP, I doubt it would be enough to even reach 100 seats...just too much vote splitting going on. Even with an epic last minute collapse, the Conservatives will be well beyond 100, killing any notion of an NDP government.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by jammies

The NDP isn't taking over, but the main problem I have with the very idea is that they don't even have experience as the Opposition, never mind as the gov't. An NDP-Liberal coalition (which is the only even remotely tenable scenario) with the NDP having the lion's share of cabinet would be a giddy disaster.

As far as them gutting the oil industry, I doubt their rhetoric would match their actions. They might inhibit the oil patch far more than it would like, but they aren't going to kill it as they need someone to pay for all their programs.

China is going to pay for all our programs, as we'll be running up a massive deficit every single year that the NDP has a say-so.

Vote for leadership you can trust is a bunch of crap. I trust the Liberals a hell of a lot more than I trust Layton and his big-spending sack of stupidity.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

Good post. Just want to add that our local CPC candidate has pretty much gone into hiding. He should still win the riding, but people are pissed. I'm hearing from lots of people that they are contemplating spoiling their ballets, a protest vote for the NDP or simply staying home.

If this is any indication of how things are being handled in other ridings, the CPC might be losing some seats here.

Virtually every riding in Alberta was won by the Conservatives with greater than 50% of the votes last time around. There would have to be an unprecedented backlash for them to lose any seats outside of Edmonton, and more than 2 in Edmonton. The CPC will win between 26 and 28 seats in Alberta. The margins might be a lot closer than in the past, but they'll still be landslides.

The Conservatives in my riding have done nothing to earn my vote, but neither have the other parties, so, at this time, I'll likely cast a blank ballot on Monday.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Except I live in Ontario, so all this closed minded Albertan BS doesn't apply.

Apologies - didn't mean it as a personal shot at your views. I dunno if you've lived in Alberta (probably being a flames fan) but I was more commenting on the climate out there. The Conservatives for better or worse get a free pass while the other parties are evil and I think the actual difference between blue tories and the liberals is non-existent fiscally.