CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[Oling_Roachinen]

One thing that bothers me a bit is how puxlut wanted us to decide what the doctor and cop should do. It's just not in the towns interest to reveal or pressure the cop/doctor into making a certain decision because the mafia will just use it to their advantage.

It might just be first time playing, but I don't know.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Drury18

MOT #1 - Says he has a strong hunch Timbo is scum. Confirmation bias was how he built his entire theory that Timbo is scum.

Thanks for the recap!

I should clarify this comment - I meant that I had a strong hunch Timbo was mafia. As the day went on and I saw people I had suspicions about defend him, my confirmation bias went into overtime and I thought I had figured out 5 mafia. When the Timbo flip never happened, there was no way to know if my theory was correct.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Sorry I'm confused, you were trying to get the mafia not NOT night kill you by saying you had a good night ability? Wouldn't saying you have a good night ability make you a target rather than saving you?

No, the opposite. I wanted to be a better mafia target.

Originally Posted by Drury18

You said in the portal your case about him being mafia was based on a confirmation bias. Would love to hear more about this.

Cause you know...I just jump in front of bullets and reveal pretty major powers because I woke up one morning, saw an opening in my day timer to do something and figured "What the hell, let's just do this thing".

You were probably duped. Again, I could be wrong, but I think this could have cost us the game.

Do people think there is any point in hiding MOT2? We are thinking that the block could mean the mafia have determined who MOT2 is. Or should we wait one more night?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

One thing that bothers me a bit is how puxlut wanted us to decide what the doctor and cop should do. It's just not in the towns interest to reveal or pressure the cop/doctor into making a certain decision because the mafia will just use it to their advantage.

It might just be first time playing, but I don't know.

It is indeed a bad play, but probably a first time mistake.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Rathji

My win conditions have not changed, but that has me thinking, if the guardians prevail (get a certain number of members, perhaps?), does the 'originator' of the invites of that group win?

Would totally make sense why I was recruited right by the guardians right away with the power I was given, as I had indicated that I pretty much didnt take it because I missed the deadline due to external conditions.

One thought, if the Eternal recruiter and Guardian recruiter have separate win conditions, is there an existing mechanic in the mafia games which supports this type of situation? If there is, then I think we should assume that it is very likely given the message from the previous night. This also would explain why starseed or partner has the ability to determine what faction killed a player. I was initially confused by this as we didnt really have any clear indication of a second mafia faction, but this might explain that.

One more thing, as I explained previous, I have a similar (but not as useful) power to the dayvig kill. This means that I am a likely target for kill overnight. I suspect that the fact that the Dr was alive and revealed was likely the only thing that kept me alive last night. I think I need to use this power today or I will die tonight. I welcome suggestions from all on this topic.

This is what some of us have been saying and been worried about. While your win conditions haven't changed there could be a leader of each cult that has a different win condition (a game within the game). They are tempting people to join with powers, and the people joining could unknowingly be contributing to the leaders win. Didn't you say your power could not be used on other Guardians? If the leader is trying to recruit people to 'win' then of course they don't want the members killing eachother.

[Oling_Roachinen]

You had 8 votes and other people saying they were okay with the hammer.

So why didn't you reveal that wood was town? Sure we already suspected but if you are town and your flipped proved it we could be 99% certain wood is town.

And we would have the first indication that a cult power worked as intended. So far ECF's poison didn't work and GGG's investigation didn't work on person he targeted. Having you confirm that the powers work as intended prior to a lynch would have been vital. Holding back that type of information doesn't make sense.

[Wood]

Who do you suspect are the 5?

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by starseed

You were probably duped. Again, I could be wrong, but I think this could have cost us the game.

Do people think there is any point in hiding MOT2? We are thinking that the block could mean the mafia have determined who MOT2 is. Or should we wait one more night?

Why are you so threatened by my asking questions and bringing things up?

This is twice I've asked a direct question or pointed out a pattern with you and twice you've wanted to switch to a reveal.

Why can't you just answer a damn question? What makes you think Timbo is scum? How have I been duped?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

You had 8 votes and other people saying they were okay with the hammer.

So why didn't you reveal that wood was town? Sure we already suspected but if you are town and your flipped proved it we could be 99% certain wood is town.

And we would have the first indication that a cult power worked as intended. So far ECF's poison didn't work and GGG's investigation didn't work on person he targeted. Having you confirm that the powers work as intended prior to a lynch would have been vital. Holding back that type of information doesn't make sense.

I disagree. There was no threat to Wood, and it was pretty obvious that he was a townie. The better play was to hold onto that card.

ECF had their power not work, GGG proved that the guardian power did work, even if redirected. I don't see how yesterday's revealing of the wood investigation would have helped anyone. Holding onto it provided the better long term play.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Wood

Who do you suspect are the 5?

I would assume Timbo and I are on there.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Wood

Who do you suspect are the 5?

It was:

Timbo
Oling
HG
Formulate
Dissent

[Oling_Roachinen]

If starseed would have been honest so close to a lynch and said his cult power worked as intended and wood was investigated as town once/if he was lynched we would know that rathji's power would work as he wanted assuming starseed revealed town.

Instead he lies about his power to make it seem like it would be better later in the game. Self-preservation instead of giving town vital information?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Drury18

Why are you so threatened by my asking questions and bringing things up?

This is twice I've asked a direct question or pointed out a pattern with you and twice you've wanted to switch to a reveal.

Why can't you just answer a damn question? What makes you think Timbo is scum? How have I been duped?

If Timbo was mafia, then we would have had a major break. You bought his defence, and blocked the kill. Now we lost that night, and the town's best move will now likely be to lynch me to prove MOT2 is town.

Timbo's pressure behaviour was clearly scummy. He spilled a lot of words into his posts without providing much at all that could be useful upon his flip. He also made his posts seem like they were written up, submitted to the mafia thread, then later posted onto the main thread. Which is why it was outdated by hours and made no sense.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

I disagree. There was no threat to Wood, and it was pretty obvious that he was a townie. The better play was to hold onto that card.

ECF had their power not work, GGG proved that the guardian power did work, even if redirected. I don't see how yesterday's revealing of the wood investigation would have helped anyone. Holding onto it provided the better long term play.

Your 1 vote away from being lynched. There was multiple people in favour of the hammer. You should have posted something to the effect of "my cult power worked as intended" then if you showed town we would know it was true. This was vital information that the town needed and still does.

Now we got to be worried about Rathji's kill going to a random townie.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If starseed would have been honest so close to a lynch and said his cult power worked as intended and wood was investigated as town once/if he was lynched we would know that rathji's power would work as he wanted assuming starseed revealed town.

Instead he lies about his power to make it seem like it would be better later in the game. Self-preservation instead of giving town vital information?

It was not in the interest of self-preservation at all. The information was hardly vital. On balance, it was the right call.

However, it is all moot now with the slip. I don't see a way to win at this point, unless the mafia choose the same target a couple times, or role blocks work. Nevertheless, my lynch is probably the best play right now. It could at least confirm my theories were not generated by scum, and it would bring a lot of clarity.

But if Timbo is town, then we saved one of our own. And when it gets down to final days, don't we need those numbers?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

It was not in the interest of self-preservation at all. The information was hardly vital. On balance, it was the right call.

However, it is all moot now with the slip. I don't see a way to win at this point, unless the mafia choose the same target a couple times, or role blocks work. Nevertheless, my lynch is probably the best play right now. It could at least confirm my theories were not generated by scum, and it would bring a lot of clarity.

How is not knowing that the cult powers work as intended not vital information?!? That's my second biggest question right now, first being who is the mafia.

With 1 vote away from hammer, and assuming for a second you are town and the mafia could have easily shut you up with a hammer (that other people were okay with) you should have revealed that information to us.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

But if Timbo is town, then we saved one of our own. And when it gets down to final days, don't we need those numbers?

Having the mafia do all the killing will not lead us to a win. We cant be certain we are lynching a mafia, but at least flips will provide valuable support to future votes. Flips that only the mafia choose are not guaranteed to be of any help, and could be used to throw people off track.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Now we got to be worried about Rathji's kill going to a random townie.

Unless he's mafia. And then if he kills a town, he says "oops! I guess it was tainted" and then laughs all the way to the bank. And we don't think anything of it.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by starseed

If Timbo was mafia, then we would have had a major break. You bought his defence, and blocked the kill.

Yea, me and the other 7 that didn't vote for him. I didn't toss myself in front of someone who everyone pretty much believed was scum.

In fact, some of those who went to Timbo used to be on you. You were tied and votes moved because it was dragging on to the deadline, frankly that reeks of scum to me.