The Flames at 22% (+10%) to make playoffs.
The Flames median finish is 92 points, 4 points out of playoffs assuming Blues hold tie-breaker.
The Flames most likely to pick 16th overall (-1), now behind the Canucks.
The Flames projected to finish 10 points out of the top 10.
Comfortable like an old sweater.
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expected points per game = point percent / average opposition point percent x (total points in west conference to date / total team games played in western conference to date)
*second half of the formula in theory adjusts for 3 point games.
Ends up looking like this for what is probably the median expected outcome at this point in time.
EDM 101 - 12pts in 9 games
MIN 97 - 9 points in 7 games
STL 95 - 8 points in 7 games
CGY 93 - 11 points in 9 games
VAN 90 - 9 points in 8 games
Not insurmountable, but an uphill battle. Assuming the Flame win tonight and the Wild/Blues lose their next game, Thursday morning the expected outcome for the 3 teams could be a virtual tie 95/94/94.
Also worth noting games vs sub 500 teams,
Min 2
Stl 2
Cgy 4
Last edited by #-3; 04-01-2025 at 01:50 PM.
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expected points per game = point percent / average opposition point percent x (total points in west conference to date / total team games played in western conference to date)
*second half of the formula in theory adjusts for 3 point games.
Ends up looking like this for what is probably the median expected outcome at this point in time.
EDM 101 - 12pts in 9 games
MIN 97 - 9 points in 7 games
STL 95 - 8 points in 7 games
CGY 93 - 11 points in 9 games
VAN 90 - 9 points in 8 games
Not insurmountable, but an uphill battle. Assuming the Flame win tonight and the Wild/Blues lose their next game, Thursday morning the expected outcome for the 3 teams could be a virtual tie 95/94/94.
Also worth noting games vs sub 500 teams,
Min 2
Stl 2
Cgy 4
I do something similar but account for home pt% vs road % of each team and average points awarded per game.
I project
Minnesota 96
St.Louis 95
Calgary 92
Vancouver 90
Minnesota's remaining schedule is pretty easy as their remainjng opponents average weighted point percentage is .509 and their adjusted win is .596. St.Louis opponents are .558 vs adjusted win of .580 and Calgary is .523 against their adjusted win of .566.
At this point of the season the Flames need one of the Blues or Wild to hit a 7 game stretch where they only get 2 points type of thing since the tie breakers currently favor the Blues and Wild.
__________________ "Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Last edited by Sylvanfan; 04-01-2025 at 04:50 PM.
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- The Flames are at 11% (-11%) to make playoffs.
- The Flames' median finish is 91 points, 5 points out of the playoffs assuming the Blues hold the tie-breaker.
- The Flames are most likely to pick 15th overall (+1), assuming the Canucks hold the tie-breaker of goal differential if it comes to that.
- The Flames are projected to finish 9 points out of the top 10.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
1. No playoffs
2. No top 10 pick
3. Give away the best of our three 1sts
4. Finish with more points than some eastern playoff teams
Flames fandom. Its not for the weak hearted.
It isn't totally bleak.
1. Found goalie of the future
2. 4 first round picks in the next two drafts
3. Defense prospect pool looks really good
4. tons of cap space looking at the future
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1. Found goalie of the future
2. 4 first round picks in the next two drafts
3. Defense prospect pool looks really good
4. tons of cap space looking at the future
If a Crossover existed the Flames would be playing the Caps or Florida lets say. No way the NHL agrees to that travel schedule for a first round. Let alone if the Flames kept winning rounds lol
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If a Crossover existed the Flames would be playing the Caps or Florida lets say. No way the NHL agrees to that travel schedule for a first round. Let alone if the Flames kept winning rounds lol
Simple solution, in the event of a east-vs-west series (other than the final), game 6 happens in the higher seed's city to cut down on travel.
It is defibrillator time. Need multiple losses in a row by the teams ahead to get a heart beat back. Although it won't matter if the Flames can't bring 2 points tonight. One day at a time.
must show all Flames games nationally when they play on Saturdays, Mondays, and Wednesdays !!!
