CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Assumption: Oling is a host, but not the Captain.

Night 0 - Passed to someone who gets turned. Hosts know all turned at all times.
Night 1 - Passed back to a host. Hosts now control the spore
Day 2 - Oling claims he was sent spore on Night 0 and passed it to Girly on Night 1. He claims he is not turned, but thinks Girly might be. We lynch Girly, so we can never find out if his claim is true or not. The only way we could have ever truly believed that Oling was telling the truth on this one, was if she lasted the day. If Oling was town, and did pass the spore to Girly there would be proof either way if Girly lived to Day 3. Oling was likely investigate by the Agent on Night 2. If he's a host or an unturned passenger nothing will show up. At first I thought the hosts might have passed the spore to themselves, but I think it's more likely they turned someone right off the bat, and Oling tried to get town credit for this. He did know that in order for his plan to work, Girly had to be lynched on Day 2. If she survived day two then she'd either be able to say on Day 3 who she passed the spore to on Night 2. She would then be investigate on Night 3 and if she was turned would be killed. If she was not turned, and alive on Day 4, this would be great news for the town.

Let's play a long with that Squiggs. I'm the only person to claim to have had the spore. If I am host:

Night 0 - Turned (No one else came forward)
Night 1 - Host. (Did host tell Turned to send it to host? How else would I know host got it?)
Night 2 - Turned (no one claimed)
Night 3 - Turned (no one claimed) (Maybe host again)
Night 4 - Turned (no one claimed)
Night 5 - Kill SebC? Why? To prolong the game? Scum already consists of like 6 or 7 and should already have instantly won.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I just don't see how an objective Hockeyguy15 can look at Timbo's post today and not get huge red flags all over the place. Maybe he still hasn't had time to go over them with his conversation of Dissentowner.

I don't know what Timbo is after reading the last few game days over.

At the start he was contributing to the discussion, but not really 'hunting'. Then he seems to get a bit riled up with the whole quicktopic thing, and then full blown off the deep end after you vote for him.

Why would a host get so pissed off after 1 vote? I'm not sure that would be something they would do, maybe some damage control but to go "full Timbo" doesn't seem like what they would do.

I'm thinking it's possible that Timbo was given the spore and maybe infected. I think there are better lynch targets right now than Timbo.

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 4 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (2): Hockeyguy15, starseed

Party Elephant (3): Puxlut, bizaro86, Peanut
Timbo (3): Oling_Roachinen, dissentowner, Party Elephant
mrkajz44 (2): Timbo, squiggs96
squiggs96 (2): mrkajz44, GGG



The deadline is Thursday, June 25th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Let's play a long with that Squiggs. I'm the only person to claim to have had the spore. If I am host:

Night 0 - Turned (No one else came forward)
Night 1 - Host. (Did host tell Turned to send it to host? How else would I know host got it?)
Night 2 - Turned (no one claimed)
Night 3 - Turned (no one claimed) (Maybe host again)
Night 4 - Turned (no one claimed)
Night 5 - Kill SebC? Why? To prolong the game? Scum already consists of like 6 or 7 and should already have instantly won.

Night 1 - The turned could have sent it to the host. I'm not sure how the communication between hosts and turned work, so it could have been directed or it could have been coincidence. Maybe they sent it directly to you. Whether it went to you (in this scenario as a host) or to either of the other two hosts, all hosts would know who had the spore, as they can communicate with each other.

Night 2 - It could have been sent to ECF. He was lynched on Day 3. If he dies with the spore it returns to the Captain on Day 4.

Night 3 - No spore transfer

Night 4 - Sent to Seb. He turns.

Night 5 - Captain or Agent kills Seb

I'm also trying to figure out a scenario where I was sent the spore on Night 5, and the push today is to kill me before I send it to someone tonight. This would involve the Agent killing Seb, not the Captain. The push to kill me would be to lynch a townie, and to regain control of the spore. There would have to have been discussions from the Captain to the spore holder on where to send it, or maybe it was as obvious as send it to whoever Seb votes for. I might not sure yet. It's probably more far fetched than the scenario one above, but I'll give it some thought. As of yet I haven't thought the mechanics of it through, but I wanted to jot it down before I forget.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Squiggs96, I don't believe you could come up with a reasonable scenario with a Night 0 - Turned that exists and the town still hasn't lost. I'm not sure if you just hadn't thought it through, or were hoping to just throw more suspicion my way.

You could believe that the spore was lost when East Coast Flame and Devo22 got lynched, but that would still leave you with the question of why I contributed or lead the charge against them if they had the spore. Otherwise, especially in a scenario where the scum are killing SebC, it doesn't make sense for there to be only 1 or 2 turned alive right now.

Night 0 - Turned --- Turned --- Turned
Night 1 - Host --- Host --- Host
Night 2 - Turned --- Turned --- Turned
Night 3 - Host --- Turned --- East Coast Flame
Night 4 - Turned --- Host --- No Spore
Night 5 - Instant win (6/12) --- Instant win (6/12) --- No reason to kill SebC, Host has control

This post may be riddled with holes as it's hard to go against what I know to be true (Night 0, me, Night 1, Girly, Night 2, no spore) but it's to show Squiggs96 that his scenario is impossible.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Night 0 - Turned --- Turned --- Turned
Night 1 - Host --- Host --- Host
Night 2 - Turned --- Turned --- Turned
Night 3 - Host --- Turned --- East Coast Flame
Night 4 - Turned --- Host --- No Spore
Night 5 - Instant win if turn (6/13), no reason to kill SebC --- Instant win if turn (6/13), no reason to kill SebC --- Host has control, no reason to kill SebC


There would actually be 13 people before SebC dies. It's a mess, the point is it's entirely wrong. Squiggs96, try to finish your line of reasoning and you'll come to the same conclusion.

[Oling_Roachinen]

My last 2 posts are a mess. Again, hard trying to come up with the logic when you know it's wrong.

You're right that it's a possibility Squiggs96, you're wrong that it happened.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I'm not sure if you just hadn't thought it through, or were hoping to just throw more suspicion my way.

I'm not trying to throw more suspicion your way. I'm trying to work through something. I feel I'm on the right track, and I'm grinding it out, hoping it will come to fruition. By posting it, I'm hoping someone else may see the light in what I'm trying to get at. So far that hasn't happened.

It's similar to how you keep going on about Seb on my list. You feel strongly something is there, so you keep going after it. The difference is that I know you're wrong on my intentions/reasons there. Unfortunately I don't know if I'm right or wrong on the spore yet.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If I had been given the spore on Night 3 and was turned, what benefit is there to me giving the spore to Seb on Night 4? There is a ton of heat on me, and many are advocating Seb be investigated. I think even I said it at one point that if Oling was already investigated to investigate Seb. That would be a terrible play on my part.

That's what I was saying. If you had the spore night 3 and were trying to keep the investigation away from you by steering it to known town, then why would you pass the spore to Seb.

[Hockeyguy15]

Has anyone come out and said they believe PE to be town?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

If the agent killed SebC then he should reveal his info because we are at lynch or lose. If the agent did not kill SebC then it's highly likely that Seb was day 3 and devo was day 4 therefore max 1 turned from day 5 right now. So given the lack of reveal so far I think there is a max of 1 turned right now and we should wait another day.

Also is this what everyone thinks is happening with the agent? I want to make sure I am not assuming the wrong thing before I vote.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Now I'm side tracked and back at the start of day 4.

Squiggs comes out and starts the spore talk. If he is a host I come back to why would he put the attention on the spore going to a confirmed town? I guess he could be trying to build some credibility with the town pending an agent investigation, but then why wouldn't he also include Seb?

What about if squiggs got the spore night 3 and was turned to start day 4? I guess he could be trying to get the agent to investigate one of the confirmed town rather than him? But then that would mean he had to have passed the spore to Seb on night 4 so that Seb was turned on day 5?

If seb was turned night 4 why would the host recall the spore? This is based on the agent not revealing

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Well, I can't speak for Party, but for myself I still work 9 hours a day, commute, have two kids, a dog, a cat, a husband, friends, and am incubating a child. If it was acceptable to pop in and just post jokes, I'd be around a lot more. But I need to dedicate time to really read stuff and think it through to form opinions about the game before posting. Else you guys tear it apart. And/or small (and imo seemingly innocent) mistakes are magnified to be suspicious.

Anyways, with all that being said, Party is moving up my suspicion list. Choosing between Squiggs and Party as current vote leaders, I'd vote Party. The Devo vote was interesting to say the least. And Squiggs posts read somewhat argumentative/passionate townie to me. Party's read more calculated and strategic. Granted that could just be both of their natural game play style and they would play that style regardless of their alignment.

Ok back to paying attention at swimming lessons. Hopefully will be back later this evening.

Peanut, why exactly was PE moving up your suspicion list?

Originally Posted by Peanut

Agree that Pux's voting record hasn't been stellar (sorry Pux), even though she is confirmed town. There's just too many variables for one townie to be able to lead the charge at this point. I also think the GA revealing means they would be a spore target, and then if they send it to Pux next, we would essentially lose her as "confirmed" town the day after because her immunity would be gone. And could the scum not cast suspicion on the GA reveal by lying or revealing themselves as a GA to confuse us and potentially increase the chance of a GA lynch? I just think the GA is safer in hiding at the moment.

I'm coming to the conclusion that Oling and Squiggs are two townies fighting. Please stop fighting. (Although I am still more suspicious of Oling than Squiggs. Don't understand strong push to get GA to reveal. He's also made some mistakes along the way even though he calls people out on theirs. He does seem to be steering the game to an extent but his play could be strong, opinionated town). I think the right vote is Party at this point, even though he is my favourite user name. Sigh.

Vote: Party Elephant

So you say Pux's record isn't that good, but then vote for the exact same person as her without giving much reason for doing so? It seems weird to me.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Of all the votes against me, this one breaks my heart the most. Peanut, how could you?

PE, after Peanut voting for without really giving any reasoning why did you react like this?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

If seb was turned night 4 why would the host recall the spore? This is based on the agent not revealing

The wouldn't. I wasn't really thinking about that though, I was looking at it from a squiggs motivation angle.

[Oling_Roachinen]

If we go with Devo22 having the spore but not being turned (obviously), Bizaro86 jumping off after the reveal is no-risk if he's host.

If it works and people jump off with him, the spore stays in the game. If it doesn't, Devo22 gets revealed as town.

If he's town, the risk of jumping off is a no lynch as GGG has said.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Also is this what everyone thinks is happening with the agent? I want to make sure I am not assuming the wrong thing before I vote.

No one has disagreed with this at all. I would suspect that if the agent disagreed with this course of action they would have posted that they didnt like the idea for some reason.

Therefore i am confident that the hosts killed seb.

[Hockeyguy15]

Oling and GGG what is your take on the Peanut/PE exchange I just posted?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I don't know what Timbo is after reading the last few game days over.

At the start he was contributing to the discussion, but not really 'hunting'. Then he seems to get a bit riled up with the whole quicktopic thing, and then full blown off the deep end after you vote for him.

Why would a host get so pissed off after 1 vote? I'm not sure that would be something they would do, maybe some damage control but to go "full Timbo" doesn't seem like what they would do.

I'm thinking it's possible that Timbo was given the spore and maybe infected. I think there are better lynch targets right now than Timbo.

This is pretty much exactly what I figured you would post, lol. Continuing to protect each other.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This is pretty much exactly what I figured you would post, lol. Continuing to protect each other.

Weird, this is what I thought you would post.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Unfortunately, I have commitments that may prevent me from posting for the remainder of the day.

I have 0 votes right now, ironic since I've asked Timbo to change his vote to me, but if Timbo is able to "put up" and I am lynched I have no reason for a death post. I've said everything I wanted to.

I would like to draw attention to this post from 20 days ago:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Timbo and mrkajz44, or potentially Timbo and Squiggs96. Similiarly I think Timbo and mrkajz44's accusations against one another may have been fabricated to draw distance between one another. Squiggs96 casting that GirlySports vote to keep her in range of hammer may have been to prevent any last second shift to Timbo.

The Timbo and Squiggs96 connection didn't start today, I had my suspicion of them for weeks.