Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Oh, it's a trend. Lucic has had 3 straight seasons of diminishing point totals. The first season was marginal, but he also had a lot of 1st line ice time that year. It's a very common trajectory for players around 30 to have a slight drop off, then a bigger drop-off, and then an even bigger one after that. Very few players that I can think of ever pull back up after that point.

Right now, Neal is just had one down season (although it was way down). It's more difficult to infer a trend with just one data point though.

I like the other things Lucic brings over Neal though, so I don't mind the trade in general, but I can see it being a better deal for Edmonton.

I don't think you can use the 2016-2017 season as a data point, it doesn't indicate that he was trending down. I'm not arguing that he's going to rebound; he's likely not going to recover his offense much, if at all. My point is really that based on the last few seasons it doesn't seem to me that it is much more likely for Neal to rebound than for Lucic. If both players return to their 2017-2018 numbers, then I would say it's a win for both teams... 10pts less for Lucic, but plays a more physical game and acts as a bit of a deterrent.

[Split98]

I expect that we're going to hear a lot about this trade from the confident bunch up north until December 27th by around 9:15PM.

By that point, Neal is likely to be coming off his hot start on McDavid's wing - as teams have learned and easily closed off the cavern of space McDavid was threading gifts through. While Lucic might want to win Calgary fans over for life by running through his old team.

As a Calgary Flames fan, I couldn't ask for a better potential storyline. A storyline that's only possible if you sign Neal... he sucks... and you end up with Edmonton's anchor.

[getoverit]

Don’t forget Talbot and Smith squaring off 😊

Originally Posted by Split98

I expect that we're going to hear a lot about this trade from the confident bunch up north until December 27th by around 9:15PM.

By that point, Neal is likely to be coming off his hot start on McDavid's wing - as teams have learned and easily closed off the cavern of space McDavid was threading gifts through. While Lucic might want to win Calgary fans over for life by running through his old team.

As a Calgary Flames fan, I couldn't ask for a better potential storyline. A storyline that's only possible if you sign Neal... he sucks... and you end up with Edmonton's anchor.

[BloodFetish]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Why are you guys talking about Bruce Cockburn?

Because Edmonton. And syphilis.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Pretending hockey is only played 5 on 5 doesn't change the fact that Chiasson largely only scored when on a line with at least one of those two, and often both.

All situations, Chiasson played 785 minutes with Draisaitl and 474 with McDavid.

Out of curiosity, I looked up all of Chiasson's goals last season. These are the players who were on the ice when the goal was scored, according to the official game summary. Players credited with assists are bolded...

1. 4, 25, 28, 33, 39, 44
2. 6, 22, 29, 33, 39, 77
3. 6, 22, 29, 33, 39, 77
4. 13, 22, 29, 33, 39, 83
5. 13, 19, 22, 29, 39, 83
6. 6, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97
7. 6, 19, 39, 44, 77 (SH)
8. 29, 33, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
9. 29, 33, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
10. 6, 33, 39, 77, 91, 93
11. 19, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
12. 6, 16, 33, 39, 77, 93
13. 25, 29, 33, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
14. 6, 19, 25, 29, 39, 97
15. 6, 19, 25, 29, 39, 97
16. 19, 25, 29, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
17. 25, 29, 33, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
18. 4, 19, 25, 27, 39, 97
19. 4, 19, 25, 29, 39, 89
20. 19, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
21. 4, 19, 25, 27, 39, 93
22. 19, 25, 29, 39, 77, 93 (PP)

For the 22 goals scored by Chiasson:

• Draisaitl was on the ice for 16 of them, and assisted on 6.
• McDavid was on the ice for 11 of them, and assisted on 9.

Chiasson scored 8 power play goals. Draisaitl was on the ice for all of them, and McDavid was on for all but one (scored after he was injured in the last game of the season).

Chiasson scored 1 shorthanded goal and neither Draisaitl nor McDavid were on the ice for that one.

Of Chiasson's 13 even strength goals, Draisaitl was on the ice for 8 and McDavid was on the ice for 4.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Itse

When I look at this, the first and really only thing of significance I'm reading from it is "expected goals is yet another "advanced" stat that at the very least is not what it says it is, and most likely is just nonsense better ignored."

I think what it can do is helps you understand two aspects of a players performance.

Expected Goals itself can help you understand how good a player is at creating scoring chances for themselves/getting to scoring areas, and then the different between their actual goal totals and expected goal totals can show you "finishing ability".

Both things I think are important to understand when evaluating a goal scorer.

So in the Lucic vs Neal comparison a big part of the value that Neal drives was his ability to score from anywhere, both guys generated chances at close to the same rate but traditionally Neal did a much better job of finishing those chances even though maybe he wasn't elite at chance generation.

So for a guy that was a pure finisher like him it really showed when the finishing ability dropped off . The thing with Neal now is it's a question of if he still has that ability, or if it's completely gone, because he doesn't provide much else if he's not finishing.

And when you try to sanity check the numbers I think eGF and the differential does check out.

So when you look at expected goals here are the top 10 guys in Expected Goals (aka generating individual scoring opportunities)

1) McDavid: 60.2
2) Skinner: 57.3
3) Gallagher: 56.4
4) Matthews: 54.3
5) Tavares: 53.8
6) E. Kane: 51.6
7) Ovechkin: 51.2
8) Crosby: 50.5
9) Seguin: 50.1
10) Saad: 49.1

So that list there seems pretty accurate as some of the best individual scoring chance creators in the league, with really only Gallagher being a guy that surprises me.

However if you also look at the guys that out performed their expected goals by the most (5v5) over the last 3 years then that starts to tell the other half of the story.

1. Kucherov: 29.8
2. Laine: 25.4
3. Matthews: 24.6
4. Arvidsson: 22.5
5. P. Kane: 21.1
6. Connolly: 20.7
7. Lee: 19.9
8. Ovechkin: 18.8
9. JVR: 18.3
10. Guentzel: 18.3

A list of guys you could consider to be great finishers.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by getbak

Out of curiosity, I looked up all of Chiasson's goals last season. These are the players who were on the ice when the goal was scored, according to the official game summary. Players credited with assists are bolded...

1. 4, 25, 28, 33, 39, 44
2. 6, 22, 29, 33, 39, 77
3. 6, 22, 29, 33, 39, 77
4. 13, 22, 29, 33, 39, 83
5. 13, 19, 22, 29, 39, 83
6. 6, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97
7. 6, 19, 39, 44, 77 (SH)
8. 29, 33, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
9. 29, 33, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
10. 6, 33, 39, 77, 91, 93
11. 19, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
12. 6, 16, 33, 39, 77, 93
13. 25, 29, 33, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
14. 6, 19, 25, 29, 39, 97
15. 6, 19, 25, 29, 39, 97
16. 19, 25, 29, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
17. 25, 29, 33, 39, 93, 97 (PP)
18. 4, 19, 25, 27, 39, 97
19. 4, 19, 25, 29, 39, 89
20. 19, 29, 39, 77, 93, 97 (PP)
21. 4, 19, 25, 27, 39, 93
22. 19, 25, 29, 39, 77, 93 (PP)

For the 22 goals scored by Chiasson:

• Draisaitl was on the ice for 16 of them, and assisted on 6.
• McDavid was on the ice for 11 of them, and assisted on 9.

Chiasson scored 8 power play goals. Draisaitl was on the ice for all of them, and McDavid was on for all but one (scored after he was injured in the last game of the season).

Chiasson scored 1 shorthanded goal and neither Draisaitl nor McDavid were on the ice for that one.

Of Chiasson's 13 even strength goals, Draisaitl was on the ice for 8 and McDavid was on the ice for 4.

Nice job. Must have been a fair bit of work.

I see he got his first one with Lucic’s linemates 28 and 44 on the ice. (Or despite them... only Russell assisted)

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Some people are scared Neal will rebound with the Oilers I guess?

A few reasons I’m not scared

1) Neal’s goal totals may rebound but I’ve seen enough of his game to know he’ll be a liability in other ways. If he’s a 25 goal powerplay specialist who drags his lines down at even strength? Great!
2) if his goal totals rebound we probably get the 3rd rounder.

Neal sucks. The Oilers suck. It’s a great fit! I’m happy they now have one of the worst forwards we’ve had in the past 5 years. No, I’m not scared he’ll rebound because I think he’ll be hurting the Oilers at even strength. Yes I think they will be able to utilize Neal better as a one dimensional shooter than we could. But he’s still one-dimensional. I’m not sure he can outscore his negative floaty play. I’ll be quite happy for the Flames to end up with the Oilers 3rd if his numbers rebound.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Count me in the camp unconcerned with Neal increasing his scoring. The whole point of bringing Neal in was to reduce the load on johnny / mony and distribute the offense. If Neal's offense depends on being on the ice with the best player at all times, then he simple doesn't serve the purpose we needed.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

Has the world ended yet?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Why are you guys talking about Bruce Cockburn?

They're wondering where the lions are.

[getoverit]

2370 posts in so it’s still possible 😂

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

Has the world ended yet?

[edslunch]

I appreciate the analysis in this thread that attempts to explain the deal from the Flames’ perspective and why they may have done the deal - money, physicality, role, potential room issues. When it veers into explanations and stats that seem to suggest it’s actually a good situation my eyes glaze over. Lucic and his contract were universally mocked here and elsewhere the past few years. I don’t see a big turn around coming regardless of his xGF. I’m not hoping for failure but not optimistic.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Still fumbling on whether or not the trade is good for me.

My Burger King order today was #17, it was destiny

[Split98]

Originally Posted by getoverit

Don’t forget Talbot and Smith squaring off

A real battle of stallions

[tfi racing]

Originally Posted by the2bears

They're wondering where the lions are.

Or the rocket launcher...

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Oh, it's a trend. Lucic has had 3 straight seasons of diminishing point totals. The first season was marginal, but he also had a lot of 1st line ice time that year. It's a very common trajectory for players around 30 to have a slight drop off, then a bigger drop-off, and then an even bigger one after that. Very few players that I can think of ever pull back up after that point.

Right now, Neal is just had one down season (although it was way down). It's more difficult to infer a trend with just one data point though.

I like the other things Lucic brings over Neal though, so I don't mind the trade in general, but I can see it being a better deal for Edmonton.

So you are ragging on Lucic’s 50pt season in Edmonton? In the last 3 years Neal has failed to score 45pts in a single season which is a significant decline from his 58pts 4 years ago. Neal has been trending down for 3 years as well unless his climb from 41ptsmin his last year in Nashville to 45pts in Vegas is a big step forward?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I appreciate the analysis in this thread that attempts to explain the deal from the Flames’ perspective and why they may have done the deal - money, physicality, role, potential room issues. When it veers into explanations and stats that seem to suggest it’s actually a good situation my eyes glaze over. Lucic and his contract were universally mocked here and elsewhere the past few years. I don’t see a big turn around coming regardless of his xGF. I’m not hoping for failure but not optimistic.

I don't recall anyone saying it was "a good situation", I'd characterize the extremely optimistic as thinking it's a slight improvement, or Lucic might be marginally useful because of his physicality.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I appreciate the analysis in this thread that attempts to explain the deal from the Flames’ perspective and why they may have done the deal - money, physicality, role, potential room issues. When it veers into explanations and stats that seem to suggest it’s actually a good situation my eyes glaze over. Lucic and his contract were universally mocked here and elsewhere the past few years. I don’t see a big turn around coming regardless of his xGF. I’m not hoping for failure but not optimistic.

I for one am excited..

Not because Lucic is better than Neal or because Lucic will turn things around and become a 50pt guy.

I'm excited because its something different... I was already sick of watching Neal here. His cap hit was already dead weight because he doesnt fit in our top 6 and our bottom 6 is better suited for guys like Bennett, Ryan, Mangiapane, Dube and Jankowski.

I know there would have still been room for him from a numbers perspective but I still dont like the fit.

Lucic will cause some sh#t out there and I like that.. injecting more emotion into games can only be a good thing for this team. We play better when we get angry and we play better when we are confident.

I think having Lucic around will inject some confidence in our group to not only have the ability to outscore teams but also respond physically when the chips are down or when a team keeps taking liberties.

Neal didnt offer much when he didnt score points so I'm excited to see some more value out of that cap hit even if that value cannot always be quantified the same way goal scoring can.

[djsFlames]

Neal wasn't a fit here, simply put.

There wasn't a spot where you even wanted to put him, because he didn't work with the games/styles of any of the established pairings. And I don't think he really tried to, either.

Lucic probably did add something in Edmonton that was overlooked because of what was expected when his contract was signed, and I suspect it may be noticed this season if teams start to take a few more liberties with their guys. I suppose Kassian is the backup deterrent, will he be as effective as Lucic?

Point is, Lucic may have a role here that works within the roster and is needed here. And that's a better alternative than square-peg-in-round hole-ing Neal for another season, plus. When it was evident he couldn't keep up with Gaudreau/Monahan, he no longer fit the blueprint and that entire plan for him to begin with.

It's a likely upgrade because it helps the team on the whole. The downside of course is that you send Neal to Edmonton, and if he truly gets his crap together, which I personally don't see because he was just SO far off, but if he does, yeah maybe you get one or two Chiasson-caliber seasons out of him. Not that that improves you, because if you move Chiasson down then he won't be nearly as productive and you're just replacing his offense with another guy. And hell that's probably best case scenario.

For whatever reason, I think there's greater potential for Lucic to make an impact with the Flames in a winning sense (if the penalties stay at a minimum). If Neal blindly taps in some easy setups he's still going to be slow and irresponsible, and Edmonton ultimately still loses as much as they were before.

Especially if Costin'em can't hold up his end and they rely on streaky, erratic Mike Smith to keep pucks out.