Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[This post is terrible]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This. If you leave Chiasson on the first line to get his garbage points and you put Neal with RNH and they click, then it's a win for Edmonton. But Neal didn't look great with Backlund, who is as close to RNH as you get on Calgary.

I hope they play Neal with McDavid, that 3rd will be ours.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I know right?

I can't believe Oiler fans aren't more up in arms about this.

Smart point. But sadly there are a lot more flames fans thinking Neal will light it up with mcdavid than there are oilers fans concerned about whatever it is lucic will add here. Thats the rub for me

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Right, but Lucic wasn't scoring 20 with McDavid.

So they traded a worse contract of a worse player who couldn't produce for a bad contract for a player who actually can.

If Neal scores 40 points next year playing with McDavid and Lucic scores 20 points playing with Jankowski, it's a home run for Edmonton.

He scored 10 in 17-18 playing a lot more more with McDavid. Literally every ES point he got was with a good centre, 11 out of 24 with McDavid, the rest with Draisaitl or RNH.

In 2016-17 he scored 24 goals/46 points, largely on the top line.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'm not convinced that switching out Hathaway and Neal for Lucic is a net positive for the Flames.

I think Lucic - Jankowski - Bennett is worse than Hathaway - Jankowski - Bennett

But

Bennett - Ryan - Mangiapane is better than Bennett - Ryan - Neal

It's not earth shattering but I don't think the Flames are better than they were last year at this point and will get worse barring a home run for Frolik and Brodie, which still has to happen because Lucic is still making 5+

At this point I think the best possible outcome for Calgary is this is a lateral move.

Yeah it's a small margin either way.

But Hathaway was a time bomb on a stick. I liked the guy, and he found a niche on the PK, but five on five he was a play destroyer, not enabler.

Neal wasn't much better to be honest when it came to the flow of the game.

I'm not about to go watch 10 Oiler games, but any time a guy pulls on the Calgary jersey you see him more closely. If Lucic is a tire fire with the puck and coming out of his own zone then it's toughness only. If he can get pucks deep, be part of a forecheck and not get owned when he's on the ice he's a step forward.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Corral

Smart point. But sadly there are a lot more flames fans thinking Neal will light it up with mcdavid than there are oilers fans concerned about whatever it is lucic will add here. Thats the rub for me

If you're looking at this deal in offensive terms that's the only conclusion you can come to.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You think warts are good? That's the only way I'd find it interesting.

Otherwise we're both agreeing it's been an issue, and a place of concern. I even got into how they missed the mark on Brouwer and Neal's underlying numbers and lack of speed at their age.

Stone is what he is. At 3.5M in today's NHL that's not a crippling signing, it's a guy over paid by about a million bucks as an insurance policy. Ryan was great. Engelland was value. The first year of Hiller was fine. Frolik has been good. Raymond was a face plant at the time they were trying to get to the floor.

Every team has one of these guys for the most part ... or have wiggled out of one recently.

This is a minor point, but if Raymond was signed to a 3 year contract for the purpose of getting to the cap floor in year 1, I would lose my mind.

One of Tre’s problems has been overpaying for depth players. Even his best signings are singles (useful players at a high price).

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'm not convinced that switching out Hathaway and Neal for Lucic is a net positive for the Flames.

I think Lucic - Jankowski - Bennett is worse than Hathaway - Jankowski - Bennett

But

Bennett - Ryan - Mangiapane is better than Bennett - Ryan - Neal

It's not earth shattering but I don't think the Flames are better than they were last year at this point and will get worse barring a home run for Frolik and Brodie, which still has to happen because Lucic is still making 5+

At this point I think the best possible outcome for Calgary is this is a lateral move.

You could look at it as replacing Hathaway and Neal for Lucic and Dube/Mangiapane? The team is just better with Neal gone no matter who they replaced him with. There wasn't a single position on this team where there wasn't someone else in the system who would be better in that position. With Lucic, we don't have a single player on the team who can deliver the 3+ hits a night on a consistent basis. It's been repeated a lot, but Lucic does slot better (to steal from Loubardias)

[Oling_Roachinen]

Last year Lucic and Chiasson scored 28 goals making a combined 6.6M (cap hit).

This year Neal (+Lucic) and Chiasson will be making a combined 8.7M (cap hit). Yet I'd be willing to bet they don't score much more than the 28 goals.

Yes, it's hard to look at it in a pure vacuum like that but that's why I'm not really afraid of the Oilers coming out on top of this trade even if Neal has a decent season playing in the top six.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

This is a minor point, but if Raymond was signed to a 3 year contract for the purpose of getting to the cap floor in year 1, I would lose my mind.

One of Tre’s problems has been overpaying for depth players. Even his best signings are singles (useful players at a high price).

Regardless of reason you don't want the guy bought out.

And that was a iffy signing for day one, just less impactful because they were in full rebuild.

He did walk away from Coburn, Lazar and Hathaway so maybe he's learning.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah Neal is the better ES goal scorer over the last couple seasons - so there is a chance he rebounds in that area for sure. And really that's what the 3rd rounder is based on.

The big thing that the Oilers are banking on for Neal is he can get back to his ES scoring ways and a lot of that is shooting percentage based.

The big thing that stands out for me when looking back at Neal prior to last year was that he was a guy that's shooting percentage really drove up his goal total - as he really out performed his "expected goals".

Spoiler!

If you look at the two seasons prior to last one at Even Strength:

16-18

Neal:
Goals - 38
Shooting %: 11.31
Expected Goals: 27.7

Lucic:
Goals - 18
Shooting %: 7.2
Expected Goals: 26.4

So based on this Lucic was actually a guy underperforming his expected goals by about 9, and then Neal was out performing by about 10.

Then last year that shooting percentage went away for Neal.

18-19

Neal:
Goals - 5
Shooting %: 4.5
Expected Goals: 8.2

Lucic:
Goals - 4
Shooting %: 6.0
Expected Goals: 8.1

So the question for Neal and the Oilers is if that was a one year blip and he can find his shot again - or if it was something structurally in his game that is going to be tough to recover...which appears to be what happened to Lucic.

If you look at Lucic's Even Strength shooting percentage his three years in Edmonton, vs the 3 years prior.

Lucic - 13-16

Goals: 55
Shooting %: 15.5
Expected Goals: 38

Lucic 16-19

Goals: 22
Shooting %: 6.9
Expected Goals: 34.6

Expected Goals was pretty consistent but his shooting percentage dropped in half as he couldn't find his shot again.

When you look back at the 3 years prior to last year for each of these guys it's kind of remarkable how similar they are from an advanced stat and from a production perspective.

Really Neal was the better goal scorer, but everything else was pretty close.

Which really raises the question of why we gave Neal the contract we gave him to start with...especially since by that point the Lucic contract was seen as bad.

Spoiler!

2015-2018: All Situations

Neal:
Goals: 79
Points: 143
SH%: 11.8%
Expected Goals: 61.7
P/60: 2.13

Lucic:
Goals: 53
Points: 139
SH%: 11.9%
Expected Goals: 57.4
P/60: 2.03

2015-2018 Even Strength

Neal:
CF%: 53.0
CF% Rel: 1.99

HDCF%: 52.9
HDCF% Rel: 1.43

xGF%: 52.1
xGF% Rel: -0.88

Lucic:
CF %: 54.1
CF % Rel: 2.49

HDCF%: 53.4
HDCF% Rel: 1.64

xGF%: 52.4
xGF% Rel: 0.24

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Regardless of reason you don't want the guy bought out.

And that was a iffy signing for day one, just less impactful because they were in full rebuild.

He did walk away from Coburn, Lazar and Hathaway so maybe he's learning.

What's this about Coburn? I don't recall ever hearing anything about him coming to Calgary... though I'm getting to have a horrible remembery.

Edit: Nevermind, I just realized you probably meant Joe Colborne.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Buff

What's this about Coburn? I don't recall ever hearing anything about him coming to Calgary... though I'm getting to have a horrible remembery.

He meant Joe Colborne.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by AC

He meant Joe Colborne.

Yeah, I forgot about him... that memory thing of mine.

I mean, That's what I said!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Buff

Yeah, I forgot about him... that memory thing of mine.

I mean, That's what I said!

No that's on me ... terrible spelling.

It's one thing to offer up a typo but I gave you the spelling of a completely different player.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No that's on me ... terrible spelling.

It's one thing to offer up a typo but I gave you the spelling of a completely different player.

Naw, if I had a good memory I could have figured out who you meant.

[PepsiFree]

Why are you guys talking about Bruce Cockburn?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I don't know that I would call Lucic's production a trend, necessarily. He had 20pts last season and 34 pts the season before. If he got back to the 35 pt range while still being a physical force/deterrent on the ice then I think the trade is a win for the Flames. If Neal pots 20 and gets 45 pts, while doing nothing else, I don't know if that is much better... I guess my point is, if both players returned to the players they were in 2017-2018 I think you could consider this trade a win for both teams - and I think both of these outcomes are equally as likely.

Oh, it's a trend. Lucic has had 3 straight seasons of diminishing point totals. The first season was marginal, but he also had a lot of 1st line ice time that year. It's a very common trajectory for players around 30 to have a slight drop off, then a bigger drop-off, and then an even bigger one after that. Very few players that I can think of ever pull back up after that point.

Right now, Neal is just had one down season (although it was way down). It's more difficult to infer a trend with just one data point though.

I like the other things Lucic brings over Neal though, so I don't mind the trade in general, but I can see it being a better deal for Edmonton.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Why are you guys talking about Bruce Cockburn?

"Lucic in a dangerous time"

[Itse]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah Neal is the better ES goal scorer over the last couple seasons - so there is a chance he rebounds in that area for sure. And really that's what the 3rd rounder is based on.

The big thing that the Oilers are banking on for Neal is he can get back to his ES scoring ways and a lot of that is shooting percentage based.

The big thing that stands out for me when looking back at Neal prior to last year was that he was a guy that's shooting percentage really drove up his goal total - as he really out performed his "expected goals".

Spoiler!

If you look at the two seasons prior to last one at Even Strength:

16-18

Neal:
Goals - 38
Shooting %: 11.31
Expected Goals: 27.7

Lucic:
Goals - 18
Shooting %: 7.2
Expected Goals: 26.4

So based on this Lucic was actually a guy underperforming his expected goals by about 9, and then Neal was out performing by about 10.

Then last year that shooting percentage went away for Neal.

18-19

Neal:
Goals - 5
Shooting %: 4.5
Expected Goals: 8.2

Lucic:
Goals - 4
Shooting %: 6.0
Expected Goals: 8.1

So the question for Neal and the Oilers is if that was a one year blip and he can find his shot again - or if it was something structurally in his game that is going to be tough to recover...which appears to be what happened to Lucic.

If you look at Lucic's Even Strength shooting percentage his three years in Edmonton, vs the 3 years prior.

Lucic - 13-16

Goals: 55
Shooting %: 15.5
Expected Goals: 38

Lucic 16-19

Goals: 22
Shooting %: 6.9
Expected Goals: 34.6

Expected Goals was pretty consistent but his shooting percentage dropped in half as he couldn't find his shot again.

When you look back at the 3 years prior to last year for each of these guys it's kind of remarkable how similar they are from an advanced stat and from a production perspective.

Really Neal was the better goal scorer, but everything else was pretty close.

Which really raises the question of why we gave Neal the contract we gave him to start with...especially since by that point the Lucic contract was seen as bad.

Spoiler!

2015-2018: All Situations

Neal:
Goals: 79
Points: 143
SH%: 11.8%
Expected Goals: 61.7
P/60: 2.13

Lucic:
Goals: 53
Points: 139
SH%: 11.9%
Expected Goals: 57.4
P/60: 2.03

2015-2018 Even Strength

Neal:
CF%: 53.0
CF% Rel: 1.99

HDCF%: 52.9
HDCF% Rel: 1.43

xGF%: 52.1
xGF% Rel: -0.88

Lucic:
CF %: 54.1
CF % Rel: 2.49

HDCF%: 53.4
HDCF% Rel: 1.64

xGF%: 52.4
xGF% Rel: 0.24

When I look at this, the first and really only thing of significance I'm reading from it is "expected goals is yet another "advanced" stat that at the very least is not what it says it is, and most likely is just nonsense better ignored."

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

"Lucic in a dangerous time"

I know what Treliving was thinking.

If I had a Milan Lucic...