American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Looch City]

Put your money where your keyboard hands are and place a bet on Trump.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Put your money where your keyboard hands are and place a bet on Trump.

It’s actually the opposite if you believe that betting markets accurately reflect the race there is no money to be made betting either side. If you believe Harris is undervalued right now you should bet on Harris.

But what people get wrong is that for a model to be correct it has to be wrong the % of time it says it will be. I think most would agree that the odds set by sports books for football are pretty good. Why are they good? Because roughly 50%(actually 48% in last 10 years but within the margin of the Vig) of the time people cover.

So when someone says x odds maker was right on all the elections that isn’t actually evidence that the odds maker is predicting accurate odds. For the odds maker to be accurate it must be night and wrong the correct amount of the time. As Fuzz alludes to above they need equal odds adjusted money on either side. Now equal odds adjusted money converges with the actual odds of an event as the market gets more efficient.

For football the market is highly predictive because of how much sharp money there is and how well stats can predict the likelyhood of results.

[Weitz]

I’m just surprised there isn’t any (big) money coming in on the Dems. Lots of +ve if you go by the polls…

[Firebot]

I don't know what it means if the most important thing to discuss about the elections at the moment is betting odds and how accurate Pinnacle is.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I don't know what it means if the most important thing to discuss about the elections at the moment is betting odds and how accurate Pinnacle is.

Unfortunately I don't see it going away. Apparently even high school kids are hooked on sports betting now. Who would have thunk it

[CliffFletcher]

The wonkification of elections into frenzied speculation about polls, data models, and betting odds may not be the worst thing about how we cover politics in 2024. But it’s right up there.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the market leaves no stone unturned in fueling the demand for 24/7 election content. Gotta keep that engagement humming.

[Senator Clay Davis]

In the hyper-polarized, post-truth world we live in there isn't really any room for legitimate discourse. So we fill our time talking about how degenerate gamblers are getting down, and all other aspects of sideshow. C'est la vie and all that.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The wonkification of elections into frenzied speculation about polls, data models, and betting odds may not be the worst thing about how we cover politics in 2024. But it’s right up there.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the market leaves no stone unturned in fueling the demand for 24/7 election content. Gotta keep that engagement humming.

After legalized sports gambling and the incessant drivel dedicated to it, i guess we all should have saw it coming...

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I don't know what it means if the most important thing to discuss about the elections at the moment is betting odds and how accurate Pinnacle is.

Would you rather debate if the world going to end if Trump wins vs if it’s just going to be ####ty for everyone who isn’t in the top 10% of incomes.

There isn’t much disagreement here that Trump is the worse option. It’s been two years. What’s left meaningful to discuss.

[ResAlien]

Having never heard of Polymarket before MegaHertz started providing their updates it’s funny that now Elon’s Twitter is sponsoring their content directly at me on the search tab. I’m sure it’s a fair, balanced, and competent system of prognosticating an election. I like it

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Having never heard of Polymarket before MegaHertz started providing their updates it’s funny that now Elon’s Twitter is sponsoring their content directly at me on the search tab. I’m sure it’s a fair, balanced, and competent system of prognosticating an election. I like it

There has been tons of discussion in trading circles about this, because there has consistently been a potential arbitrage where the odds of Trump winning are better on Polymarket than elsewhere. See: https://archive.ph/VmVC1 for just one example from Matt Levine of Bloomberg.

For a variety of reasons the arbitrage isn't a clean one, mostly having to do with slightly different definitions of the contracts and who wins. So in an edge case where the election is contested or something you could get screwed. The other big one is that on some markets both the Harris and Trump contracts could pay out - its possible for them to both be President in the next year if Biden resigns or dies before the handover and Trump wins the election.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Having never heard of Polymarket before MegaHertz started providing their updates it’s funny that now Elon’s Twitter is sponsoring their content directly at me on the search tab. I’m sure it’s a fair, balanced, and competent system of prognosticating an election. I like it

Ya, it's all part of a the Tech Bro takeover. These people selected Vance for VP, knowing they could control his dumb ass and get whatever they want. Polymarket is partially owned by noted POS Peter Thiel who worked with Musk at PayPal, before finding Musk intolerable and, with the help of noted Russian stooge David Sacks, ejected him. But they are all working to the same goal here. Dropping copious amounts of absolute bull#### to manipulate the election, give the impression Trump is doing better than he is, and have "the receipts" they made up themselves when it comes time to argue the election was stolen. They are all awful horrible people who only care about getting more power and money.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

The issue here is that Harris' only path to victory is by winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. A week ago all three were coin flips, but she needed to win all three.

Tonight in Michigan:
Trump -107, Harris -113

Pennsylvania
Trump -153, Harris +126

Wisconsin
Trump -131, Harris +108

Trump is definitely going to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The Liberals in Canada have a better chance of sweeping Calgary in the next federal election than Harris has of winning Florida or Texas next week.

If you look at early voting stats for those states it doesn't look so dire:
The % of early voters by party registration looks pretty good for Harris:

Michigan:
D: 48%
R: 41%
Other: 11%

Pen:
D: 59%
R: 31%
Other: 10%

Wis:
D: 36%
R: 23%
Other: 41%

If she Needs to win those 3 they look pretty good so far (I'll take voting info over betting odds).

NC is pretty even, and the others look good for republicans, but I'd say if those 3 are the most important, then the real data is looking okay for Harris.

[shermanator]

Anyone who's seen MegaErtz' predictions in various soccer threads should be excited that they are predicting a Trump win.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

If you look at early voting stats for those states it doesn't look so dire:
The % of early voters by party registration looks pretty good for Harris:

Michigan:
D: 48%
R: 41%
Other: 11%

Pen:
D: 59%
R: 31%
Other: 10%

Wis:
D: 36%
R: 23%
Other: 41%

If she Needs to win those 3 they look pretty good so far (I'll take voting info over betting odds).

NC is pretty even, and the others look good for republicans, but I'd say if those 3 are the most important, then the real data is looking okay for Harris.

I think you'd need to compare that to previous elections though for it to be meaningful. For example, do urban voters tend to vote earlier more than rural ones? If so, you'd expect dems to have the clear lead in early voters.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

The issue here is that Harris' only path to victory is by winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. A week ago all three were coin flips, but she needed to win all three.

Tonight in Michigan:
Trump -107, Harris -113

Pennsylvania
Trump -153, Harris +126

Wisconsin
Trump -131, Harris +108

Trump is definitely going to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The Liberals in Canada have a better chance of sweeping Calgary in the next federal election than Harris has of winning Florida or Texas next week.

Nevada is definitely still in play.

Georgia and NC are still possible for the Dems but not likely.

But yeah the issue is if the national vote is within a point or two, the Dems need to win all the close states. That has been the case since the beginning, right now the electoral map greatly favors the Republicans if the election is close enough for that to matter.

[MegaErtz]

Nevada is not really in play, Trump is -193 there, Harris +158. Jon Ralston is worth a follow on Twitter, he figures the Republicans are ahead by about 38,000 votes in Nevada right now, and he's never wrong.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, it's all part of a the Tech Bro takeover. These people selected Vance for VP, knowing they could control his dumb ass and get whatever they want. Polymarket is partially owned by noted POS Peter Thiel who worked with Musk at PayPal, before finding Musk intolerable and, with the help of noted Russian stooge David Sacks, ejected him. But they are all working to the same goal here. Dropping copious amounts of absolute bull#### to manipulate the election, give the impression Trump is doing better than he is, and have "the receipts" they made up themselves when it comes time to argue the election was stolen. They are all awful horrible people who only care about getting more power and money.

Ohh now this is starting to make sense

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850915426466979855

Ok my bad I thought polymarket was like a real thing I didn’t realize it was totally imaginary made up crypto horse####. That’s my bad.

[burn_this_city]

This race isn't as close as it appears. Lots of people drinking the right wing bath water this cycle and the pollsters are all over the place.

This looks pretty bad for Trump.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850831163608166607

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

This race isn't as close as it appears. Lots of people drinking the right wing bath water this cycle and the pollsters are all over the place.

This looks pretty bad for Trump.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850831163608166607

I mean, I get people bringing up the betting sites all the time is annoying so I apologize in advance.

But if you're pretty sure Harris is going to win you should totally sign up and take some of the money people are betting on Trump. It would be like a double win - you'd more than double your money plus be happy in the knowledge the money you won came from a MAGA type (or possibly some shady Russians trying to influence the vote).