CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Read post before that. Alright I think we are on the same page GGG.

Maybe a Party Elephant is the best move?

I'm worried about Bizaro. I don't think he and Party are compatible on the scum team. Can you rationalize Bizaros behaviour the last two days around the deadline.

First the 4 minute late vote with the life excuse then the bizarre unvote with 10 min to deadline. He's explained votes both but to big errors in play on consecutive days.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If the Government Agent didn't want me to vote Squiggs96, I wouldn't. I'd put my faith in a confirmed townie.

Ok so you are valuing the townie status more so then any info they might bring to the table.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Ok so you are valuing the townie status more so then any info they might bring to the table.

If we are in a 7-5 situation, a possibility we simply can't dismiss, we pretty much need every townie to work together to lynch a scum.

Having Puxlut and Government Agent to go with at least gives us a greater opportunity of getting all the town working together.

Right now, I believe, we have votes going all over the place, 4 different people. The host could jump, might not even have to, to get whoever they wanted lynched at the deadline without looking suspicious really.

[starseed]

I am probably going to pass out early, but my thoughts on the GA reveal is that they should make the judgement call themselves. I would lean towards revealing due to the decent 25% odds + confirmed townie, plus potentially getting control of the spore, but they are a good tool in controlling the scum numbers, and I would not hold it against them if they need to stay under for a bit longer.

[Timbo]

Confirmed town status has not helped Puxluts voting record. Just because the Genetic A and the GA agree on who to vote does not guarantee they would be right.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I'm heading out soon as well. I hope more people discuss it and think it over. If there are 5 people against us, they probably just want to stay status quo, not make any waves. If your town, you should be putting in your input about it.

Originally Posted by GGG

Ok so you are valuing the townie status more so then any info they might bring to the table.

And to add, a Government Agent reveal would allow us to go back and see what "connections" were wrong. Give us a ton more information about the game than just who they checked.

If I think so-and-so is working with suspicious person and so-and-so reveals, I have to drop it if I believe the reveal.

I don't think the town is in control at all, let's try and change that.

Right now I'm leaning heavily to Government Agent revealing and I think everyone should discuss it.

[Peanut]

Agree that Pux's voting record hasn't been stellar (sorry Pux), even though she is confirmed town. There's just too many variables for one townie to be able to lead the charge at this point. I also think the GA revealing means they would be a spore target, and then if they send it to Pux next, we would essentially lose her as "confirmed" town the day after because her immunity would be gone. And could the scum not cast suspicion on the GA reveal by lying or revealing themselves as a GA to confuse us and potentially increase the chance of a GA lynch? I just think the GA is safer in hiding at the moment.

I'm coming to the conclusion that Oling and Squiggs are two townies fighting. Please stop fighting. (Although I am still more suspicious of Oling than Squiggs. Don't understand strong push to get GA to reveal. He's also made some mistakes along the way even though he calls people out on theirs. He does seem to be steering the game to an extent but his play could be strong, opinionated town). I think the right vote is Party at this point, even though he is my favourite user name. Sigh.

Vote: Party Elephant

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Unvote
Vote:Party Elephant

I think this might be our best shot at a suspected scum.

I might have missed it but why are you coming off the Mrkajz wagon?

[Timbo]

Okay so at this point we have...
In favour of GA reveal
1. Oling


Not in favour of the GA revealing at this time
1. GGG
2. Timbo
3. Peanut
4. Starseed (also leaves choice open to GA)

Undecided
1.HG15

In during the timeline of conversation but never gave opinion.

1. Puxlut
2. Bizarro
3. Diss
4. Squiggs


I think this is correct

I think it's up to the GA.

[GGG]

Squiggs what are your thoughts on party elephant?

Peanut why specifically do you think Party is scum

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

I might have missed it but why are you coming off the Mrkajz wagon?

I am not, but that wagon is not moving right now and PE seems like a better bet to lynch a host.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I think it's up to the GA.

I agree.

[mrkajz44]

I don't really love the idea of a reveal at this point. I can't believe I am saying this, but Timbo nailed it with the fact that even if we have two almost confirmed town (Pux and GA), it's not like their votes are 100% going to fall on a host.

In the end, the GA knows what is best based on their investigations and the results so far. For all of us speculating on the reveal, we are all doing it with limited information on what the GA has done and what results they've seen. Therefore, I don't see how we can make that call (reveal or not) with incomplete information.

[Timbo]

Updated
In favour of GA reveal
1. Oling


Not in favour of the GA revealing at this time
1. GGG
2. Timbo
3. Peanut

Leave it up to the GA to decide
1. Starseed
2. Puxlut
3. Diss

Undecided
1.HG15

In during the timeline of conversation but never gave opinion.

1. Bizarro
2. Diss
3. Squiggs

Has not choosen at this time
1. mrkajz
2. Party Elephant

[Timbo]

Updated Again
In favour of GA reveal
1. Oling


Not in favour of the GA revealing at this time
1. GGG
2. Timbo
3. Peanut
4. mrkajz

Leave it up to the GA to decide
1. Starseed
2. Puxlut
3. Diss

Undecided
1.HG15

In during the timeline of conversation but never gave opinion.

1. Bizarro
2. Diss
3. Squiggs

Has not choosen at this time
1. Party Elephant

[Timbo]

disregard diss in the no opinion.

[Hockeyguy15]

Sorry I am on my phone and I want to look at the votes at the same time without known town, so I am making this post.

Vote 1 with deleted town

activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, Oling_Roachinen, GGG,
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, mrkajz44,
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner

Vote 2 with deleted town

GirlySports (9): dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant

Vote 3 with deleted town

East Coast Flame (7): GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man,
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner,

Vote 4 with deleted town
Hasn't Voted (1): Oling_Roachinen

Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (7): Timbo, Hockeyguy15, Starseed, GGG, bizaro86

Vote 5 with deleted town

devo22 (6): Oling_Roachinen, starseed, GGG, Party Elephant, mrkajz44
mrkajz44 (3): Hockeyguy15, dissentowner, Timbo
Party Elephant (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Updated Again
In favour of GA reveal
1. Oling


Not in favour of the GA revealing at this time
1. GGG
2. Timbo
3. Peanut
4. mrkajz

Leave it up to the GA to decide
1. Starseed
2. Puxlut
3. Diss

Undecided
1.HG15

In during the timeline of conversation but never gave opinion.

1. Bizarro
2. Diss
3. Squiggs

Has not choosen at this time
1. Party Elephant

I would say I'm marginally opposed to the GA revealing at this time. If they reveal and we get a counterclaim, we have essentially a 50/50 shot at killing the agent. If there is an active turned alive (which I think we need to assume) they have a lower cost of making a counter claim than one of the scum, as they can't communicate or get the spore back to send it. We're getting close to the point where the agent can be a big help to the town in getting the numbers down (ie, killing Seb may have saved the game already).

I can see oling's point about having another "confirmed" townie. As we get closer to the endgame I think the upside to having the GA reveal gets greater, as it reduces the places the scum has to hide. I don't think we're at lynch or lose yet, so I think it makes sense for the agent to hide for another day or maybe two at the most.

Ultimately though, if the agent feels they have information that could help the town figure out who to lynch now then I would trust their judgement. I guess I probably should go in the "agent decides" category on Timbo's list, but with a "leaning to not reveal" caveat.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Unvote
The Host and Turned can't coordinate this reveal. It's a possibility this is the last day. This is a fact that far too many people are overlooking. And because so many people are overlooking it, I think the chances are higher this is the case. 5 people want status quo, they don't want the boat rocked, they want us to have 4 people with votes, they want to have enough suspicion on everyone so that no change in votes looks too suspicious so even if they don't turn the last passenger they aren't outed. If Squiggs96 or Mrkajz44 or whoever else has revealed to be just a normal townie are telling the truth, the host can send it there way and could very well end this game tonight.

Hockeyguy15, Aeneas, GirlySports and myself were in this exact position last time. We got a bit impatient, revealed a little to much but really only got caught because Squiggs96 received a gun. We don't have a gun, this might be our only way of shifting momentum. Right now the Scum are just hoping every thing stays status quo, we just keep fighting with one another, they post a little bit but not enough to get them in the crossfire. And even if one or more of them are in trouble, they got enough support. If it's 7-5 we need to be pretty much perfect as a town. I know we aren't, at least right now, because I'm not voting with Puxlut. Every townie should feel the same way. We almost have to vote with Puxlut, whoever she decides. At least give her one more townie to talk to.

Tomorrow, if there's a tomorrow, the Turned and Host will have had time to coordinate. The Host could tell a Turned to "reveal" in hopes of getting credit for being the first one. They'll have a plan. They don't right now. They don't want this reveal any more than the townies who think the reveal is bad. That's why there's no support.

No one took up my cause, the scum are fine with the status quo. We're ####ing ourselves over. They got nothing to worry about, and because I'm the only one really going for this I'm going to look suspicious without anyone helping me out. They want me to look bad, they don't want the Government Agent to reveal, they don't want to tip their hands so the Government Agent knows who to check.

There's some serious downplaying of how much information a confirmed townie gives us. We can take a look at there posts, they might not be right, but at least they aren't purposely wrong. If it's 7-5, we need everything on the table.

People can act like trying to get a reveal is anti-town, so be it, but I was right about SebC. I think I'm right about this.