US Election Prediction Thread

[OutOfTheCube]

If dino7c is this confident in a Harris victory I expect to wake up tomorrow to a Trump win.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Those numbers are good for Harris if you understand them...very good

Trump has an absolute ceiling and needed to make hay on the economy...if that isn't there he is LOSING bigly. He needs at least a double digit lead on the economy.

It's important to keep in mind that exit polls aren't very rigorous though. In 2004 they showed Kerry winning pretty comfortably, but obviously Bush won that election.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by dammage79

They need voter turn out in the worst way, whether Trump wins or not. Last thing that country needs is a low voter turn out . Ppl need to get off their asses and vote one way or the other.

As a Canadian, I don't believe the vote matters as much, but in the U.S, it paints a

Idk. Harris winning big with Republicans staying home would be a really strong message to the GOP that people just don't like what they're doing.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Trump had a 14 point lead on the economy like 3 weeks ago when the race was supposedly tied. If it has actually closed that much she wins

I actually mistyped, where my op said economy,, it should have said immigration, but I corrected that after you quoted me. Trump only leads Harris by 4% for economy.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Definitely don't put a lot into exit polls, but the one significant thing to me is 'protecting democracy' as the top issue for a plurality of people. This was also the case in Selzer's Iowa poll, and some poll-watchers latched onto that as being highly unlikely and a sign that her polling was probably wrong.

The Democrats have been pounding that message at the never-Trumpers and reluctant-Trumpers. If we're seeing this message actually resonate with that audience, then Democrats might be doing even better in the early/mail voting than the R/D return counts suggest.

It does cut both ways though. Both parties have been talking about how if the other side wins, democracy will end as we know it. The Democrats are saying that Trump will give himself ultimate power, etc. and the Republicans are saying that the Democrats would shut down free speech platforms like Twitter if things don't align with their narrative.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Sources on all of those numbers?

Hope these work!

Spoiler!

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

He's running again out of spite/vanity. Trump doesn't care about America or anyone, but himself. He should have been thrilled to have won the first time... why run three times? When was the last candidate to run more than twice?... was it Roosevelt? Trump needs to go, he's well past his best before date.

I have this theory about Trump... what it basically boils down to is that his entire self-image is wrapped up in the concept of him being a "winner". If Donald Trump isn't a "winner" in his own mind then he would enter into a existential identity crisis, hence why he sows the seeds of malfeasance... in his mind if he loses it has to be a result of cheating or trickery (because then in his mind he can rationalize it so that he didn't really lose). He's running again because he lost and that psychologically eats him up (regardless of how much he tries to self rationalize). In other words he's a pathological "sore loser".

... Also all his legal jeopardy. If he wins all his legal problems go away. If he doesn't he might go to jail (he probably won't... I'm fairly certain the U.S. will never jail a former President if they can at all avoid it but it's still a remote possibility).

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I have this theory about Trump... what it basically boils down to is that his entire self-image is wrapped up in the concept of him being a "winner". If Donald Trump isn't a "winner" in his own mind then he would enter into a existential identity crisis, hence why he sows the seeds of malfeasance... in his mind if he loses it has to be a result of cheating or trickery (because then in his mind he can rationalize it so that he didn't really lose). He's running again because he lost and that psychologically eats him up (regardless of how much he tries to self rationalize). In other words he's a pathological "sore loser".

... Also all his legal jeopardy. If he wins all his legal problems go away. If he doesn't he might go to jail (he probably won't... I'm fairly certain the U.S. will never jail a former President if they can at all avoid it but it's still a remote possibility).

Trump knows how much his side cheats, so when the other side wins, he assumes that they must have cheated even more.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by activeStick

It does cut both ways though. Both parties have been talking about how if the other side wins, democracy will end as we know it. The Democrats are saying that Trump will give himself ultimate power, etc. and the Republicans are saying that the Democrats would shut down free speech platforms like Twitter if things don't align with their narrative.

My point is that we have from Selzer's poll that the 'state of democracy' as a top priority correlates to high anti-Trump sentiment. The priority responses in Selzer's poll makes no internal sense unless the large majority of the people identifying that as a priority are voting against Harris.

[Paulie Walnuts]

CNN Saying their exit poll says 80% of people decided on their vote before September. That bodes well for Harris.

#### you Donald.

[Jason14h]

Don’t underestimate the amount of people voting for Trump who think it is a vote for democracy

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853936019579527276

[devo22]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853939074060755377

[direwolf]

If I’m headed to a voting booth in the U.S. right now, I’d definitely welcome a heavy presence of law enforcement. Who knows what kind of MAGA lunatics are showing up to bully people at these voting stations.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Guy's its over. Laura Ingrahm said record turnout in Alabama. We lost Alabama.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by direwolf

If I’m headed to a voting booth in the U.S. right now, I’d definitely welcome a heavy presence of law enforcement. Who knows what kind of MAGA lunatics are showing up to bully people at these voting stations.

SpidermanPointingMeme.jpg

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853936234286203346

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Don’t underestimate the amount of people voting for Trump who think it is a vote for democracy

That's how I am interpreting that concern for "democracy" too. Too many people actually believe that the election was stolen. A vote for Trump is a vote for the truth and for democracy, in their warped version of reality.

Anyways I think Pennsylvania goes Trump and I turn off the news for 4 years.

I am fortunate that as a white man I get to exist between leadership cycles where my world is largely unaffected by racist intolerant #######s being elected.The only thing (EDIT: Sorry not the only thing but one of the many) that eats at me is the lack of hope that exists within our political landscape that goes hand in hand with the ubiquitousness of grievance politics and the "everything is broken" rhetoric consistently being thrown around. Being angry, and being told why you're angry by a group of ####### billionaires who don't give two flying ####s about you, but for the many who lap that up as if they will somehow by osmosis become a billionaire too if they trumpet the same hateful angry BS, are just going to continue to be useful idiots to these ego maniacs.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Don’t underestimate the amount of people voting for Trump who think it is a vote for democracy are dumb as ####

We don't ever underestimate this.

[Paulie Walnuts]

LMAO Skip Bayless Twitter got hacked after his Trump endorsement.

They went into is DM"S and see that he is ordering hookers.