CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Yeah I saw later that you said you thought she was a host, but the posts I quoted stood out to me since there was a lot of words without saying much. If you are a host it's a great way to post, except Girly called you on it and then you had to answer her.

It was me being unsure at the beginning of the game, with not much to go on. I flipped and flopped multiple times. As I said, if I wanted to hide at that point, I'd have stayed with my vote and shut my mouth.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

So I get accused of wanting to narrow down the voting to two, but no credit for getting the votes scattered. Look at the votes before I made my Thursday post and all the movement that happened afterwards. That started because of me. If I don't post and start that, it doesn't happen. It was dead in here for two days because no one was posting. I changed that and scattered the votes.

Here's the first posts after awhile of none:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Another day of no activity, this deadline can't come soon enough.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Devo says he's willing to hammer after starseed's death post. Starseed posts it but then Pux pulls her vote off. Any chance we get a hammer or are we going to have to wait until the deadline? Pux talked about putting heat on after she does the opposite. If everyone's content to wait this out should we just check in Sunday night when Day 6 starts?

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I really really didn't like Starseed's 'mistake' about the spore. I also don't like that Hockeyguy15 seems to have been a lot more lenient on the 'mistakes' of Lego Man/Starseed than he has with, for example, dissentowner. I believe that if Starseed is scum that Hockeyguy15 deserves a very hard look.

However, there was also a literal tie last round. We know there's a Turned who's at least been communicated with once, with the possibility of a second Turned and possibly multiple communications between the Host and Turned. So if Starseed was a Host, would there not be a bigger push to save him?

Timbo, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Starseed, SebC, GGG and Bizaro86 all voted to save Starseed/kill Mrkajz44 last time. Right now only Hockeyguy15 and GGG are sticking too their guns and that concerns me.

Your first post is actually to try and get Starseed hammered. I was the one against it. You were able to unvote Starseed, I wasn't because I wasn't voting for him. Party Elephant quoted my post with his vote change so I don't know if it was entirely you. And even then, we don't know if he is town or not so either of us could have made a big mistake yesterday.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

The aim was to scatter the votes to make it tougher for hosts to hide and to see who was able to convince other to vote for their chosen candidate. The end result was definitely the work of you.

This is where I think you're baking your cake and eating it to. You open up the possibility, but pass the end result blame to others. If scum gets lynched, you get to claim your unvote opened the door. If town gets lynched, well it was all part of your plan.

It's the same way you tried to get the Government Agent to check me but even before the night started you were posting ways in which I was a host so that you had an excuse as to why I didn't die.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You and starseed (who was almost lynched) started voting for devo. This got Pux and GGG on the train. The wheels were in motion and you directed the vote to lynching another townie. Not only is devo's blood on your hands, you were the one that stabbed him with the knife (metaphorically). The vote scatter lead to you organizing devo's lynch, and yet I become the top suspect. Somehow I'm getting used to this.

It was. Devo22's entirely my fault, it didn't end up well but I felt more comfortable lynching him over either Starseed or Mrkajz44. It could end up a huge mistake. Ideally, I would have liked to see you get lynched yesterday though.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

What was the purpose of this unvote before the deadline. It added in risk of a no lynch and unless you were moving to mrK there was no chance of your vote helping lynch someone else.

So your move could only have hurt the town

Devo's post where he unvoted convinced me he was town. I was pissed off because I thought it was poor sportsmanship from a butthurt townie. Then I was trying to figure out an "or a host who" part to end my post. I couldn't think of any scenario where a host would do that, so I unvoted and went back to my top scum choice. Since Devo was town, I would suggest not lynching him was the better choice. Also, my kid was sleeping so I checked in before deadline.

[dissentowner]

Something seriously stinks here. When I left for work, Devo was not even in the picture for being lynched. I have to go back in to work soon but when I get home this evening I will be doing some serious post reading.

[GGG]

How does squiggs flailing here compare to last game. He certainly is more responsive to questions than last time but i attribute that to learning from past mistakes. This time i think he's being more logical then last time.

I will reread the other game tonight and see.

[starseed]

I was a little shaky until oling's post reminded me about the pux discrediting plays. That has solidified my vote.

[starseed]

Plus, post-game, I would be interested to know if the 'mrkaj is Townie' thing was actually a mistake due to him starting the post before the Lynch.

[mrkajz44]

I've gone back and re-read some of Squiggs "errors" in his posts that have been pointed out by a few people.

1) Leaving Seb of the "confirmed town" list when talking about who the GA should target - on its own, it could be read as Squiggs really thought Oling was the best person to target and maybe got lost in his own argument. It can been seen in a very different light though, when you read on the assumption Squiggs knows that Seb turned

2) Claiming that he was responsible for Starseed not getting lynched - personally, the unvote by Pux was what started it in my eyes. Given her status I think a lot of people probably took that vote with a little more weight than others. Also, why is taking credit for this a good thing? We ended up lynching a townie anyway, and no one knows Starseed's alignment...except hosts of course.

3) His list of possibilities - he did pick out a few "rare" scenarios and avoided more obvious ones. Again, taken on its own it could be seen as not being a huge deal as with each passing day the number of possibilities greatly increase. However, another reasonable explanation is he had more information than us to start with and some options were already "crossed off"

4) When ECF flipped town, he put my name in ECF's "place" in the post - as I recall, it was a pretty big post, and typos can happen for sure, but scum would know everyone who is town and who is not, so maybe it was more than just a typo

Each one of those events are not huge red flags, but when added together they take on a bit of a different meaning. In all four cases, it almost seems like Squiggs knows a bit more than we do. When that happens four times, I don't think they are just innocent mistakes anymore; he does actually have more knowledge than the rest of us.

Vote: squiggs96

[squiggs96]

My biggest regret in this game was unvoting mrkajz on Day4. At the time I really did believe his "death post". This has hurt in a few ways. First, we didn't get a lynch that night. I now have a feeling my unvote was way more wrong than I thought, but hopefully some good can come of it (see below). Secondly, it is now looking that I will be lynched, possibly as early as tonight (real time). This hurts me personally, as I'd like to continue playing, and it will also hurt the town, as once I flip vanilla the town will be down in numbers. If I get lynched there will be 11 players left. 3 are hosts. There should be at least one turned, and possibly two. If there are two, then the town will have 6 members left vs. 5 opponents (hosts and turned). If the town doesn't lynch properly on Day 6 they will lose (assuming I'm lynched today, there are currently 2 turned, and no further passengers are turned). If there is only one turned right now then it would start tomorrow 7-4.

The good that might come of me unvoting mrk is that I think I see a connection between him and Oling. I had a lot of thoughts that mrk was a host in earlier days. If I hadn't read his death post, I wouldn't have unvoted. My comment that devo could have hammered starseed and instead gets lynched himself was probably ironic, and they are likely laughing about it in the host thread. If I didn't unvote mrk, then he'd have been lynched. Instead, he's joining in on what looks like my lynch, by using Oling's methodology and latching onto his theories. If he is a host, then I've wrecked my game and the town's game as well. For that I apologize.

Oling is doing the exact same thing he did last game to me. It worked then, and so far it is working now. He will badger you with the same questions, ignore your answers, and then act all innocent on why he wants them answered. It's his style, and it's been successful.It's also working again right now. He drove the train to the lynch of devo (a dead townie). He is driving the train to my lynch right now. This will be two dead townies he is directly responsible for. He was mysteriously absent on the starseed/mrkajz tie. He said he couldn't predict what transpired, which is completely true, but he could have been following along. It would be a great move by a host to keep that tie. He was in on the vote to lynch ECF (a dead townie). He also was directly responsible for the lynch of Girly (ANOTHER dead townie). He said he gave her the spore and drove the train to her lynching. He did jump off that train right at the end to try and absolve himself of the blame. And finally, we was in on the activeStick lynch.

Assuming I am lynched today Oling has voted to lynch the following town members: activeStick, ECF, devo & squiggs. He was also directly responsible for how the vote went against Girly. He was a significant influencer for the lynching of devo and me. The only day that ended without a townie being lynched he was absent from the vote and we had a tie.

If I do get lynched, please go after him. Last game there were about four of us who on the way to being lynched continued to state how we thought Oling was scum. We tried voting for him before. We were unable to garner the votes when we were alive, and no one believed our death posts until it was too late and the town had lost the numbers game. Don't let this happen again. I urge you to vote with me today to lynch Oling. If you choose to lynch me, when I flip vanilla, you need to go after him. Don't get sucked into his web. Stay firm and power through. Don't fall for his bullying and manipulation. Vote for him, as he has been responsible (most of them directly) for every single lynching in this game, all of them which left us with more dead townies. He's leading you on the path to lynch me, which will bring you one more dead townie. What's worse, is that if I'm lynched, it'll be another vanilla passenger. At least if the town lynches someone who is turned it's a partial victory. The goal of the game for the town is to lynch the three hosts. I'm not one of the hosts. I'm not turned. I am just a fellow vanilla bean, about to be strung up by evil. If you are town and you are lynching me, you are hurting your chances at winning. You are hurting the rest of the town's chances at winning. If you listen to Oling here you are falling into his trap and the hosts will be victorious. I am urging you to stop this before it gets any worse. If I am lynched today the town could lose tomorrow. Don't let that happen.

I also feel that mrkajz is with Oling. They are my top two choices for hosts right now. If HG wants to vote for mrk, as he has done so numerous times, and tried to get the town to join him, then I'll switch to him. If not, I'll go down with my dying breath hoping the town either believes me now, or believes me once I am lynched.The right play is to lynch Oling today and then lynch mrkajz the next day. I'm not sure who I believe is the third host. There are too many suspects.

The people I trust the most right now are Peanut, Puxlut and HG. I hope they join my crusade now, but if they don't, I hope they fight it upon my lynch. I'm not quitting. I'm just getting my thoughts out there in case a quick lynch comes. I already have 5 votes on me, and it only takes 7 to hammer. Don't lay down fellow vanilla beans. Stand up and fight against the hosts, starting with Oling.

vote Oling_Roachinen

[Timbo]

Squiggs if you are lynched and flip town Oling will be my #1.
Until then I am willing to listen to other players and anything else you might have to say.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Oling is doing the exact same thing he did last game to me. It worked then, and so far it is working now. He will badger you with the same questions, ignore your answers, and then act all innocent on why he wants them answered.

Squiggs96, you've got to understand that these questions aren't coming from no where though. Had you put SebC on your list of people that the town thought were likely town, none of this happens. Leaving him off, given the reasoning you made for your list, is really unexplainable to me.

If I'm town, I'm going to jump on that because I don't like things that don't make sense to me. Mistakes happen, errors happen. I'm more than willing to change my perspective if I see a reason to but when you made such a blatant and weird mistake I really thought you were scum. I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt because I haven't been doing exactly great here, and I was really hoping for Puxlut to end up having the spore or something. I was hoping forcing the discussion would help me get a better read on you. But that wasn't the case and I wasn't turned, I didn't get the spore, and I believe an investigation was wasted one me that night.

I mean even if you had said that it was a mistake to leave off SebC from that list, given the criteria, I could have dropped it (Wouldn't have forgotten but could have dropped it). But instead, I feel, like you've been trying to focus the attention on who was asking the question than the actual question. Like I've said, there was 2 confirmed townies that day (SebC and Puxlut) and you left one of them off your list. You may not have felt that SebC was a townie, but you knew the rest of the town did and that was your argument for putting me on the list originally and you've never attempted to answer why you didn't think SebC was so much lower on the confirmed town list than I was.

The biggest thing I would agree with you on in that post is that mrkajz44 does seem to have a connection to me now. I realize SebC dieing changes the game quite a bit, but all of my arguments have been ad nauseam for the last several days. I'm certainly suspicious of people coming up and now agreeing with what I had been saying all along. Timbo's right, if Squiggs96 shows town I'm doomed. I'm going to provide a good shield for people who agree with me. That post by mrkajz44, which so eloquently shows what I've been saying for days, almost seems too perfect.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Best case scenario:
Spore:
Night 0 - Oling_Roachinen
Night 1 - GirlySports
Night 2 - No one
Night 3 - SebC
Night 4 - Someone
Night 5 - Someone Else

Someone was Host and Someone Else didn't turn leaving us with:

12 People left

3 Host
0 Turned

Worst case scenario:
Spore:
Night 0 - Oling_Roachinen
Night 1 - GirlySports
Night 2 - No one
Night 3 - SebC
Night 4 - Someone
Night 5 - Someone Else

12 People left

3 Host
2 Turned (Someone and Someone Else Turned).

If Someone Else passes spore to townie that could mean 6 turned out of 11 tomorrow.

We're potentially in a lynch or lose scenario right now.

If Squiggs96 was right with his scenario that SebC was killed by host:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If he was killed by the host to place blame on me, then it's unlucky for me and the town.

It was an absolute great move.

We lynch Squiggs96 today and he shows town, if they don't win tonight, I get lynched tomorrow and they get another shot at winning.

I think we're close to the end here. I'm proposing that if the Government Agent didn't check SebC last night, they reveal so we can know that the Host killed SebC to try and frame Squiggs96.

If the Government Agent did check SebC, no point in revealing.

I know how asking the Government Agent to reveal, even conditionally, looks sketchy but I think this is a discussion worth having now that we're in a potentially lynch or lose scenario.

[starseed]

Peanut has yet to check in. We should avoid dropping hammer until peanut can weigh in.

Unvote

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm still up for a Mrkajz lynch, I haven't decided what I think about Squiggs yet. Squiggs has some post where he seems to be playing both sides, and the whole leaving Seb off his town list with Seb flipping turned. I'm just trying to figure out if that is just too convenient, since it seems like a huge error for a host to make.

[GGG]

Night 0 Oling
Night 1 girly
Night 2 no one
Night 3 SebC
Night 4 Devo
Night 5 kill SebC to get spore back as agent was killing Seb anyway -> someone else

I think this as more likely than
Night 4 Seb getting it, then killing a turned to frame Squiggs. The only way this makes sense is if Starseed and Mrkajz are hosts because otherwise you go for the mislynch on Starseed or mrkajz and force the agent to take down Seb.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

[...]The biggest thing I would agree with you on in that post is that mrkajz44 does seem to have a connection to me now. I realize SebC dieing changes the game quite a bit, but all of my arguments have been ad nauseam for the last several days. I'm certainly suspicious of people coming up and now agreeing with what I had been saying all along. Timbo's right, if Squiggs96 shows town I'm doomed. I'm going to provide a good shield for people who agree with me. That post by mrkajz44, which so eloquently shows what I've been saying for days, almost seems too perfect.

Not sure if this is a compliment? Haha

Here's how my post "came to be" if the thought is I just waited for Oling to stick his neck out and I jumped on board:

I remember originally reading Oling's spat with Squiggs and thinking, "meh, it's not a huge deal - why do they continue to go back and forth on this?" But when Seb flips as turned and I went back to re-read, it suddenly stuck out much more. Starseed then mentioned about Squiggs slip between me and ECF and I started to wonder how many other times there were 'slips' that could have happened if you had extra information. I picked out four without too much trouble and concluded that Squiggs knows more than the rest of us, and has been "leaking" these mistakes over the course of the game. For me, its not just the Seb thing, its all of the other ones (including the Seb one) in combination that I listed in my post.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by starseed

Peanut has yet to check in. We should avoid dropping hammer until peanut can weigh in.

Unvote

Peanut has been on and thanked some posts but hasn't posted.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Night 0 Oling
Night 1 girly
Night 2 no one
Night 3 SebC
Night 4 Devo
Night 5 kill SebC to get spore back as agent was killing Seb anyway -> someone else

I think this as more likely than
Night 4 Seb getting it, then killing a turned to frame Squiggs. The only way this makes sense is if Starseed and Mrkajz are hosts because otherwise you go for the mislynch on Starseed or mrkajz and force the agent to take down Seb.

Interesting, why Night 4 Devo?

[dissentowner]

What goes against the squiggs theory is he refused to vote for ECF after his death post. Something makes me think squiggs is being set up by the scum here. I am not sure what to think of Oling at this point but I think this is the safest bet for the town as everytime he seems to be on the verge of being lynched there is a massive swing.

Vote:Mrkajz44

[GGG]

Start with the night 3 pass, this presumes oling isn't host.

Night 3 SebC
Night 4 someone turned.
Night 5 Spore goes somewhere

In this case I see no reason that the captain kills Seb

Night 3 SebC
Night 4 no one turned
Night 5 Passenger sends spore somewhere and reports

In this case even if the spore is recalled the passenger would know they had the spore as the recall occurs in the night phase and scum can pass it the same phase. I confirmed this through Maz. So we would find out if this is the case.

Night 3 someone else
Night 4 Seb C
Night 5 Someone else - I don't think here is a good case to sacrifice Seb to get the spore back as Seb will send it somewhere useful via msg.

Night 3 SebC
Night 4 devo22
Night 5 recall spore and send it out.

This is the only case where recalling the spore makes sense.

So does it make sense for the agent to reveal themself if the end result is lynch squigs?

As for framing this does not make sense. They are sitting at

12 with 4 turned and a chance at a mislynch is better than 11 with 3. This idea of framing does not make sense.