CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Peanut]

I feel like today is just a repeat of yesterday in terms of everyone's suspicions and votes. I know I don't have too much to talk about, there's not a lot of new evidence or new ideas to kick around. i'm still comfortable with my Starseed vote at this point.

[Timbo]

Right now the way I see it that we have little choice but to either hammer starseed or deadline lynch.
Or we risk another no lynch since so many players elect not to postulate theories and or post.
I just can't see a swing unless compelling evidence comes suddenly to light.

[starseed]

Working on my final thoughts now. I am one vote away from lynch, so please hold off at least until I have had time to respond to responses tomorrow. Let the town's wrath fall upon the ninja lyncher!

[Timbo]

starseed do you have any more thoughts on the game?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by starseed

Working on my final thoughts now. I am one vote away from lynch, so please hold off at least until I have had time to respond to responses tomorrow. Let the town's wrath fall upon the ninja lyncher!

Then ignore my last post.

[starseed]

OK, so I am going to do a lego-style summary post. These are not my complete thoughts on the whole thread (I did not have time to read everything), but this is as much sleep as I am willing to lose today.


I included thoughts from looking at vote patterns on my spreadsheet and compared it to the notes I had from last game. I noticed that posters who targeted multiple people by mid game were much less likely to be scum. The top 9 had 1 scum, the bottom 7 had 3 scum. 'Wide Focus Four' means one of the four posters who have targeted many other posters. ‘Narrow focus five’ are one of the five posters who targeted the least amount of players (I am one of the five).


As mentioned before, all scum had targeted known townies by mid game at a rate of 50% or worse. ‘Bad Aim Seven’ are the ones who were in that group this time around.


bizaro86


‘Wide focus four’. He made that post that recommended the best strategy going forward from the Oling to Girly spore transfer. See Lego’s post.
If mrkajz is scum: biz touted his suspicions for mrkaj, but did not vote until 10:03 to lynch him. Mind you, he probably would just stay down unless he knew Oling would not vote.


devo22

‘Bad Aim Seven’. Pulled a CPM2 scum starseed play in latching onto the known townie for direction. Minor scum tell in lamenting the town’s woes.



dissentowner

‘Wide focus four’ Focused on only a few posters at this point last game, but has had one of the wider bands of focus in this game. Change of strategy, but it could be learning from last game. He did pull back from the HG campaign once realizing his shortsightedness. Initially, I thought he was behaving very scummy, but I got the exact same feelings about him in previous games where he was town.


GGG

‘Wide focus four’. Last game, GGG voted for the most unique posters and was town. He also has a similar really good batting average in avoiding voting for known townies. Good scum hunting vibes.

Hockeyguy15

Much wider focus and better aim than last game when he was scum. Hard to determine, but leaning town. Has had good scum hunting posts in the game thus far.



mrkajz44

‘Narrow focus five’. Voted for second place vote getters early on, potentially so as to create a defensible voting record. Saved from lynch a couple of times. If he flips scum, PE should be right behind him.


Oling_Roachinen

‘Wide focus four’. Put focus of attention on himself by announcing transfer of spore.
‘Bad Aim Seven’ Voted for all known townies.



Party Elephant

‘Bad Aim Seven’. When mrkaj was near lynch, PE switched votes from a third player to ECF to help save mrkaj. When pressed, he is quick to attack in CPM3 Oling scum fashion, where he would pick on something else to mask the fact that it is a move that saved mrkaj. Theory brought forward by Lego where he pointed out that he could have been setting up HG before girly flipped town. See my post here:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1534

Behaved noobish in the beginning, and is now playing a very good scum like game.
Minor scum tell in lamenting the town’s woes.



Peanut

‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. As an outsider, she was on my short list. No surprise that she has immediately been on me from the start with no solid reasoning. Excellent work standing in the background. Many posts with no real content in them, although a few good ones.

Also, I feel like this is a play to help get bizaro to see Peanut as a friendly poster, and thus get his support in the future?

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpost.php?p=5329782

Also, looks like she is not voting for me because of me, but because of legoman, who had some of the most useful/thoughtful posts of the game, even though they were few in number.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1673



SebC

Switched focus away from AS after his mini-reveal.
‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. Play style that may not be helpful to the town as it cuts down on pressure on scum. Not good strategy for scum hunting.

Squiggs96

Same ratios of hitting known townies as when he was a townie last game, and had a middling band of focus, just as last game when he was a townie.

‘Bad Aim Seven’. Defended leading vote getters, including when mrkaj was close to lynch. If mrkaj ends up town, squiggs would be suspicious for trying to build up credibility in this way. Also squiggs seemed to target mrkaj as a potential target should ECF come up town, which he did:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1241

Others reasoning surrounding SebC ignore in townie list – was it addressed by squiggs?

Squiggs echoed Pux’s support for a peanut lynch, so I am not sure squiggs and peanut are connected.


Reasons I outlined here: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1623

Timbo

‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. Aim is worse, and has a more narrow focus than last game as a townie. Set up early that he had doubts about the ECF lynch. I think this is more of a scum manoeuvre than anything else. Pulled a CPM2 scum starseed play in latching onto the known townie for direction. Constant little quick questions, which is something I did as a scum player, but I don’t think it’s a strong scum tell. Might even be good town strategy.





Some posters seem to be distancing themselves while working together, and some are legitimately distanced from others. I think the best strategy is for me to vote for my #1 or #2 choice before looking at the connections based on the flip. I think I have 6 players that I think are scum, and clearly they all cannot be.


My top two choices to get a host flip are: Party Elephant and squiggs96. Both flips would get us solid information.


Unvote
Vote: Party Elephant

Unvote
Now that is a Starseed post that I wanted.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

Squiggs96

Same ratios of hitting known townies as when he was a townie last game, and had a middling band of focus, just as last game when he was a townie.

It's not surprising my ratio is the same as last game, since I am in the same situation.

Originally Posted by starseed

‘Bad Aim Seven’. Defended leading vote getters, including when mrkaj was close to lynch. If mrkaj ends up town, squiggs would be suspicious for trying to build up credibility in this way. Also squiggs seemed to target mrkaj as a potential target should ECF come up town, which he did:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1241

I think you are running a few things into each other here. I defended ECF when him and mrkajz were close in votes. I gave reasons why I thought ECF was town and voted to lynch mrkajz:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I am going to stick up for ECF. I just went back and read every post of his in Smash. He's posting the exact same way he did there. He even had Girly and Oling picked as scum and formulate picked as suspicious, but couldn't get the votes going. He stuck up for me there and was quick to stick up for me here. He had some good theories in Smash and I think he might have some here too. I agree with much of his death post, and don't see how it helps the hosts if he flips host. He has named me as the person he trusts most as town. If he flips host then I can see everyone going after me because of this. I also agree with almost all of his death post, so I'm putting myself out there should he flip host. All that said, I believe he's town.

If anyone wants to vote Lego or Peanut I'd prefer to lynch one of those two.

I am not ready to go with his bizarro route, but I will vote to stop the ECF lynch.

unvote

vote mrkajz44

In that case ECF came up town, as I thought he would. I then participated in the charge to vote out mrkajz the next day. Once he posted his 'death post', I believed it and switched to voting you, starseed. I didn't stick up for mrkajz. I just felt he was town and then I voted for you. I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

Originally Posted by starseed

Squiggs echoed Pux’s support for a peanut lynch, so I am not sure squiggs and peanut are connected.

The only way Peanut and I are connected is if she is town. I don't know if she is or not, but I am leaning towards her being town. I hope we are connected.

[Timbo]

starseed in one post you have posted more content than SebC and Peanut combined. Thank you

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

That tie was a serious waste of our game. I haven't really seen any substantial new "evidence" brought forward. At least if we had lynched someone we would have had a card flip to go off.
I'm still disappointed with starseed's lack of input. And right about now, as I look at the list of the names, everyone is suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Unvote
Now that is a Starseed post that I wanted.

So you felt the tie was a waste of time, after you unvoted on Day 4, and now you unvote a second time on Day 5. I'm not sure what you are trying to get at. If you want a lynch, then vote for someone. If you want one of the people who are not leading to be lynched, vote for them and give reasons. Starseed gave thoughts about all. I don't agree with him on everything, but at least he was posting his theories. It's tough when you just unvote without reasons or don't state where your vote is going next.

My biggest reservation on voting starseed is that when I wanted to vote Lego I got no traction. When he was switched out, that's when there was support. I don't think it's a great reason for others to jump on that train.

My biggest reservation on voting mrkajz is that I believe his death post. I felt strongly that the votes moved off of him to ECF were the work of the hosts, even though he was saying he felt the votes moving to him were the work of the hosts. That said, I really believe his death post. If that makes me gullible, then I'll accept that.

I'm still happy to lynch either one, and will keep my vote on starseed at this point.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I still looks like you're ignoring why SebC wasn't on your 'town list' though Squiggs96. Based on how I read, and I would say several others (including you), Mazrim's post it was a very good chance that SebC was nearly confirmed town.

If you're town you should want to have an open discussion, even if you think you've addressed it, there's 0 harm in reiterating it. So why didn't you include SebC as an option for the spore due to having town cred?

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

As mentioned before, all scum had targeted known townies by mid game at a rate of 50% or worse. ‘Bad Aim Seven’ are the ones who were in that group this time around.

I'm just going to remind everyone that your list of "known townies" conveniently includes yourself which skews the stats quite a bit.

Originally Posted by starseed

There are 4 known townies to me now, outside of Puxlut, whom nobody has cast a vote for. Myself, AS, girly, and ecf.

If you're going to make the argument that the votes should follow the same statistical pattern as the previous game (which is pretty dubious, since this game has a different format) can you at least make your stats objectively? Including yourself as known town, which even if you are, does nothing to help the rest of us when it can't be verified.

Oh, and wanna talk about scum tells?

Originally Posted by starseed

PE was also squirming under pressure the way I would squirm as a mafia player (a million words per post).

Not quite a million, but your mega post clocked in at 1023 words.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

Im giving up until tomorrow night. It is past midnight and the deadline isnt until friday. I am running in circles, but I am building a notes list. Also here is a quick observation from my sheet:

In creating my spreadsheet from the skeleton of the spreadsheet from last game, I noticed that around the mid point of the game, no scum player had targeted (with a vote) the townies known to me at the time, at a rate of less than 50%. After filling in the votes/unvotes, I looked at who targeted whom. There are 4 known townies to me now, outside of Puxlut, whom nobody has cast a vote for. Myself, AS, girly, and ecf.

Oling has been the only one to target all four with a vote, however he was also one of only two players to target more than 7 players with a vote. Outside of Activestick and Girly who only voted for 1 and 2 separate people respectively, 7 players have voted for a known townie at a rate of half or more. They are:

Devo22 (3 for 5)
Oling (4 for 8)
PE (3 for 5)
Peanut (3 for 4)
SebC (2 for 4)
Squiggs (3 for 5)
Timbo (2 for 4)

Again, last game had 100% of the scum on a list like that, but different players have different strategies, so who knows. I have a very strong feeling that a couple of the hosts are in there.

Ok guys I decided rather than just point out how flawed starseed's analysis is (it's pretty damned flawed) I decided to do my own stat tracking with the same idea. I analysed every vote cast in rounds 1-3 by players still currently alive and counted how many times each of us voted for a confirmed town. I did not do any analysis of rounds 4 and 5 because there are no confirmed town in play for those rounds. I also isolated everyone's final vote for each so there's a set of numbers with possible "noise votes" filtered out.

I did not include myself as confirmed town because I can't prove that to anyone. Starseed on the other hand is listing himself as town, and using all the votes against him in rounds 4 and 5 to horribly skew the data that he half heartedly presents in the post I quoted in his favour. Anyways, here is a breakdown of everyone's votes for confirmed townies in rounds 1-3 with their total votes followed by their final votes.


devo22 - 3/4 total, 3/3 final

Timbo - 2/5 total, 2/3 final

bizarro86 - 3/5 total, 3/3 final

squiggs96 - 2/5 total, 2/3 final

Puxlut - 1/5 total, 0/3 final

GGG - 2/10 total, 2/3 final

Peanut - 3/4 total, 3/3 final

Party Elephant - 2/5 total, 2/3 final

SebC - 2/2 total, 2/2 final

Lego Man/starseed - 2/5 total, 2/3 final * note, since it's only rounds 1-3 these votes were all cast before lego man was replaced

mrkajz44 - 1/4 total, 1/3 final

Hockeyguy15 - 2/5 total, 2/3 final

Oling_Roachinen - 3/7 total, 2/3 final

dissentowner - 1/5 total, 1/3 final


There's not a ton to take away from this, but it will become more useful on our next cardflip as it will add two rounds worth of votes to the data pool. Some interesting things I've noticed though:

-devo, bizarro, peanut, and seb's final votes were 100% for confirmed townies. These 4 posters are also the only 4 that have a confirmed town vote rate greater than 50% of their total votes

-seb was the only person to cast 100% of his votes on confirmed town

-11 posters have more than 50% of their final votes on confirmed town (makes sense as every lynch was on confirmed town)

-Timbo, squiggs, me, Lego Man, and hockeyguy all have the exact same vote rates, both in final and total votes.

This last point kind of makes me laugh since three of them, myself included, are on starseed's statistically proven scum list, yet he has the exact same town vote rate as all of us.

[Hockeyguy15]

I'll be keeping my vote on mrkajz.

[mrkajz44]

Starseed, just a couple of questions.

1) I noticed you left Pux off that list you made. Is this because of the anomaly claim and you have her as confirmed town for now? Just curious because you still had Seb on that list and I'd say he is just as likely as town for at least most of the time period analyzed (I say "at least most of the time" as the spore appears lost right now)

2) As I understand your post, "bad aim seven" and "narrow focus five" are two of your scum tells, correct? You have Peanut, Seb, and Timbo with both those labels, yet you have Squiggs and Party as your top candidates. Do you put more stock into the bad aim and you think Squiggs and Party are the ones with the "worst aim"?

[starseed]

No time to respond to posts yet, but I was thinking about the wide focus four, and how I would chance that they are much less likely to be hosts. As a host, you would be looking to stay on posters good sides by not going after them. Passengers should be more interested in putting the heat on as many people as they feel is necessary.

Or put heat on people that have completely slid under the radar. It's easy to slide by when you're always saying "yes! I agree!" and just going along with the votes.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Or put heat on people that have completely slid under the radar. It's easy to slide by when you're always saying "yes! I agree!" and just going along with the votes.

Pux, who are you talking about in this instance?

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

It takes 8 votes to hammer, 5 to deadline lynch

Hasn't Voted (2): devo22, Puxlut

starseed (6): Party Elephant, Peanut, mrkajz44, squiggs96, dissentowner, Timbo
mrkajz44 (2): Hockeyguy15, GGG
Party Elephant (2): bizaro86, starseed
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen
squiggs96 (1): SebC




The deadline is Friday, June 19th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Hockeyguy15]

Another day of no activity, this deadline can't come soon enough.