Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
Whatever this lol-worthy nonsense was:
But that aside, I don’t think the stats do a good job of telling the whole story either, not any better or worse than actual production (especially not if you’re going to go through the effort of “running the numbers” in a few scenarios but don’t even set parameters like TOI or F vs D).
For the last 41 games out of players who played more than 9 games he was:
- 1st in GF% despite being 10th in xGF%
- 5th in GF/60
- 3rd in GA/60
There is a difference between what is expected to happen and what did happen. You might look at a player with a discrepancy one way or another and see something unsustainable, but that does not mean the production does or doesn’t exist any more than it would have otherwise.
If a player scores a lucky hat trick at the end of the day it’s a hat trick all the same as a skill one.
|
I set parameters just fine thanks. I did make a solid case that he had a great 8 games but was bad prior to it. Those 8 games padded his points, GF, and GA stats. He had a bad season before those 8 games.
Looking at your numbers, his high GF% was powered by his low GA/60. And you know who had an even better GF% during that time? Weegar and Pachal (with Miro not far behind). If those defensemen were on the ice for much of the same time Sharky was on the ice, it would make sense that Sharky would end up with a great GF%, wouldn't it? I'm not saying Sharky didn't contribute toward it, I'm just saying he had a lot of help from his defensemen.
And an important question must be asked... if Pachal had the best GF% on the team during the same time period you're spotlighting for Sharky, then are we ready to say Pachal is some great defenseman that we can expect great things from? Or do we say he had a great stretch of hockey, but it's not an indicator of the level of player he actually is? Same kind of question can be asked for guys like Mangiapane, Cheechoo, etc, who rode and unsustainably high shooting % for a while, then their production tumbled once the hot streak was over. I think this is also the case for Sharky. While I hope he proves me wrong, there is reason to believe he won't. Any time GF and GA stats look unusually amazing for a player, while their expected stats are waaaaaay lower, there's reason to believe the player is riding a stretch of good bounces and teammates setting them up for relatively easy goals. But the stretch will end at some point and the production will collapse.
Which brings us to this year. Is Sharky a great player being held back by his struggling teammates? Or has he simply fallen off the high shooting % gravy train? I think it's the latter.
