Tensions in the Middle East

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I understand that there is a LOT of displeasure with the ruling regime of Israel, but I don't think we need to let tribalism convince us that the nut cases running Iran deserve to have nukes.

I'm not saying they deserve to have nukes. I do think this whole "they want nukes so they can destroy the West and Israel" is Western propaganda. They want nukes because they're surrounded by countries who want to enact a regime change and nukes are their only deterrent.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Fair enough, i did add those words.

I don't know if there would be more civilian deaths in the region whether or not Iran had nukes. The region seems to be doing a pretty good job at bloodshed, proxy or not, on their own.

Looking at it from the Ayatollah's perspective. Your largest enemy in the region and world is sitting on about 200 nuclear warheads (undeclared, because of course, the NFT says no other countries should have the), backed the by the world's largest military and economic power.

You have two neighbours already invaded and deposed by the USA (one a former nemisis) with another regional power (Saudi's) preaching some of the worst forms of Islam possible - but they have oil to sell to the US and appear to be friends.

I can certainly see why Iran (in this regime or the next) want nuclear warheads). Its the same reason Israel wants them; Pakistan, india, china, you name them.

Don’t forget the recent history of the last 75 years where those nations have instituted coups to remove democratically elected leaders, fed significant funding and weapons to an invading country, and allowed chemical weapons to be used on the population during said invasion.

It’s insane to me that people see all of Israel’s actions as defending itself and deterrence, and refuse to believe that the same can’t be true on the other side.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm not saying they deserve to have nukes. I do think this whole "they want nukes so they can destroy the West and Israel" is Western propaganda. They want nukes because they're surrounded by countries who want to enact a regime change and nukes are their only deterrent.

On a personal level I don’t think any country should have nukes. On the other hand, I struggle to see why it makes sense that some countries with nukes get to decide which other countries can or can’t have nukes, when the deciding countries primary interest is ensuring they can do whatever they want without an effective deterrent.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Probably not a popular opinion, but the sooner we see a conflict where nuclear weapons are EXCHANGED, the sooner humanity can move forward in meaningful ways.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Nothing like a good ol' war to bring long term peace about. How many successes does Israel have with that strategy, anyway?

I’m no fan of the current situation, I have family and friends in bomb shelters. I am deeply concerned about Iran using a dirty bomb in desperation to change the tide of this war. I wish there could have been some sort of diplomacy reached many years ago. Whole thing is above my head and I don’t know what the right or wrong thing to do is. What country would just leave it to chance that their neighbour who has sworn to end them won’t use a nuke? Again, it’s a ####ed region and I really don’t know what is the right or wrong thing to do. Mossad has seemingly pulled another rabbit out of the hat similar to what happened with Hezb but is it enough to enact regime change or stop Iran from just building a nuke in the future? I again have no clue just like I have no idea how close they actually were to a bomb.

That being said Israel has seen war turn into peace with Egypt and Jordan. I guess we can nit pick this as Egypt and Israel were both able to reconcile after both sides were able to convince their populations that they won the war. 1967 for Israelis and 1973 for Egyptians. Jordan was different but after their 1967 defeat it lead to peace being under the table for 2 decades before a treaty was signed.

Israel does have a history of turning war into peace but yes I also do agree Bibi is no Rabin and the potential for this to lead to a very messy fall out is high. I am fully aware of Bibi’s ability to use war to stay in power and that’s not good for this conflict with Iran or finding a peaceful solution with the Palestinians.

Iran may also choose to strike American military bases if the US chooses to join and I don’t think anyone needs an explanation of the geopolitical mess that alone could create.

Again I have no clue where this is headed but I am sad for all the civilians involved. I went to school with many Persians/Iranians and I know almost all have family back in Iran. I even was friends with a Persian Jew who still had some cousins in Iran who are under strict surveillance by the regime. I know it must be an incredibly scary situation not being able to contact their family to check in. The videos coming out from Tehran looks like complete chaos is unfolding. I hope for their sake this can have a quick resolution. Just an overall very scary situation and it’s a bit surreal to see it all unfold like it has.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

Probably not a popular opinion, but the sooner we see a conflict where nuclear weapons are EXCHANGED, the sooner humanity can move forward in meaningful ways.

Global Warming canceled out by Nuclear Winter?

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Global Warming canceled out by Nuclear Winter?

Shattering of illusory fears and the destruction of maladapted cultural and institutional inertia.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Beninho

I’m no fan of the current situation, I have family and friends in bomb shelters. I am deeply concerned about Iran using a dirty bomb in desperation to change the tide of this war. I wish there could have been some sort of diplomacy reached many years ago. Whole thing is above my head and I don’t know what the right or wrong thing to do is. What country would just leave it to chance that their neighbour who has sworn to end them won’t use a nuke? Again, it’s a ####ed region and I really don’t know what is the right or wrong thing to do. Mossad has seemingly pulled another rabbit out of the hat similar to what happened with Hezb but is it enough to enact regime change or stop Iran from just building a nuke in the future? I again have no clue just like I have no idea how close they actually were to a bomb.

That being said Israel has seen war turn into peace with Egypt and Jordan. I guess we can nit pick this as Egypt and Israel were both able to reconcile after both sides were able to convince their populations that they won the war. 1967 for Israelis and 1973 for Egyptians. Jordan was different but after their 1967 defeat it lead to peace being under the table for 2 decades before a treaty was signed.

Israel does have a history of turning war into peace but yes I also do agree Bibi is no Rabin and the potential for this to lead to a very messy fall out is high. I am fully aware of Bibi’s ability to use war to stay in power and that’s not good for this conflict with Iran or finding a peaceful solution with the Palestinians.

Iran may also choose to strike American military bases if the US chooses to join and I don’t think anyone needs an explanation of the geopolitical mess that alone could create.

Again I have no clue where this is headed but I am sad for all the civilians involved. I went to school with many Persians/Iranians and I know almost all have family back in Iran. I even was friends with a Persian Jew who still had some cousins in Iran who are under strict surveillance by the regime. I know it must be an incredibly scary situation not being able to contact their family to check in. The videos coming out from Tehran looks like complete chaos is unfolding. I hope for their sake this can have a quick resolution. Just an overall very scary situation and it’s a bit surreal to see it all unfold like it has.

That's why I said "long term peace". All their actinos of war have eventually led to the creation of other groups that want to destroy them. Perhaps I should ask differently...if Israel succeeds in destroying the Iranian regime, how long will it be before another, perhaps worse enemy pops up in their place? The entire region is a game of whack a mole, and my suggestion is that strategy isn't successful, so why keep doing it over and over?

[ResAlien]

Perhaps I'm not great at reading the news but what exactly did Iran do to provoke the initial bombing campaign against it by Israel? Outside of "they might have some nukes" I don't see anything acute that would seem to have been a flashpoint to start a war. This feels like "Iraq had WMDs" all over again

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's why I said "long term peace". All their actinos of war have eventually led to the creation of other groups that want to destroy them. Perhaps I should ask differently...if Israel succeeds in destroying the Iranian regime, how long will it be before another, perhaps worse enemy pops up in their place? The entire region is a game of whack a mole, and my suggestion is that strategy isn't successful, so why keep doing it over and over?

Oh ok I see. Ya I mean I do not disagree that an even worse group could be created or the fall of the IRGC could see a country like Turkey fill their void as Israels #1 regional enemy. It’s such a #### show at this point and hurts my head trying to figure out what should or shouldn’t be done. It’s all very depressing

[Locke]

Well if the Middle East is that tense maybe we just need to carpet-bomb them with masseurs? Maybe some bartenders that make killer mojitos? Just lighten the mood a little.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Perhaps I'm not great at reading the news but what exactly did Iran do to provoke the initial bombing campaign against it by Israel? Outside of "they might have some nukes" I don't see anything acute that would seem to have been a flashpoint to start a war. This feels like "Iraq had WMDs" all over again

It was a “preemptive strike” so they were simply preempting any reason to start a war with Iran by starting a war with Iran. Just the kind of three dimensional thinking the world needs from one of its fiercest protectors of peace in the region.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Perhaps I'm not great at reading the news but what exactly did Iran do to provoke the initial bombing campaign against it by Israel? Outside of "they might have some nukes" I don't see anything acute that would seem to have been a flashpoint to start a war. This feels like "Iraq had WMDs" all over again

I think the other justification they use other than the nuke story is that Iran funds and supplies proxy groups that attack Isreal, like Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis, etc.

[greyshep]

The one thing I have been wondering about is if taking down Iran will have any positive knock on effects in regards to the Ukraine invasion by Russia. Pretty sure Iran has been a major supplier of drones and other arms to Russia in their attacks on Ukraine. It would be nice if that tap was turned off.

I imagine N. Korea and China would probably fill that void though.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It was a “preemptive strike” so they were simply preempting any reason to start a war with Iran by starting a war with Iran. Just the kind of three dimensional thinking the world needs from one of its fiercest protectors of peace in the region.

Under international law, it would be tough to justify this attack as "preemptive" and more so "preventative"

Preemptive strikes are legal under international law as a means of self defence. Preemptive strikes address an immediate and undeniable danger.

Preventative strikes are to "prevent" a potential future threat.

One is clearly more justifiable than the other. The Iraqi invasion was arguably a preventative war (if the claim of WMDs was correct); but so were most of Nazi Germany's invasions in WWII, like Norway and Denmark.

When you have the complete backing of the US, Russia is inept, and China doesnt seem to care, then no sense crying over international law

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

On a personal level I don’t think any country should have nukes. On the other hand, I struggle to see why it makes sense that some countries with nukes get to decide which other countries can or can’t have nukes, when the deciding countries primary interest is ensuring they can do whatever they want without an effective deterrent.

If Canada was truly threatened by the United States, it would make sense to build a nuclear deterrent; however, in doing so, it gives the US a right to attack us.

It's pretty backwards

There is definitely scholarly literature that notes international relations would be more peaceful if all countries maintained some type of nuclear arsenal as a deterrence.

[Beninho]

With rumours that the US is potentially entering the war I now am seeing rumours online that Iranian State Media released a statement saying something a long the lines that tonight will be a night to be remembered for generations. There is so much misinformation though so who knows. I am starting to get a bit nauseous about where this is all headed, this whole week I have had a massive pit in my stomach following the news. Probably a good idea for me to take a break from following this.

Edit: just as I type this Iran has now launched another wave of missiles. big wave happening right now

Edit: Seems like most were intercepted.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Israel and the US have forcibly decided. Allatollah staying in power seems untenable. If they somehow stay in power, i’m afraid what comes after.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Global Warming canceled out by Nuclear Winter?

Technology to the rescue!

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1935048445984665786