Mathew Tkachuk and other key RFA signing watch thread

[Lanny_McDonald]

I can't see Tkachuk doing anything that puts at risk his past season and leveraging that into a massive pay day. He either has the Flames back up the Brinks truck or he pushes to be a UFA next summer. The loss of Gaudreau would be a solid excuse for a drop off in production that is certain to come this season, but having a second or a third dropping him back to the 60-70 point player he is likely to be would be disastrous to his earning potential. Tkachuk will turn this past 100 point season into a maximum pay scenario with the Flames, or force his way to another one that will pay the freight.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I can't see Tkachuk doing anything that puts at risk his past season and leveraging that into a massive pay day. He either has the Flames back up the Brinks truck or he pushes to be a UFA next summer. The loss of Gaudreau would be a solid excuse for a drop off in production that is certain to come this season, but having a second or a third dropping him back to the 60-70 point player he is likely to be would be disastrous to his earning potential. Tkachuk will turn this past 100 point season into a maximum pay scenario with the Flames, or force his way to another one that will pay the freight.

The loss of Gaudreau would be a reason for a drop in production all right. But it’s not a very good argument for a fat contract that you are a big producer but only when you have an elite player on your line.

[JTech780]

I think that Tkachuk and Mangiapane believe that they can recreate the seasons they just had, that’s just how top athletes roll. They have to have that confidence and swagger, if they didn’t have that belief we probably wouldn’t want them here.

[transplant99]

I really do not understand where this constant under valuing/rating of MT comes from.

Since he came into the NHL he is 25th in the entire league in offensive production.

6th among LW's.

12th among ALL wingers.

Last year playing on his off wing, he was the #1 RW offensively in the whole league.

He only played 1 of those seasons with JG.

He is very sound defensively, is a rockstar along the boards and in puck battles, and is a complete doosh in the eyes of the opposition.

24 years old.

Yeah...you pay guys like that to stick around....if they want to.

[Ashasx]

I'm going to guess it's because of his lack of playoff production, which is what a lot of fans faulted Gaudreau for.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I really do not understand where this constant under valuing/rating of MT comes from.

Since he came into the NHL he is 25th in the entire league in offensive production.

6th among LW's.

12th among ALL wingers.

Last year playing on his off wing, he was the #1 RW offensively in the whole league.

He only played 1 of those seasons with JG.

He is very sound defensively, is a rockstar along the boards and in puck battles, and is a complete doosh in the eyes of the opposition.

24 years old.

Yeah...you pay guys like that to stick around....if they want to.

I'm happy paying him 6th place among LWs or 12 among all wingers. That's $9M for 6th LW (tied with Kaprizov, ahead of Forsberg and his brother). 12th among all wingers would put him a tad lower.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I really do not understand where this constant under valuing/rating of MT comes from.

Since he came into the NHL he is 25th in the entire league in offensive production.

6th among LW's.

12th among ALL wingers.

Last year playing on his off wing, he was the #1 RW offensively in the whole league.

He only played 1 of those seasons with JG.

He is very sound defensively, is a rockstar along the boards and in puck battles, and is a complete doosh in the eyes of the opposition.

24 years old.

Yeah...you pay guys like that to stick around....if they want to.

I've been critical of the player over the years. He's been immature and hasn't played well in the playoffs over his years here. Also he's not a good skater which means he's always going to be a complementary player. A very good complimentary player. One of the best in the league. I just find he's a very difficult player to put a value on because for all the things he does at an elite level there are shortcomings that are hard to overlook like the skating as I feel that's played a role in his poor playoffs. I just think he has issues keeping pace with higher intensity and tempo hockey. I hope they can sign him to a long term deal as he's now probably the closest player they have to elite and with no money being sunk into Gaudreau I think they can afford to probably overpay Tkachuk.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I really do not understand where this constant under valuing/rating of MT comes from.

Since he came into the NHL he is 25th in the entire league in offensive production.

6th among LW's.

12th among ALL wingers.

Last year playing on his off wing, he was the #1 RW offensively in the whole league.

He only played 1 of those seasons with JG.

He is very sound defensively, is a rockstar along the boards and in puck battles, and is a complete doosh in the eyes of the opposition.

24 years old.

Yeah...you pay guys like that to stick around....if they want to.

Yeah, I tend to agree, but I think most of the "underrating" comes in talking about his trade value, which as he gets closer to UFA and perhaps the inability (or perhaps desire) to sign an extension, reduces his trade value. I think everyone likes Tkachuk the player.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Gaudreau did us a favor. We do not have to mortgage the future any further than we have had already to get under cap by asking someone to take Lucic or Monahan's final year.

18.45 million cap left to spend.
Source: https://forum.calgarypuck.com/newrep...te=1&p=8369402

3 RFAs to sign + one defensemen (Stone presumably) to get to 22 player roster.

If Tkachuk signs for 9.45 long term (might take a bit more).

Leaves 5.5 for Mangi and 2.7 for Kyl and 0.8 for Stone (slight raise). Will that be enough?

If we stink this year minus Gaudreau. We can retool and have zero cap dead weight because both Monahan and Lucic will be UFAs next year. Could even take a contract or two next year for draft capital to meet the floor if we sell off assets.

[Owen15]

Hey smart folks,

Is it possible to sign MT to a one year QO and immediately extend him 8 years? Effectively create a 9 year deal?

[JTech780]

The deadline for Tkachuk and Mangiapane to sign their QO is July 22nd.
I am sure both players will file for arbitration as well on July17th.

So we could find out in a week if either player is going to end up on the trading block.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by Owen15

Hey smart folks,

Is it possible to sign MT to a one year QO and immediately extend him 8 years? Effectively create a 9 year deal?

Sounds like a job for Freeway!

[kipperiggy]

Originally Posted by Mephisto

I like this 5 years idea. What does that contract look like - minimum $9 million AAV because of the QO?

I’d sign that deal, with Brady at $8.2m and JG at $9.8m I would slot Matthew in the middle.

His year end interview was a lot more genuine than John’s, that’s for sure.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I can't see Tkachuk doing anything that puts at risk his past season and leveraging that into a massive pay day. He either has the Flames back up the Brinks truck or he pushes to be a UFA next summer. The loss of Gaudreau would be a solid excuse for a drop off in production that is certain to come this season, but having a second or a third dropping him back to the 60-70 point player he is likely to be would be disastrous to his earning potential. Tkachuk will turn this past 100 point season into a maximum pay scenario with the Flames, or force his way to another one that will pay the freight.

Tkachuk's most logical move would be to force a massive contract now, and then force a trade later.

Tkachuk likely has Calgary caught in a bad position now, after the Gaudreau fiasco, and he knows they are willing to offer $10.5 x 8 years to a star.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I've been critical of the player over the years. He's been immature and hasn't played well in the playoffs over his years here. Also he's not a good skater which means he's always going to be a complementary player. A very good complimentary player. One of the best in the league. I just find he's a very difficult player to put a value on because for all the things he does at an elite level there are shortcomings that are hard to overlook like the skating as I feel that's played a role in his poor playoffs. I just think he has issues keeping pace with higher intensity and tempo hockey. I hope they can sign him to a long term deal as he's now probably the closest player they have to elite and with no money being sunk into Gaudreau I think they can afford to probably overpay Tkachuk.

Tkachuk isn't fast, but I wouldn't say he's not a good skater.

Fast forward this clip to 2:40 - anyone who can use their edges like that to deke Sid knows enough to be dangerous. And this is 5 years ago - I assume he still trains with Dawn Braid, and she's done a great job with him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3utwqDYlA4 - Just a link, YT won't let it embed for some reason.


Matthew is Corey Perry - who was reliably a 30G player from age 25-30, before injuries and the weight of that 8-year contract (signed when he was 28) caught up with him a bit. And everybody seems to forget this, but Perry won the Hart and the Rocket in 2011.

And as much as Perry may not have been worth $8.25M, he obviously still had something to bring to the table, given he has 30 points over 72 (!!!) playoff games in the last three years.

Tampa had him on the ice in the last minute to try and tie the game. Tells you all you need to know.

That's Tkachuk's proper opposite number, to me, and I do agree with you, EE, we can afford to overpay a bit to keep him.

Originally Posted by blankall

Tkachuk's most logical move would be to force a massive contract now, and then force a trade later.

Tkachuk likely has Calgary caught in a bad position now, after the Gaudreau fiasco, and he knows they are willing to offer $10.5 x 8 years to a star.

This isn't basketball, and Matthew Tkachuk isn't some kingmaker of a talent.

If he signs a $9.76M deal, he can't just demand a trade and then stay home until he gets it. Someone else needs to have room for him.

If he signs, he's here for the long haul.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Gaudreau did us a favor. We do not have to mortgage the future any further than we have had already to get under cap by asking someone to take Lucic or Monahan's final year.

18.45 million cap left to spend.
Source: https://forum.calgarypuck.com/newrep...te=1&p=8369402

3 RFAs to sign + one defensemen (Stone presumably) to get to 22 player roster.

If Tkachuk signs for 9.45 long term (might take a bit more).

Leaves 5.5 for Mangi and 2.7 for Kyl and 0.8 for Stone (slight raise). Will that be enough?

If we stink this year minus Gaudreau. We can retool and have zero cap dead weight because both Monahan and Lucic will be UFAs next year. Could even take a contract or two next year for draft capital to meet the floor if we sell off assets.

Yes, being able to keep the assets we would have had to spend to move Lucic and Monahan is a silver lining of Gaudreau moving on. It makes a re-tool in 2023-24 easier.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Owen15

Hey smart folks,

Is it possible to sign MT to a one year QO and immediately extend him 8 years? Effectively create a 9 year deal?

No.

When a player signs a one-year contract, the soonest they can be extended in January 1.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Trade for assets that can plug and play, young with some cost control and contract control. Continue trying to compete.

That would be foolish.

[rhino]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Gaudreau did us a favor. We do not have to mortgage the future any further than we have had already to get under cap by asking someone to take Lucic or Monahan's final year.

18.45 million cap left to spend.
Source: https://forum.calgarypuck.com/newrep...te=1&p=8369402

3 RFAs to sign + one defensemen (Stone presumably) to get to 22 player roster.

If Tkachuk signs for 9.45 long term (might take a bit more).

Leaves 5.5 for Mangi and 2.7 for Kyl and 0.8 for Stone (slight raise). Will that be enough?

If we stink this year minus Gaudreau. We can retool and have zero cap dead weight because both Monahan and Lucic will be UFAs next year. Could even take a contract or two next year for draft capital to meet the floor if we sell off assets.

I believe Lucic is taking some time this summer to decide if he will retire or move on if the Flames can find a partner and the Flames are ok with this. There are a few teams needing to get to the cap floor and possible a couple are on his approved list of 10 teams

[Matata]

Id be shocked if Tkachuks initial ask is below $12M x 8 and hes going to sit at home until hes traded or the flames offer $11M+ x 8. Im pretty sure Tkachuk would rather die than sign a fair value contract.