"Frankenstorm" : Hurricane Sandy

[The Yen Man]

I'm not doubting the science, just curious as to what other methods they used to come up with their conclusions besides the obvious measuring of weather patterns.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Here's a question that I've asked before but have never gotten an answer for. And it's not a mocking question either.

In my limited statistics knowledge (taken 2 courses in university), I was taught that anything that's within 5% is considered random and not a trend. Humans have been tracking weather patterns for what, a few hundred years at best? The Earth has been around for what, 4.5 billion years? 5% of 4.5 billion is 225 million years. So we have to have tracked the weather pattern for 225 million years and noticed an uptick in temperature before we can say its a trend. How do we know the climate change we are currently experiencing isn't just some sort of random blip?

I think you're getting at a 5% difference being used to determine whether something is statistically significant? 5% is the probability that a difference is real vs. due to random variation, and has nothing to do with the time period. It's based on statistical tests which account for the magnitude of the observed change and the amount of variability in the measurements. Also, the number 5% is fairly arbitrary and not universal - it's about balancing the probabilities of false positives vs. false negatives. Based on the amount of variability in temperature, I think most climate experts say you usually need around 30 years (off the top of my head) to demonstrate a statistically significant trend, but even that would depend on the magnitude of the trend.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Remember how Flash Walken warned all of you about Tinordi baiting you guys into a Global Warming debate?

Well done, morons.

[Tinordi]

Talking about this disaster without talking about global warming is a bit vapid no?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Talking about this disaster without talking about global warming is a bit vapid no?

Sure, except that's not really what this thread was about. You just sort of randomly plucked it in for your own amusement. The thread was about what was going on at the moment, reports and new and discussions about that. An overall Global Warming debate could use it's own thread and probably has several other threads that you could have placed it in. Without derailing this one.

[Hockeyguy15]

I agree with MMF...Less debating, more stories and pictures.

[Tinordi]

Well I would very much argue that talking about global warming in the context of this storm isn't derailment. At least, from what I have been saying up until Yen's reply.

[The Yen Man]

Sorry, that was my fault.

[Lucifer]

This pic was posted on CJay 92's FB page:

[HPLovecraft]

Who the hell's Ken? Is fotze name-dropping?

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Who the hell's Ken? Is fotze name-dropping?

Oh no he di'int...

[Cowperson]

New York City Marathon scheduled for Sunday . . . . . . 47,000 runners, 8,000 volunteers, 1,000 employees, 2 million spectators . . . .

Officials trying to figure out how to proceed . . . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/sp...e.html?hp&_r=0

Cowperson

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

New York City Marathon scheduled for Sunday . . . . . . 47,000 runners, 8,000 volunteers, 1,000 employees, 2 million spectators . . . .

Officials trying to figure out how to proceed . . . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/sp...e.html?hp&_r=0

Cowperson

Give 'em bikes and make a triathlon out of it.

[OffsideSpecialist]

nm

[T@T]

Some crazy pics that show the power of a cat1 storm, bad luck resulted actually from a full moon high tide and it combining with an upper low moving down from "us truly" (perfect storm)

Brigantine, New Jersey


Tuckerton, New Jersey


A Virgin Mary statue stands in the Breezy Point neighborhood of Queens, New York, on Tuesday after a fire fed by high winds destroyed at least 80 homes.


A resident walks down a street covered in beach sand due to flooding from Hurricane Sandy in Long Beach, New York on Tuesday.

Originally Posted by transplant99

yes, because hurricanes are rare along the east coast of NA....granted that this one was a large one, but you know what? there have been really really big ones before, and lots of them happened long before the combustion engine. This season was one of the weakest for hurricanes ever recorded (as far as landfall)...which simply doesnt jive with the man made theory. Its all very cyclical.

I agree this one shouldn't be blamed just on global warming but I thought I should respond to your post that lacks much if any facts.

1) Because a large storm didn't make landfall in the USA doesn't mean it didn't happen.

2) Since the recording of "named storms" began in 1851 the average has been 11.7 per year, Sandy was the 19th named storm this year in the Atlantic and 6 hit land somewhere that caused deaths.

3) Since 1995 the average is roughly 35% higher than the previous 140+ years. And this average is about the same for Pacific named storms which kill far more

At this point does it matter if humans are contributing to the oceans/planet warming up? we couldn't cool it in 300 years even if we turned everything off. Question should be... can we slow it down a little or at least adapt to it with education and save peoples lives?

[Regulator75]

[Acey]

Strong words from the NJ Governor...

@GovChristie
There will be a few days of sorrow but then New Jerseyans will say the hell with this, let's get back to work. #Sandy

[TheSutterDynasty]

[red sky]

Isn't it hurricane? Without the extra i?

[Bertuzzied]

I miss Frankenstorm!