Time to sell? - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

OracleOfCalgary · 08-28-2007, 08:19 AM

Calgary real estate prices have entered a steep fall in late August. As of yesterday, CREB's web page reported that the average single family home price had fallen by $17,556 from $505,920 to $488,364... This means that if you bought a house a month ago with a 5% mortgage, your equity has been completely wiped out (if you factor in the CMHC premium that you would have paid.) I fully expect the total loss for August to exceed $20,000... September will be an interesting month.

underGRADFlame · 08-28-2007, 08:26 AM

sweet, let it fall, and for the next year too cause thats when I want to buy.

skins · 08-28-2007, 08:28 AM

don't prices usually drop in the fall, then climb in the spring? maybe this is more of a sign that things are leveling off.

Fobulous · 08-28-2007, 08:28 AM

Although I belive real estate prices are on the downfall I have heard from a realtor friend of mine that this is the general trend.

Prices seem to fall around this time of year and will continue to do so until the middle of winter. From what I hear the time to buy is December/January as prices will creep back up in the spring.

alltherage · 08-28-2007, 08:29 AM

Oh please, come back down even more! I feel sorry for everyone who will get burned by this, but I'm one person who didn't ride the houseing prices wave, I got drowned by it.

mykalberta · 08-28-2007, 08:44 AM

Isnt it more likely that cash hungry sellers are trying to take advantage of the prices and have flooded the market.

I know in my building alone there have been 7 units put up for sale in the last few months, currently there are 3 still on the market.

MYK

Sylvanfan · 08-28-2007, 09:23 AM

It's not just Calgary...it's all of Alberta. Many investors have put places up for sale and the markets are absolutely flooded right now. I mean it's hard to blame them, they're not going to see another 4 year period where prices go up 200% for quite a while. I had my house for sale in St.Albert for 3 months and the listing is about to expire. Today it's listed for 20 grand less than lesser houses sold for back in May. Eventually things had to reach a bit of a limit as they've pretty much introduced every new buying product they could in the past couple of years. From here on in I suspect real esate will start to return to normal where growth is closer to inflation and houses don't sell instantly with multiple competing offers.

Ultimately this should start affecting new homes too. Last I looked to build a new house just like mine the cost was close to 500G's and thats without appliances, landscaping, fence, deck and other things like blinds. By the time you pay for all that you're in for 515 to 525. So really is it worth 75 grand to live in a house thats 6 years newer.....75 grand will do a lot of sprucing up to my house.

alltherage · 08-28-2007, 09:31 AM

Why is the title of this thread "Time to Sell?" ? I don't think anyone should want to sell when the market cools.

Old Yeller · 08-28-2007, 09:34 AM

... and here I am planning to list my starter home in September and hopefully buy a larger home with my girlfriend sometime this fall.

I'm a little worried, but not too horribly as I bought before Calgary went nuts. I just don't want to sell in the winter and then buy in the Spring... I'd like to buy in November/December/January, but that all depends when I can sell my house.

A year or two ago, 'Welisting' it looked like a good idea, now with the market flooded I'm assuming it's best to use a realtor.

photon · 08-28-2007, 09:35 AM

I agree, generally this time of year is slower (like Christmas, we had this same response at Christmas that it was time to sell), combined with a lot of people trying to get profits. That plus builders are finally working through their backlog so more new houses are coming on.

The real question is have the market fundumentals changed? Supply has increased from the crazy days of 1,000 listings, but we're still not even at traditional levels of listings. People are still moving here in droves, and properties here are still very affordable (wages are higher here) compared to other places. Alberta's economy continues to hum..

I don't think this is the beginning of a downturn. It's just things relaxing and adjusting, hopefully we'll see a continued but more steady and moderate growth going forward. It's also a good time to buy, since you can actually negotiate, we just got a place for well below asking price.

photon · 08-28-2007, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alltherage

Why is the title of this thread "Time to Sell?" ? I don't think anyone should want to sell when the market cools.

If your house has gone up 125% and it's gone down 5% in the past few months, then I'm sure some people would still be satisfied with 120%

alltherage · 08-28-2007, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photon

If your house has gone up 125% and it's gone down 5% in the past few months, then I'm sure some people would still be satisfied with 120%

Truth, photon, truth. There are so many houses on my street in Lake Bonavista getting "flipped", and I can't help but feel some twisted sense of happiness that the flippers just lost ~$20k. I've lived there for 17 years and now we're putting up with construction zones on our street? It's unfair. There are literally about 4 houses in mid flip, and about a dozen have been done in the past 2 years.

What color are they going to paint THIS house? Oh, what a surprise! Beige and Black... AGAIN! I swear we have one of the only unique colored houses left on my block.

Sylvanfan · 08-28-2007, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Yeller

A year or two ago, 'Welisting' it looked like a good idea, now with the market flooded I'm assuming it's best to use a realtor.

Even 6-8 months ago you could have got away with it. But in St.Albert I have seen about 15 Comfree listed property's eventually switched to listed with a realtor in my little neighbourhood alone. I don't think I've seen a Comfree house sell for about 3 months either. So if you really are wanting to sell than a realtor is a much better option right now. Although depending on how much welist costs...you might be able to use it, but you'll have to price your house below what similar MLS places are going for.

llama64 · 08-28-2007, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photon

If your house has gone up 125% and it's gone down 5% in the past few months, then I'm sure some people would still be satisfied with 120%

True that. But if they bought, say 3 months ago and the market continues to erode, they will be sending the bank alot of money that selling the house will never recover.

Is it wrong to hope that the market suffers a dramatic drop so people walk away from their mortgages? I really need to move out of my basement suite!

OracleOfCalgary · 08-28-2007, 09:49 AM

True that the market normally cools slightly in the winter. Does anyone really believe that market norms really apply to Calgary currently? A 60% Y-O-Y appreciation is not normal.

SeeGeeWhy · 08-28-2007, 09:52 AM

The MLS listings for my area would suggest that I could list my house at a higher price than I paid for it in July. I was lucky and caught a motivated seller, I guess.

There is a lot of shuffling going on - people that were sitting on houses that doubled in value are deciding what to do with it. A lot of people are calling it a day and moving out of Province, some are upgrading, some are tapping equity to invest in other properties or investment opportunities - all of this takes time, and it makes room for people looking to get in.

Like Photon said, the fundamentals are not that different today than they were when the boom started. Certainly, a large part of the patch is suffering after the income trust tax announcements in Oct 2006, but the main drivers - High Oil Price and Major Oil Reserve Exploitation Development Projects - are still in full effect. Yes, the strain is being felt, but there is a limitation to how fast the economy can grow, as there is only so much people can do!

Also, the fall is traditionally a time that the markets soften, you will see this pick up again in the spring. This part of the year has, and likely always will be, a good time for the buyer to look at moving.

Time to sell? Let me just say that action motivated by fear and greed will always create opportunity for the savvy investor.

SeeGeeWhy · 08-28-2007, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OracleOfCalgary

True that the market normally cools slightly in the winter. Does anyone really believe that market norms really apply to Calgary currently? A 60% Y-O-Y appreciation is not normal.

You can't escape human nature.

The Yen Man · 08-28-2007, 09:56 AM

Wow, lucky for us, my mom unloaded her house near the U of C at the beginning of July. I think she actually sold it for more than what she would have got now. I guess it's all about timing.

I'm just hoping for more decline for the next year or so, cuz that's when I'll be looking at maybe buying too.

Old Yeller · 08-28-2007, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

but you'll have to price your house below what similar MLS places are going for.

Exactly, and that really defeats the puprose. A friend of mine just tried welisting and got ridiculously low-ball offers because "he didn't have to pay any realtor fees".

Some of the houses my girlfriend and I looked at 2 months ago have dropped in price by $20,000... unfortunately it's all relative as my place has probably dropped in value by a similar percentage.

Winsor_Pilates · 08-28-2007, 10:27 AM

I think things will go back up. Sept-Nov are pretty good months for real estate and i predict prices will go back up over this time.
Having said that, I believe Calgary is still a risky investment. Eventually prices will fall quite a bit, just not yet IMO. I'd sell next spring if I was trying to make a profit.