Tensions in the Middle East

[FlamesAddiction]

Imagine being the crew on that ship. They were at harbour safely in India for a naval symposium and exercise, then being asked to leave to join war. I would feel like a dead man walking. Poor suckers didn't even make it far past Sri Lanka before being picked off. The sub was probably just sitting there waiting the whole time.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Makarov

"Death to America" is becoming an increasingly reasonable policy position.

(Oh, relax, I'm kidding).

Hard to argue against that Comrade!

[Fuzz]

Home Region

Iraq plunged into nationwide blackout as US tells citizens to leave immediately

A spokesperson for the electricity ministry confirmed that the country's power network had shut down entirely, though the cause of the grid failure remained unclear amid the rapidly escalating regional conflict.
The blackout compounds what has already been a catastrophic week for Iraq, as the country finds itself caught in the crossfire of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and retaliatory strikes by Tehran and its allied militias.

Fresh explosions were heard in the northern city of Erbil on Wednesday, according to an AFP journalist on the ground. Pro-Iranian armed groups, including the Saraya Awliya al-Dam (Blood Guardian Brigades), have claimed responsibility for recent attacks near Erbil, at the Al-Harir base, as well as at the American Victoria base in Baghdad.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/...ly-3215617?s=1


Sure, why not roll Iraq into this? What's Afghanistan up to these days?

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Sure, why not roll Iraq into this? What's Afghanistan up to these days?

You somehow missed the Pakistan declaring open war on Afghanistan event?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/...stan-border-un

I mean, considering all the #### that's been going on it's hard to keep track, but yeah.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/...ly-3215617?s=1


Sure, why not roll Iraq into this? What's Afghanistan up to these days?

Gosh, the Syrian refugee crisis was so much fun. Why not create another, much larger one?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Firebot

You somehow missed the Pakistan declaring open war on Afghanistan event?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/...stan-border-un

I mean, considering all the #### that's been going on it's hard to keep track, but yeah.

Well between that and Cuba being silently blockaded to death, it really is tough to keep up.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Firebot

You somehow missed the Pakistan declaring open war on Afghanistan event?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/...stan-border-un

I mean, considering all the #### that's been going on it's hard to keep track, but yeah.

WTF?? When the #### did that happen?

[BagoPucks]

Same day Iran got hit. Or roughly around the same time.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Direct hit on BAPCO refinery. Heavy explosions

[Fuzz]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:vpf.../3mgdabqtuds2p


Thread at the link.


Interesting theory here by Seth Abramson. I find him trustworthy, but can come across as a bit alarmist. Though he researches and knows a lot more about the world than most, so his alarmism may be well placed. He's a professor and a lawyer, but also a writer and biographer. He's written for many reputable news organizations. He's also Jewish, just to head that one off too. Point is he isn't just some rando on Bluesky, which I guess I need a disclaimer for now, because snowflakes fall heavily.


It makes sense that Israel wants to draw as many countries into this as possible, and triggering article 5 would be a huge win on that front.

[CliffFletcher]

Iranian command and control has collapsed. There's no coordinated strategy and response when the commanders are dead and their replacements are terrified that they'll be blown to bits if they leave their bunker or pick up a phone.

So local units are operating independently, either based off existing "If attacked launch at these targets" scripts, or just on their own judgement. It's not at all surprising that many are just unloading their arsenals all over the place.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:vpf.../3mgdabqtuds2p


Thread at the link.


Interesting theory here by Seth Abramson. I find him trustworthy, but can come across as a bit alarmist. Though he researches and knows a lot more about the world than most, so his alarmism may be well placed. He's a professor and a lawyer, but also a writer and biographer. He's written for many reputable news organizations. He's also Jewish, just to head that one off too. Point is he isn't just some rando on Bluesky, which I guess I need a disclaimer for now, because snowflakes fall heavily.


It makes sense that Israel wants to draw as many countries into this as possible, and triggering article 5 would be a huge win on that front.

Turkey was hit by ballistic missiles (not a drone, or least not just a drone). It would be very hard to fake their trajectory.

Both Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly threatened Cyprus. Cyprus has tracked to the drone to an area in Lebanon.

Where are Iran and Hezbollah denying the Cyprus attacks?

[Fuzz]

The British have said the drone wasn't from Iran.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e55y0pzgwo


Here's Iran denying the Azerbaijan attack


https://globalnews.ca/video/11717773...east-conflict/


It's possible he's making those statements up, but I suspect if you look for them you will find them.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The British have said the drone wasn't from Iran.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e55y0pzgwo


Here's Iran denying the Azerbaijan attack


https://globalnews.ca/video/11717773...east-conflict/


It's possible he's making those statements up, but I suspect if you look for them you will find them.

That's a half truth. Britain is saying the drone was from Lebanon and launched by Hezbollah:

Western officials said the Shahed-type drone was not fired from Iran. However, officials would not say where the missile originated from.

British military officials' current best assessment is the drone was launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

They have not denied the Cyprus attack as far as I know.

So of the 3 initial points, the only one that is remotely true is Iran has denied attacking Azerbaijan. Iran is blaming the attack on Israel, which they are motivated to do to stir things up between the two allies and feed into their propaganda machine.

[FlamesAddiction]

From what was reported earlier, after the Ayatollah and those other government officials were killed, the Iranian military decentralized their command and have allowed different regions and local commands to do their own thing. I doubt Iran even know themselves what is going on completely. There is also a possibility that some drone attacks, especially the one in Cyprus that was a smaller drone, was localized terrorism.

Iran has threatened European cities with missile attacks, including Berlin and Athens. It was always predicted that their strategy would be to lash out and try to make the conflict spread.

https://www.politico.eu/article/iran...reat-missiles/

[Fuzz]

One the one side, we have the entirely trustworthy and rational Iranian regime, on the other side we have the entirely trustworthy and rational Israeli regime. Seems you've chosen a side to agree with based on my ability to provide you links. Not very solid ground.


Going to file this one under plausible for now.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

One the one side, we have the entirely trustworthy and rational Iranian regime, on the other side we have the entirely trustworthy and rational Israeli regime. Seems you've chosen a side to agree with based on my ability to provide you links. Not very solid ground.


Going to file this one under plausible for now.

you forgot the most trustworthy and rational regime of all, the USA!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Dan02

you forgot the most trustworthy and rational regime of all, the USA!

Who Bibi also manipulated into involvement. But no, he'd never do this.

[Looch City]

This war has turned into propaganda and misinformation war. It is truly weird.

I have family members posting videos saying "God bless Trump, god bless Netanyahu" and videos of blasts in Tehran saying this is the sound of freedom.

I try to look at it from both sides but it's so incredibly difficult. If my family and I were in Tehran with bombs dropping on our neighborhoods, would we be glad because the regime is being bombed and it just so happens to be in our neighborhood?

Honestly don't know how to feel anymore. It all feels fake, heavily influenced by bots and social media craze.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Looch City

This war has turned into propaganda and misinformation war. It is truly weird.

I have family members posting videos saying "God bless Trump, god bless Netanyahu" and videos of blasts in Tehran saying this is the sound of freedom.

I try to look at it from both sides but it's so incredibly difficult. If my family and I were in Tehran with bombs dropping on our neighborhoods, would we be glad because the regime is being bombed and it just so happens to be in our neighborhood?

Honestly don't know how to feel anymore. It all feels fake, heavily influenced by bots and social media craze.

There was a vast amount of hope in Syria, Iraq and Libya in the beginning, the sad truth is some countries that were stitched together from disparate ethnic and religious groups by my ancestors in the 19th and 20th century can only be held together by brutal force, no matter how happy many Iranians are now I fear several years of anarchic civil war will just end up with some other flavour of bastard in charge