2025/2026 Season Trade Rumours and Speculation Thread

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by united

The cost of retention on Kadri should be, and is, high. At 30% retained, Kadri would be the 3rd most costly retention of the cap era in terms of actual dollars at $6.6 million. At 25%, he would come in a 4th.

It is easy for us fans to be flippant about money as we usually think in terms of cap hit instead, but the reality is for a small market Flames team with poor attendance the actual dollars matter. Even more alarming for the Flames is this is the first season where they haven't sold out boxes in over a decade, and food and beverage is significantly down even in booked boxes. So when the top dogs see dark boxes, retention asks become more difficult to swallow especially when there is no incremental cap value to the retention like with Kadri at 1:1. Of course, this philosophy from a team being handed hundreds of millions of dollars of tax payer money, I digress.

Point being the Flames are willing to retain on Kadri, but they aren't going to exchange $4-6 million USD cash for a 3rd- to 7th-round pick just to get a deal done. Layer on the opportunity cost of tying up 3 seasons of a retention slot for potentially better returns in aggregate too and it creeps a bit more.

Now, there may come a time where they are forced to eat a #### sandwich. But we aren't there yet, thankfully.

...

The largest cash costs of retention to the trading team in the salary cap era with context of the moves:

Kevin Hayes, Flyers: $8.5 million
- The Flyers received a 6th-round pick
- Among the worst trades of the salary cap era but driven from a new GM in a position of desperation with a disgruntled player.

Ryan Johansen, Predators: $8.0 million
- The Predators received the rights to Alex Galchenyuk, who did not play another game in the NHL.
- The Predators were going to spend $10.7 million buying out Johansen's contract that summer anyway.

Ekman-Larsson, Coyotes: $6.0 million
- Alongside Ekman-Larsson, the Canucks received Conor Garland.
- The Coyotes received #9, #47, a 7th, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson.
- This trade was complicated - hard to quantify value of the retention.

Erik Karlsson, Sharks: $5.0 million
- This was a three-way trade involving 9 players and 3 draft picks. Hard to quantify value of the retention.

Brent Burns, Sharks: $4.4 million
- Alongside Burns, the Hurricanes received Lane Pederson.
- The Sharks received a 3rd, Steven Lorentz, and Eetu Makiniemi.
- This was in isolation a poor deal for the Sharks, but Burns had a 3-team trade list...so limited in what they could do.

I didn't do any math, but Hertl has to be up there. That doesn't change your point though

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by dino7c

actually it kinda is, do Coleman in this case

I agree. It isn’t as simple as retain on Kadri just to trade him. The Flames will have a whole bunch of other assets to trade next year

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

It's not always the sky falling. Sometimes it's "stuff" rising from below. Like when you don't have a backflow valve.

Ewwwww….(we are rural and have septic…AND a backflow valve LOL ).

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by united

The cost of retention on Kadri should be, and is, high. At 30% retained, Kadri would be the 3rd most costly retention of the cap era in terms of actual dollars at $6.6 million. At 25%, he would come in a 4th.

I actually don’t think it should be very high at all.

Your list pretty much confirms this, but retention is more about facilitating a deal than it is about gaining additional value in the deal. Retention hasn’t really had meaningful value in years, so pricing it too high just means the deal doesn’t get done.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I actually don’t think it should be very high at all.

Your list pretty much confirms this, but retention is more about facilitating a deal than it is about gaining additional value in the deal. Retention hasn’t really had meaningful value in years, so pricing it too high just means the deal doesn’t get done.

??? The dollars retained certainly have a meaningful value if you’re the one forking out the cash.

[The Cobra]

The cost of retention is based mostly on whether the player is overpaid or not.

If we assume that Kadri is largely worth his contract, the cost of retaining on his cinteact should be real, as it’s simply to make Kadri cheaper, not to make his contract movable.

If Calgary traded Huberdeau and retained half his salary, the cost of retention should be largely zero.

[getoverit]

I asked Gemini the chance of Kadri being treated by trade deadline, good as any to ask LMAO. Answer comes back at 55%

Given the current landscape of the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline (scheduled for Friday, March 6), the rumors surrounding Nazem Kadri have shifted from "speculation" to "active negotiations."

If I had to put a percentage on it based on the latest insider reports from the likes of Chris Johnston and Darren Dreger, I’d say there is a 75% chance he is traded—though there is a significant catch regarding the timing.

The Breakdown: Why he’s likely on the move
The Player's Stance (High Certainty): Reports as of early March 2026 indicate that Kadri has moved from being "open to a move" to "actively wanting" a trade to a contender. He has reportedly informed GM Craig Conroy of this desire.

The Team's Direction: With the Flames sitting near the bottom of the standings (30th as of late February) and having already moved Rasmus Andersson to Vegas, they are clearly in a "retool/rebuild" phase. Keeping a 35-year-old Kadri doesn't align with their timeline.

Active Bidding War: Reliable insiders suggest a "bidding war" is underway, with the Colorado Avalanche (a reunion), Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes, and even the Montreal Canadiens mentioned as potential suitors.

The "25% Doubt": Why a deal might wait until Summer
The reason this isn't a 100% lock for the deadline is the complexity of his contract:

Salary Retention: Kadri has three years left after this one at $7 million AAV. Most contenders need Calgary to retain salary.

Retention Slots: The Flames are currently using retention slots on Jacob Markstrom and Rasmus Andersson. Waiting until the summer would free up these slots, allowing Calgary to retain more money on Kadri's deal to maximize the return (likely a 1st-round pick and a top prospect).

No-Trade Clause: Kadri has a 13-team no-trade list, which gives him significant power to veto moves, potentially slowing down a deadline deal.

[IMG][/IMG]

[SuperMatt18]

I think one reason the market is slow this year is that very few of the contenders that generally make big splashes actually have 2026 picks - they moved most of them last year and then didnt' win.

The teams that have picks tend to be the teams that players like Coleman and Kadri probably wouldn't prefer to go to.

Playoff or Bubble Teams without 2026 1st:
Ottawa
Edmonton
Dallas
Minnesota
Colorado

Playoff Teams without 2026 or 2027 1st:
Vegas
Tampa Bay

Playoff or Bubble Teams with 2026 1st:
Montreal
Buffalo
Boston x 2
Carolina
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Islanders x 2
Columbus
Anaheim
Utah
Seattle x 2
San Jose x 2

The teams that have picks to move are the teams in the playoff picture for the first time in a while this year (San Jose, Anaheim, Buffalo), teams that thought they were entering more of a re-build that had an unexpectedly strong season (Islanders, Boston, Pittsburgh) or teams that are usually hesitant to move those picks (Carolina, Detroit, Montreal).

Some of the other teams that are generally aggressive in the trade market are also out of the picture this year (Florida, Toronto, LA, Washington, Rangers, New Jersey) so think that's made things a little quieter.

Hopefully Conroy can figure out a way to unlock a 2026 pick from one of these teams...San Jose and Weegar could be an interesting fit for sure.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I actually don’t think it should be very high at all.

Your list pretty much confirms this, but retention is more about facilitating a deal than it is about gaining additional value in the deal. Retention hasn’t really had meaningful value in years, so pricing it too high just means the deal doesn’t get done.

It's not just eating $6.6M and facilitating, you're also shedding $15M in salary

And retention counts against the floor which I imagine we're barely hitting next year if both are gone.

[united]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I didn't do any math, but Hertl has to be up there. That doesn't change your point though

Great point! And completely correct.

I always forget about that trade and it still blows my mind. Plus the legend Bob McKenzie coming from out of nowhere to drop the BOMB. What a move.

[GioforPM]

I don't think it's a matter of setting a price for retention in a vacuum. It's just the overall deal and of retention is part of it, that's a factor to consider. I assume all present deals for either Coleman or Kadri require retention. This may or may not be the case in the offseason, when teams have greater flexibility. So, with one slot, limited buyers, the Flames have to take the better deal and if that means holding the other player until the offseason (at earliest), so be it.

And this isn't a product of moving too late - the cap issues for a buyer would have been worse earlier in the season.

edit: just saw Pepsi basically said the same, above.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Oh, no question, it's a long haul on it. I haven't looked at his buyouts.

I also think his value doesn't necessarily drop as much as people think. His game seems the same most nights. He has always been a bit inconsistent - if he wasn't he'd be a top tier player. But his wheels haven't slowed. His compete level when motivated is still high. He seems like the same player he was in Colorado to me. Just without the surroundings.

If a team bought out Kadri in the final year, that would effectively* turn the $7M AAV into a $4.375M AAV after this season.


*nothing is ever what it means anymore

[united]

Also, with the new COO, Lorenzo DeCicco, leaving the Flames already maybe there is more going on behind the scenes. Candice Goudie leaving, too. Or maybe organic and unrelated. I certainly don't know.

Or maybe they just let the R-word slip and got handed their papers. Rebuild

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The cost of retention is based mostly on whether the player is overpaid or not.

If we assume that Kadri is largely worth his contract, the cost of retaining on his cinteact should be real, as it’s simply to make Kadri cheaper, not to make his contract movable.

If Calgary traded Huberdeau and retained half his salary, the cost of retention should be largely zero.

This is the debate/negotiation

Teams are saying that third year is BAD so the Flames take the hit

Flames can say F that then we won't trade him at all

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think one reason the market is slow this year is that very few of the contenders that generally make big splashes actually have 2026 picks - they moved most of them last year and then didnt' win.

The teams that have picks tend to be the teams that players like Coleman and Kadri probably wouldn't prefer to go to.

Playoff or Bubble Teams without 2026 1st:
Ottawa
Edmonton
Dallas
Minnesota
Colorado

Playoff Teams without 2026 or 2027 1st:
Vegas
Tampa Bay

Playoff or Bubble Teams with 2026 1st:
Montreal
Buffalo
Boston x 2
Carolina
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Islanders x 2
Columbus
Anaheim
Utah
Seattle x 2
San Jose x 2

The teams that have picks to move are the teams in the playoff picture for the first time in a while this year (San Jose, Anaheim, Buffalo), teams that thought they were entering more of a re-build that had an unexpectedly strong season (Islanders, Boston, Pittsburgh) or teams that are usually hesitant to move those picks (Carolina, Detroit, Montreal).

Some of the other teams that are generally aggressive in the trade market are also out of the picture this year (Florida, Toronto, LA, Washington, Rangers, New Jersey) so think that's made things a little quieter.

Hopefully Conroy can figure out a way to unlock a 2026 pick from one of these teams...San Jose and Weegar could be an interesting fit for sure.

No issue stocking piling 2027 first round picks so they can maneuver around as needed.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I actually don’t think it should be very high at all.

Your list pretty much confirms this, but retention is more about facilitating a deal than it is about gaining additional value in the deal. Retention hasn’t really had meaningful value in years, so pricing it too high just means the deal doesn’t get done.

Yeah, I don't think the cost of retention is the problem. The problem is teams simply can't/won't take on Kadri without retention, full-stop.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think one reason the market is slow this year is that very few of the contenders that generally make big splashes actually have 2026 picks - they moved most of them last year and then didnt' win.

That's another part of it. Most of the contenders blew their wads in the last couple seasons and are now capped out and pick/prospect poor. And the up-and-comers are either still reluctant to spend big for short-term adds (MTL, DET), or are unattractive destinations and blocked by NMCs (BUF, UTA).

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by united

also, with the new coo, lorenzo decicco, leaving the flames already maybe there is more going on behind the scenes. Candice goudie leaving, too. or maybe organic and unrelated. I certainly don't know.

or maybe they just let the r-word slip and got handed their papers. rebuild

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[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Some folks just want the Flames to do whatever the Flames will do, and will happily cheer along at whatever the result. 40 years of futility be damned.

Forty years now? Is this the same math that makes Kadri 40 years old?

Or are you saying that winning the Cup in 1989 was part of the futility?

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Forty years now? Is this the same math that makes Kadri 40 years old?

Or are you saying that winning the Cup in 1989 was part of the futility?

46 years of disappointment, actually. It's disappointing that an NHL franchise came here.

[Toonage]

Leafs apparently sitting OEL, Laughton & McMann tonight per Chris Johnston