I'm honestly curious. How much of the world is travelable at this point? Can't go to the US, Middle East, Cuba, parts of Mexico and South America, much of Africa, Eastern Europe... Really all that's left is Canada, Australia, a good chunk of Asia, and the NATO countries in Europe. I wonder if China will become a top destination for Canadian tourists in the next few years?
Ya know...if you'd asked 'High School Locke' if he ever thought there would be another land war in his lifetime he'd likely have said no.
Now? Its like half of the goddamned Globe is on fire.
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That is awful. I feel terrible for the families of those people.
Where was your “commentary” when the Iranian regime killed 30000 of their own citizens?
I also support the US acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security.
Do you? Or are you conveniently forgetting about this ?
Let me guess, that’s something a Nazi would say. !!
The lesson every country in the world learns from this though is get a nuke as fast as possible, now that the US is not a rational player
I'm honestly curious. How much of the world is travelable at this point? Can't go to the US, Middle East, Cuba, parts of Mexico and South America, much of Africa, Eastern Europe... Really all that's left is Canada, Australia, a good chunk of Asia, and the NATO countries in Europe. I wonder if China will become a top destination for Canadian tourists in the next few years?
Oh sure, ignore New Zealand. Just because it's left off map sometimes, doesn't mean it doesn't exist!
I'm honestly curious. How much of the world is travelable at this point? Can't go to the US, Middle East, Cuba, parts of Mexico and South America, much of Africa, Eastern Europe... Really all that's left is Canada, Australia, a good chunk of Asia, and the NATO countries in Europe. I wonder if China will become a top destination for Canadian tourists in the next few years?
How many of those places were high on your tourism list before an increase in tensions? I think that those regions are the places that don't offer much in the way of interest for 99% of the population, outside of resorts in Mexico.
Also I think that while tourism to the States has decreased, it isn't as though it isn't travelable for safety reasons as it is in the Middle East.
My guess is that things will get worse before/if things get better in Iran. It’s not like the regime had no plans for succession when the leader was in his 80s.
That and there is a pretty large number of people in this political class. This isn't going to be a place that you can just hit with air assaults for 3 weeks and move on. The IRGC would need to be eliminated to bring about a meaningful regime change and without boots on the ground that won't happen. Tehran is pretty much a mountain fortress that makes getting boots on the ground next to impossible. This is one of the oldest civilizations on Earth for good reason. Yes Khomeini was brutal as is the regime in general. But it's definitely going to double down on making sure the citizens don't revolt because them teaming up with the Artesh is the only thing that could possibly topple the IRGC. So they will do everything possible to eliminate that threat.
Although a few of the Iranian folks I know will tell me, life is bad and they believe the risk of ot getting much worse for the slight possibility of toppling this regime would be worth it. Their perspective is that life in Iran for a majority of the population will only continue to get worse. So increasing the rate of deterioration for the chance to reverse this is worth the risk. Hard for many of us who never had to live under that type of oppression to grasp.
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That and there is a pretty large number of people in this political class. This isn't going to be a place that you can just hit with air assaults for 3 weeks and move on. The IRGC would need to be eliminated to bring about a meaningful regime change and without boots on the ground that won't happen. Tehran is pretty much a mountain fortress that makes getting boots on the ground next to impossible. This is one of the oldest civilizations on Earth for good reason. Yes Khomeini was brutal as is the regime in general. But it's definitely going to double down on making sure the citizens don't revolt because them teaming up with the Artesh is the only thing that could possibly topple the IRGC. So they will do everything possible to eliminate that threat.
Although a few of the Iranian folks I know will tell me, life is bad and they believe the risk of ot getting much worse for the slight possibility of toppling this regime would be worth it. Their perspective is that life in Iran for a majority of the population will only continue to get worse. So increasing the rate of deterioration for the chance to reverse this is worth the risk. Hard for many of us who never had to live under that type of oppression to grasp.
Its a "Damned if you Do, Damned if you Don't" scenario.
You topple a regime and murderize a Dictator. Cool. Cool, cool, cool....then what? The guy was an Octogenarian, he surely had a succession plan in place.
Do you murderize all those guys too?
Cool. Cool, cool, cool.
Then what?
Who is going to step up and replace them? Are they good actors or bad actors? Do you risk it? Or do you replace the leadership yourself?
All choices inevitably lead to the same end. Its a giant #### sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite.
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A former Canadian cruiserweight boxing champion and Iranian freedom activist had his gym shot up after the Ayatollah was killed. It would be nice not see the violence exported here.
Various police forces in Ontario (and presumably elsewhere in Canada) had been increasing presence at mosques and places of worship, anticipating violence.
I'm honestly curious. How much of the world is travelable at this point? Can't go to the US, Middle East, Cuba, parts of Mexico and South America, much of Africa, Eastern Europe... Really all that's left is Canada, Australia, a good chunk of Asia, and the NATO countries in Europe. I wonder if China will become a top destination for Canadian tourists in the next few years?
New Zealand and Japan are also very safe/friendly places to visit. I have trips planned to both over the next two years if I can afford it. And I’m heading over to Ireland for a trip this fall.
Who is even doing this? Hardline Iranian immigrants? Hardline Jewish zionists? Rednecks?
I'm going with hardline Iranians due to the timing being right after the Ayatollah was killed and the fact that is a well known anti-regime activist in Canada.
Also this quote from the victim:
Quote:
Gholami said he believes his gym was targeted because of his activism and he alleged the shooting was carried out by people linked to the Islamic Republic. He said he also receives daily threats against his life.
Daily death threats? Who are these people who have nothing to do? And are these pretty much Taliban-esq individuals living in Canada who like the Islamic Republic? Seems a little silly to be living here if they love their home ways so much.
Who is even doing this? Hardline Iranian immigrants? Hardline Jewish zionists? Rednecks?
There's definitely Iranians here who support the Islamic Republic.
I remember in Vancouver a couple years ago when many Iranian protests were happening, there was counter protests and clashing.
How are you guys always experts in every single subject that comes up?
I really like following Javier Blas on twitter. He's got an energy slant but not pro energy, just digestible explanations on the wickedly complicated markets of how energy moves around. Super interesting. And obviously this stuff plays a role.
A few day-two thoughts. There's still a lot that we don't know about dynamics and decision-making in America, Iran and the Gulf, and those unanswered questions will shape how this plays out:
1) How does Trump see this ending? Will he press on for weeks? Will he look for a way to declare victory now that Khamenei is dead? Does he even know the answer?
2) How resilient is the regime, really? Yes, it has planned for this moment and it's not a one-man show. But it has to manage a transition under sustained fire and at a time of deep political and economic crisis. No one knows how this is going to play out; be wary of simple answers.
3) On a related note, how much do we see unrest in Iran, either peaceful or violent? And how much does the regime retain the capacity to quash it?
4) To what extent is the regime actually exercising command and control? Is lobbing drones at civilian airports and hotels in the Gulf a strategy directed from the top? Or is it self-directed, individual units hitting random targets because the regime delegated decision-making to them?
5) How long can Iran sustain its attacks on the Gulf? And how long can Gulf states continue parrying them with air defenses? The latter clock is probably ticking faster than the former.
6) What will the Gulf states do? They cannot sit idly amid a sustained campaign of attacks that have real human and economic cost. But how much actual power/influence do they have, whether to pressure Trump to end the war or to choose sides and support it?
7) What will happen when oil markets open later today? A big, sustained spike in prices would surely have an impact on Trump's decision-making
