2025/2026 Season Trade Rumours and Speculation Thread

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Spurly

Don’t forget, according to some on here. First round picks are essentially seconds.

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

Sure but you have to draw the line somewhere

A first is a first

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

Most teams are operating based off their lists at that point anyway. For example, Basha was a consensus late 1st round(#23-30), while Gridin was a consensus mid second round(#45-55) heading into the draft.Which is why most of CP wanted the Flames to take Basha ahead of Gridin, but he was still on the board 13 picks later.

[Sandman]

Every team has their list, and every list is very different, I’m sure.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

The argument is still dumb imo. A contenders 2nd round pick is basically a third by the same argument and that’s what they’d get if it was a 2nd

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

unfortunately, only good teams trade for rentals for the most part and good teams have picks in the 20+s


It's not sexy on podium night but you can get players here and that's what matters to the Flames long term

[united]

The delta in expected value between 32 and 34 is the same as the delta between 112 and 208.

So the next time the Flames acquire a 7th-round pick we can cope by saying they essentially acquired a mid-4th.

And the next time the Flames trade a mid-4th we can cope by saying they essentially traded a 7th.

Win-win!

[Jay Random]

It’s disingenuous to compare the value of the 32nd and 34th picks anyway. Nobody knows at the trade deadline who is going to pick 32nd. Even if you acquire the pick from the team that is first overall at that moment, it will be an earlier pick unless that team happens to win the Stanley Cup. On the other end, a team holding the probable 34th pick isn’t trading for rentals anyway.

If you trade for a first from a contender, you’re getting a pick in an unpredictable position between about 25 and 32. The statistical value of that is significantly higher than the value of any 2nd that is likely to be available during the season.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

But if a late 1st is basically an early 2nd, and an early 2nd is basically a late 1st, don't they just cancel each other out?

[RedHawk12]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

But if a late 1st is basically an early 2nd, and an early 2nd is basically a late 1st, don't they just cancel each other out?

Funny thing is, they do. Like that Vancouver 3rd we're getting this year is basically a 2nd. But downgrading a pick from what is actually is apparently a crime.

[Monahammer]

I wonder what the true net difference is in various scouting lists... I imagine with data availability and sophistication increasing the net is probably shrinking every year.

Without factoring GM preference, which is likely highly detrimental in some cases, I would posit that the higher the similarity in scouting lists, the more value the delta between picks 32-35 have. But, if you believe that theres a high variability in scouting lists then the delta in value in those picks could become meaningless.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I wonder what the true net difference is in various scouting lists... I imagine with data availability and sophistication increasing the net is probably shrinking every year.

Without factoring GM preference, which is likely highly detrimental in some cases, I would posit that the higher the similarity in scouting lists, the more value the delta between picks 32-35 have. But, if you believe that theres a high variability in scouting lists then the delta in value in those picks could become meaningless.

I think the difference in value would largely depend on how many prospects the Flames have in the same tier when it comes to say pick #32. If there are 2 or less then it would be considerably more valuable than pick #34.

In 2020 the Flames had the #19 pick, but moved down twice to still select Zary at #24, likely because they had several prospects in the same tier. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Capitals valued Schneider, and Lapierre above the rest, so for them it was worth the 3rd round pick. Unfortunately picks #72(Poirier), and #80(Boltmann) didn't add any value either.

[Spurly]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Not this again…
32nd pick (1st round)
34th pick (2nd round)
Value is almost identical.

I believe this is what the late 1st = basically a 2nd round pick crowd are saying. It’s why they assign a value to each pick.
But I could be wrong!

Where it started was in the raz trade, somebody said we didn’t get a first,we got essentially a second.

It will be officially recorded as a first.

So when offered a first round pick do we now want Connie, to say nah. Give me a second, it’s the same thing anyway.

[Braden]

With the forfeit of Ottawas pick, the Stanley cup winner will be 31st OA, but if 32 is the cut off between 1st and 2nd than technically this year that early 2nd (33OA) is a first @ 32OA.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Spurly

Where it started was in the raz trade, somebody said we didn’t get a first,we got essentially a second.

It will be officially recorded as a first.

So when offered a first round pick do we now want Connie, to say nah. Give me a second, it’s the same thing anyway.

Hyperbole is the psoriatic backbone of negative posting. Just ask 200-year old Kadri.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Spurly

Where it started was in the raz trade, somebody said we didn’t get a first,we got essentially a second.

It will be officially recorded as a first.

So when offered a first round pick do we now want Connie, to say nah. Give me a second, it’s the same thing anyway.

Comparing value of draft picks (late first vs a late second) is a legit analysis.

Spinning a first round pick as a second to attempt to put a Flames trade in the worst possible light is disingenuous.

[Spurly]

Spinning a first round pick as a second to attempt to put a Flames trade in the worst possible light is disingenuous.[/QUOTE]

Exactly.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Spurly

Where it started was in the raz trade, somebody said we didn’t get a first,we got essentially a second.

It will be officially recorded as a first.

So when offered a first round pick do we now want Connie, to say nah. Give me a second, it’s the same thing anyway.

Yup. The comment is silly, in and of itself. But it was particularly silly in this case because we have no idea what the VGS pick will even be, and very likely won't be 32nd. And to make it even more ridiculous is the fact that, if it IS 32nd, the other pick in the deal turns from a 2nd to a another 1st! And it almost certainly won't be the 32nd OA either.

The poster was trying to downplay the return because they didn't like that Conroy traded with VGS.

It deserved the responses it got - for all the reasons it got them.

[D as in David]

If Ottawa ends up in at least the conference finals, they can feel good that they only had a second round pick taken away from them.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Comparing value of draft picks (late first vs a late second) is a legit analysis.

Spinning a first round pick as a second to attempt to put a Flames trade in the worst possible light is disingenuous.

Speaking of which, the 3rd round pick that the Flames received from Vancouver for Zadorov is currently the first pick in the 3rd round. 65th overall, and the 64th player taking.

Around where Oliver Kylington (2nd round, 60th OA) was taken.