Let's talk about Cryptocurrencies

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Table 5

There's a pretty crazy ####coin the kids are starting to talk about.

Apparently called "silver"?

Has gone up 225% YoY, and almost 40% just since the start of January!

And the poorer brother, gold.

[Wormius]

Wonder if there’ll ever be a reversal where platinum exceeds gold again.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Whatever becomes common, it's going to be regulated and probably controlled by Big Finance. It's not going to be Bitcoin. Hell, looking at that page the current transaction fee is ~$530 USD. That'd make for a very expensive pizza order.


Other concerns are the very real threat of a 51% attack, as miners consolidate. Also, with quantum computers ramping up, the fear that they will break the encryption
algorithm bitcoin uses is real, and rapidly approaching.


story:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quant...150000966.html


Current projection is just over 2 years:
https://quantumdoomclock.com/explanation

If you could accurately predict that moment you could accurately predict the next financial crisis. Bitcoin is too linked it’s taking a huge swath of investment firms with it when it goes down.

[chemgear]

With gold and metals doing what they're doing as a "flight" to safety, the debasement trade, etc. I thought the argument was that crypto was supposed to be the same trade or at least some semblance of it. With all the shenanigans with Trump, the US dollar and bitcoin just doesn't seem to behave like it at all.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by chemgear

With gold and metals doing what they're doing as a "flight" to safety, the debasement trade, etc. I thought the argument was that crypto was supposed to be the same trade or at least some semblance of it. With all the shenanigans with Trump, the US dollar and bitcoin just doesn't seem to behave like it at all.

Bitcoin has roughly acted like a tech stock and so isn't seen as a safe haven in the coming storm, it has also been the victim of it's own success to a degree, anything that has swung massively up isnt likely to hold it's value in a market correction

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by GGG

If you could accurately predict that moment you could accurately predict the next financial crisis. Bitcoin is too linked it’s taking a huge swath of investment firms with it when it goes down.

It's a projection, based on known knowns, not a prediction. The projection will change as we know more.

I'm not worried about it taking down the financial system. Bitcoin is worth about 1.75 trillion.

The biggest holders are Satoshi, MicroStrategy, Tesla, Tether, and the likes. That's about 10% of the total.

https://www.kraken.com/learn/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin

If investment firms go down with the crypto boat, they probably deserve it.

[Table 5]

Silver/Gold definitely acting like crypto today!

[Wormius]

October 5th: $125k

Originally Posted by dino7c

It's still cheap

November 7th: $103k

Originally Posted by dino7c

You guys talk #### about me posting only when its up...when this was bumped today I knew exactly who I would find in here lol

Its on sale, buy

Today: $76k

This isn’t some attempt at a gotcha, but this was not great advice and if anybody took this seriously they’d have been burned. I don’t think anybody can claim wisdom when it comes to crypto investing.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Wormius

October 5th: $125k



November 7th: $103k



Today: $76k

This isn’t some attempt at a gotcha, but this was not great advice and if anybody took this seriously they’d have been burned. I don’t think anybody can claim wisdom when it comes to crypto investing.

For me that's the only issue, I just dropped 20,000 into Microsoft, I could be wrong but at 10% down even when it has had a good quarter it is hard to see it not making money over the next decade, it's a good well run business

I have no idea why any crypto goes up or down, no one does, it is wholly market driven, it could be worth 150,000 in a month or 20,000 there is no way to predict either

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Wormius

October 5th: $125k



November 7th: $103k



Today: $76k

This isn’t some attempt at a gotcha, but this was not great advice and if anybody took this seriously they’d have been burned. I don’t think anybody can claim wisdom when it comes to crypto investing.

Half Price! Buy Now!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Wormius

October 5th: $125k



November 7th: $103k



Today: $76k

This isn’t some attempt at a gotcha, but this was not great advice and if anybody took this seriously they’d have been burned. I don’t think anybody can claim wisdom when it comes to crypto investing.

If you worry about a few months you aren't cut out for Crypto investing...or investing at all honestly. You guys are so short term, again ZOOM OUT.
Earlier in this thread people are calling me out for saying to buy at $3000 peak bubble now you mock 76,000 lol
I am talking years not a few months...105, 127, 76, will be considered cheap in a few years just like When Jammies was mocking 45k or whatever a couple years ago.

Nobody is "burned" unless they sold low. I would never suggest someone invest in anything for 3 months lol that is just stupid. This is why I have make so much money in Crypto I don't panic or even bother with the day to day. This is Bitcoin, it cycles but the highs and lows are higher every cycle...its cycling down at the moment. DCA and forget about the noise. Or don't, what do I care?

[topfiverecords]

Haha, the care is obvious.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If you worry about a few months you aren't cut out for Crypto investing...or investing at all honestly. You guys are so short term, again ZOOM OUT.
Earlier in this thread people are calling me out for saying to buy at $3000 peak bubble now you mock 76,000 lol
I am talking years not a few months...105, 127, 76, will be considered cheap in a few years just like When Jammies was mocking 45k or whatever a couple years ago.

Nobody is "burned" unless they sold low. I would never suggest someone invest in anything for 3 months lol that is just stupid. This is why I have make so much money in Crypto I don't panic or even bother with the day to day. This is Bitcoin, it cycles but the highs and lows are higher every cycle...its cycling down at the moment. DCA and forget about the noise. Or don't, what do I care?

Why is it down, and why would you recommend people buy at its peak at the start of a downward trajectory? Are people expect to hold this forever? I mean, people want actual money at some point. When would you expect somebody to break even if they bought 3 months ago?

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If you worry about a few months you aren't cut out for Crypto investing...or investing at all honestly. You guys are so short term, again ZOOM OUT.
Earlier in this thread people are calling me out for saying to buy at $3000 peak bubble now you mock 76,000 lol
I am talking years not a few months...105, 127, 76, will be considered cheap in a few years just like When Jammies was mocking 45k or whatever a couple years ago.

Nobody is "burned" unless they sold low. I would never suggest someone invest in anything for 3 months lol that is just stupid. This is why I have make so much money in Crypto I don't panic or even bother with the day to day. This is Bitcoin, it cycles but the highs and lows are higher every cycle...its cycling down at the moment. DCA and forget about the noise. Or don't, what do I care?

I think my biggest concern is this cycle. Typically after a halving event there is a large run up in the following 18 months (rough numbers):
2012 went from $12 to $1000 (8233%)
2016 went from $675 to $15,600 (2122%)
2020 went from $9500 to $64,000 (572%)
2024 went from $66,000 to $123,000 (86%)

For ROI i assumed it is a 1 year time frame from the halving points

we also see large flat periods between the run up and the halving, we may be in the flat period now already. the general trend is the peak is becoming a 5th of the return. so now are we waiting until 2029 to get up to 20% bump on the value of bitcoin, or is it going to behave differently than the trend and go parabolic. Is bitcoin the correct prediction, or is bitcoin just netscape and will be replaced by something current or something we don't know yet.

Dino7 I would appreciate your comments on the data. keep in mind as previously talked about, I am on your side and do own crypto, not as much as you and not as early as you. but I also own a lot else. and since the halving until today every mag 7 stock except microsoft has outperformed bitcoin by double (amazon is not quite double but very close). Again, this is not an attack, but I want to know your thoughts on what the trends after halving have been doing and will that trend continue or will it significantly increase in value or is bitcoin just a normal commodity now?

[topfiverecords]

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Why is it down, and why would you recommend people buy at its peak at the start of a downward trajectory? Are people expect to hold this forever? I mean, people want actual money at some point. When would you expect somebody to break even if they bought 3 months ago?

If you aren't willing to hold for 5-10 years I would not recommend buying. IF I were starting today I would DCA. I have never claimed to be able to time the market perfectly, nobody can. My long term plan would be to borrow against bitcoin not to sell it. Money is cheap to borrow against an apex asset which is what I see Bitcoin becoming and there is also no tax on borrowed money.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Tiger

I think my biggest concern is this cycle. Typically after a halving event there is a large run up in the following 18 months (rough numbers):
2012 went from $12 to $1000 (8233%)
2016 went from $675 to $15,600 (2122%)
2020 went from $9500 to $64,000 (572%)
2024 went from $66,000 to $123,000 (86%)

For ROI i assumed it is a 1 year time frame from the halving points

we also see large flat periods between the run up and the halving, we may be in the flat period now already. the general trend is the peak is becoming a 5th of the return. so now are we waiting until 2029 to get up to 20% bump on the value of bitcoin, or is it going to behave differently than the trend and go parabolic. Is bitcoin the correct prediction, or is bitcoin just netscape and will be replaced by something current or something we don't know yet.

Dino7 I would appreciate your comments on the data. keep in mind as previously talked about, I am on your side and do own crypto, not as much as you and not as early as you. but I also own a lot else. and since the halving until today every mag 7 stock except microsoft has outperformed bitcoin by double (amazon is not quite double but very close). Again, this is not an attack, but I want to know your thoughts on what the trends after halving have been doing and will that trend continue or will it significantly increase in value or is bitcoin just a normal commodity now?

You think I am all in on Bitcoin? I have invested less than 20k...this is why I always say zoom out these aren't short term plays. Stock market is hot, I'm not selling tech stocks either anytime soon.

I don't follow your 2029 20% target for bitcoin though.

Q4 post election years have been the start of bear markets historically and they often last for about a year. I think there is a good chance the cycle is accelerated but a year or so bear market is certainly possible, maybe even likely. You are almost certainly are climbing by October at the latest. You aren't going to see those insane returns with a more mature asset but you also won't drop down to a few thousand dollars before the ride up.

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You think I am all in on Bitcoin? I have invested less than 20k...this is why I always say zoom out these aren't short term plays. Stock market is hot, I'm not selling tech stocks either anytime soon.

I don't follow your 2029 20% target for bitcoin though.

Q4 post election years have been the start of bear markets historically and they often last for about a year. I think there is a good chance the cycle is accelerated but a year or so bear market is certainly possible, maybe even likely. You are almost certainly are climbing by October at the latest. You aren't going to see those insane returns with a more mature asset but you also won't drop down to a few thousand dollars before the ride up.

2029 is about 12 to 18 months after next halving

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If you worry about a few months you aren't cut out for Crypto investing...or investing at all honestly. You guys are so short term, again ZOOM OUT.
Earlier in this thread people are calling me out for saying to buy at $3000 peak bubble now you mock 76,000 lol
I am talking years not a few months...105, 127, 76, will be considered cheap in a few years just like When Jammies was mocking 45k or whatever a couple years ago.

Nobody is "burned" unless they sold low. I would never suggest someone invest in anything for 3 months lol that is just stupid. This is why I have make so much money in Crypto I don't panic or even bother with the day to day. This is Bitcoin, it cycles but the highs and lows are higher every cycle...its cycling down at the moment. DCA and forget about the noise. Or don't, what do I care?

I guess I'm the latter. I was toying with bitcoin in the $300-400 range, but i also was playing with the earlier version, e-gold which I got burned on. I made a couple hundred, moved on. I honestly don't see the value in modern crypto and I still don't. I still view it them like tokens at an arcade or a collectible. You can say there's a ton of desirable games you can play there with those tokens, but IMO I still think it's too limited and will continue to be for a while. I also think a new era of towns will arrive rendering the original tokens relatively worthless, but that might be the e-gold cynicism talking.

I also cashed out my pokemon cards a few years before the pandemic. Pages of holos including several Charizard, one was first edition. It's just paper.

Pre pandemic, I had a chance to buy a white gold Rolex Daytona for $30K (CAD). I thought it stupid to put my life savings into a single watch with more than my car, so I got something else for a fraction of the price. A similar one went more than 10x at its peak with one selling at Sothebys for $300K+ USD about two years later.

I honestly still think there's no inherent value in these things that I cashed out too early or decided against and I stand by that. No regrets in my decision. It would have been nice not to have needed the extra bit of funds so that I could have suddenly been mortgage free in 2024. It is what it is.

Laugh if you want, but if I have free cash flow and want to be aggressive, it ain't crypto. I believe in block chain technology and I believe in NFT token technology to combat counterfeiting, but I've never met another person who had a semblance of understanding of that stuff, and I've met a ton of people who are like, "Hello doubleF, do you know what is crypto?". I also think no one at all is developing that tech well at all. It's doing about as good as graphene. I viewed crypto the same at $300 than I did at $3000 and $30000. I doubt I change my mind even if it goes to $300K. Proof of work and smart contracts backed value makes no sense to me. Commodity backed crypto is in the right direction but IMO still wrong. Stock backed crypto or stock tokens is IMO probably the only thing that might finally get me back into crypto.

Maybe some jackass might accidentally merge the actual useful part of the tech with AI to stabilize some application. But for now, I view it as another piece of tech that is aimlessly seeking purpose and evolution. The last piece of such tech that finally figured it out IMO was auto surfing which turned into the backbone of the ads that help with apps with microtransactions. Actually, I think P2P file sharing will be part of the next tech leaps before block chain, but not totally sure what industry might kick start it.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You think I am all in on Bitcoin? I have invested less than 20k...this is why I always say zoom out these aren't short term plays. Stock market is hot, I'm not selling tech stocks either anytime soon.

I don't follow your 2029 20% target for bitcoin though.

Q4 post election years have been the start of bear markets historically and they often last for about a year. I think there is a good chance the cycle is accelerated but a year or so bear market is certainly possible, maybe even likely. You are almost certainly are climbing by October at the latest. You aren't going to see those insane returns with a more mature asset but you also won't drop down to a few thousand dollars before the ride up.

I thought it might have been a few hundred grand to a million or something. Not sure why.