Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Johnny Makarov]

Or no Federal NDP works as well... lol

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Their actual policies are the opposite of a populist agenda and are entirely aligned with a neoliberal / corporatist / authoritarian party.

Look no further than PP's big signature solution to "solve" the housing affordability crisis from the last election: abolish the GST on home sales. Nevermind that GST is only applied on new home builds, not existing home sales, so the benefit is already going to be limited only to those who are the first owner of a new property. Furthermore, PP's proposed plan didn't stipulate that it had to be your primary residence, so a rich retired boomer couple from Toronto who wanted to buy a winter home on Vancouver Island that would remain empty for ~9 months of the year was equally eligible for the GST rebate as a young professional trying to buy their first home. Most egregious of all, there was no cap on the number of new homes you could buy and not have to pay GST. This meant that an institutional real estate firm which buys hundreds of new properties for the purpose of renting them would also be eligible for the GST rebate on every home they purchased. I saw it described as a "Buy 20, Get 1 Free!" program for large rental property companies.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

This seems timely with all the talk of former CPC leaders, not sure if it was posted.

https://thewalrus.ca/advice-for-pierre-poilievre/

Originally Posted by Erin O'Toole

I am on the record saying that Pierre Poilievre should remain the leader of the Conservatives and be given a second opportunity to win an election. I know the pressures on him and his family, and I respect their service to the country. But as a leader, he needs to be introspective and courageous enough to overcome the adversity of the last year and learn from it. Political leaders have the dual priorities of focusing on what is best for their country or province and what is best for them politically to win the next election. In this age of polarization, however, it is critical that a leader understand that those priorities come in that exact order. Country first. Winning elections second.

[...]

Being the official opposition in the House of Commons means that we have come second to the party that will govern. We have given a noble effort but have come up short again and again. This is incredibly frustrating. I know this myself on a deep, personal level. It does not mean, however, that this frustration should lead to the role of opposition being approached with a constant sneer or with some form of angry patriotism.

The leader of the opposition must always project an unwavering faith in the country and its people, alongside a visible optimism about its future. Don’t only point out where things are broken but offer the peace of mind that comes with repair and improvement. This is especially true when the country is facing pressures on our unity and our sovereignty from forces that are both external and internal.

tl;dr: "PP, get your **** together."

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Or no Federal NDP works as well... lol

Ya, I've seen you post this a few times. I honestly think you need to join the Federal NDP and figure out how to make it something you would want to support instead of sitting on the sidelines and slagging on it while also slagging on the conservatives.

In a multi-party system, even a substandard one like our 'first past the post' system, it is critical to have more viable healthy parties, not less. If the Liberals are the only viable party then we are in trouble as a nation.

Having a Liberal / NDP flip flop going forward looks a lot safer and more healthy for our democracy than a Liberal / Conservative flip flop. This new version of the Conservatives look like they would try to break our country the moment they get back into power and then serve it up to America.

[GranteedEV]

Parties make democracy weaker. We see that in Alberta where every MLA under the UCP would vote for anything Danielle Smith tells them to, without having any actual input from their constituents.

The NDP, and Greens, and any independent MPs, are the backbone of democracy, and allow us to get policy that actually works for Canadians.

Quite frankly the conservatives have no business being so popular but they have money and sadly, with money comes political strength

[MrButtons]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Parties make democracy weaker. We see that in Alberta where every MLA under the UCP would vote for anything Danielle Smith tells them to, without having any actual input from their constituents.

The NDP, and Greens, and any independent MPs, are the backbone of democracy, and allow us to get policy that actually works for Canadians.

Quite frankly the conservatives have no business being so popular but they have money and sadly, with money comes political strength

My heart skipped a beat here before I read the rest. Definitely thought it was veering towards recommending like, a monarchy, not a grassroots government.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by MrButtons

My heart skipped a beat here before I read the rest. Definitely thought it was veering towards recommending like, a monarchy, not a grassroots government.

Really?

I thought he was going to say "Direct Democracy". If we cannot trust our parties and representatives to represent us then we should use all of this technology that we have to build a secure democracy platform that triggers direct votes within the population.

We could even keep the representatives to do paperwork and bring forth motions and use the platform to trigger immediate approval votes or recall petitions if the representative veers away from their stated promises that they ran on.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Wolven

A CPC led by "anyone but Sheer" likely would have won in 2019. After the SNC-Lavalin drama the Liberals were ripe for a loss but Sheer is simply unelectable as the leader of the party because of his positions on abortion and gay marriage. Unfortunately, there really wasn't a good option in that leadership race with the finalists coming down to Sheer, O'Toole, and Bernier.

Similarly, if MacKay had replaced Sheer instead of O'Toole, the CPC likely would have won that election as well. In the leadership race O'Toole said too many things that pandered to the fringe elements of the party and when the Liberals rolled those quotes out in the election he was toast.

In each case, it wasn't so much that Trudeau won the election as much as it was that the CPC couldn't win. They keep trying to reopen social issues that Canada has no interest in changing course on (abortion, gay marriage, etc.). The guy who wins the leadership of the CPC likely does so by signaling support for the more extreme elements of the party and then cannot win a general election.

Now that Carney is eating their lunch, so to speak, and is doing so while being calm and reserved and not needing to go out and say dumb things on right wing podcasts, it is going to be impossible for someone like PP to beat him in an election. With the way the CPC is built they will never be able to elect a moderate or reasonable leader like Carney which really just leaves them in a dead-end.

Look at who is lining up to replace PP. Kenney? Ford? Pretty poor alternatives to Carney. Kenney got chased out of Alberta and Ford was just placated by Carney with a slice of pizza.

What Doug Ford does is he shuts down the loonies in the party.

The Conservatives can easily win elections outside of 'we are sick of the Liberals' elections if they are willing to shut those people down and just run on a conservative fiscal platform.

In Ontario - that has resulted in a few right wing parties being formed and getting next to no votes. New Blue party got 1.6% and Ontario party got 0.6%.

Federal (and Alberta for that matter) Conservatives are both scarred by past splits killing them (federally - the Reform party, Alberta with Wild Rose), so they placate the loonies and hope for the best. It works out in Alberta but not so much federally.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

What Doug Ford does is he shuts down the loonies in the party.

The Conservatives can easily win elections outside of 'we are sick of the Liberals' elections if they are willing to shut those people down and just run on a conservative fiscal platform.

In Ontario - that has resulted in a few right wing parties being formed and getting next to no votes. New Blue party got 1.6% and Ontario party got 0.6%.

Federal (and Alberta for that matter) Conservatives are both scarred by past splits killing them (federally - the Reform party, Alberta with Wild Rose), so they placate the loonies and hope for the best. It works out in Alberta but not so much federally.

A big part of how Ford is able to shut down the loonies in his party is that Ontario did not fall into the "unite the right" trap. As bad as his party is, they are closer aligned to the legacy PC parties that no longer exist elsewhere.

Alberta is unfortunately stubborn and slow to learn. Our conservatives not only fell into the "unite the right" trap but then they allowed the far right to completely take over the government and a lot of Alberta wasn't paying attention until it was too late. Now we have a governing party that is grifting billions of our dollars away and setting us on a crash course with separation with the support of a hostile foreign nation.

Assuming we can survive Smith's government, Alberta's example will destroy trust in conservative parties.

Also, "conservative fiscal" doesn't mean anything. Unless you mean stealing our money and gifting it to billionaires or "friends of the party".

[Wormius]

So what are the odds PP is booted?

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Wormius

So what are the odds PP is booted?

Pretty low I think. If there's one thing modern conservatives do it's double down on bad bets

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The Conservatives can easily win elections outside of 'we are sick of the Liberals' elections if they are willing to shut those people down and just run on a conservative fiscal platform.

Can they? They can sometimes win re-election (Harper and Mulroney) but they cannot get in without Liberal fatigue and when they're out it takes over a decade for them to get back in.

Originally Posted by Wormius

So what are the odds PP is booted?

Next to none. They changed the rules to insulate him and keep the decision in the hands of far right Albertan religious demagogues.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by wormius

so what are the odds pp is booted?

0%

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Wormius

So what are the odds PP is booted?

As in he fails to get 50%+1 of the vote? IMO the odds are less then 1%... probably less then 0.1%. I think the odds are only marginally better that he fails to get whatever his own internal threshold is for staying on. (I assume it's probably 65%+ or something like that).

[Johnny Makarov]

The deplorable and his deplorable delegates won't let him lose.

The question is how many floor crossers this weekend?

I'm guessing 2 which will give Carney a majority.

[Jason14h]

I do wonder if they want to keep PP until closer to an election and boot him after seeing the post Trudeau boost for Carney

Until the liberals start screwing up or NDP start taking some of their voting base there honestly isn’t too much any Con leader can do right now. Carney already implemented their biggest talking points - there’s nothing to bitch about this early into their 4 years

Now if the economy is in a full blown recession in 2 years , the NDP gains some traction again , and the cons boot PP for a new face close to election maybe you change the voting momentum from where it’s been the last 6 months

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I do wonder if they want to keep PP until closer to an election and boot him after seeing the post Trudeau boost for Carney

Until the liberals start screwing up or NDP start taking some of their voting base there honestly isn’t too much any Con leader can do right now. Carney already implemented their biggest talking points - there’s nothing to bitch about this early into their 4 years

Now if the economy is in a full blown recession in 2 years , the NDP gains some traction again , and the cons boot PP for a new face close to election maybe you change the voting momentum from where it’s been the last 6 months

This is the exact conservative mentality that allowed Trudeau to defeat Sheer in an election where Trudeau was vulnerable to being beaten. At the time Sheer was simply meant to be a placeholder for the post-Harper party to hang out and let the party lick their wounds. They thought they would have years before another election so it did not matter that Sheer was unelectable.

If the party sticks with PP after his epic loss last election, it is really a signal that the CPC is a lost cause and that they value ideology and grifts over credibility. (Hence, he will easily survive the leadership review)

This works for the Liberals as I can imagine Carney dog walking PP into a majority Liberal government, either through floor crossings or a snap election.

If Carney pulls the trigger on an election this year and resets the clock on the next election that will buy him time to get through these turbulent geopolitical times, the potential depression that America is trying to kick off, and more time for the new trade partnerships with the EU and Asia to strengthen and replace the trade that used to go south.

However, I think Carney would wait to see if the US has midterms and what the results are before he does anything close to calling an election.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I do wonder if they want to keep PP until closer to an election and boot him after seeing the post Trudeau boost for Carney

Until the liberals start screwing up or NDP start taking some of their voting base there honestly isn’t too much any Con leader can do right now. Carney already implemented their biggest talking points - there’s nothing to bitch about this early into their 4 years

Now if the economy is in a full blown recession in 2 years , the NDP gains some traction again , and the cons boot PP for a new face close to election maybe you change the voting momentum from where it’s been the last 6 months

What do you think would happen if the CPC MPs started to denounce the Alberta separatists?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I do wonder if they want to keep PP until closer to an election and boot him after seeing the post Trudeau boost for Carney

Until the liberals start screwing up or NDP start taking some of their voting base there honestly isn’t too much any Con leader can do right now. Carney already implemented their biggest talking points - there’s nothing to bitch about this early into their 4 years

Now if the economy is in a full blown recession in 2 years , the NDP gains some traction again , and the cons boot PP for a new face close to election maybe you change the voting momentum from where it’s been the last 6 months

What if they keep Poilievre and we end up with a spring election though? That seems like it’s in the cards, and basically Carney would mop the floor with the CPC at this point.

[Geraldsh]

I spoke to some people from Three Hills who say PP won’t win that riding a second time because they got a close-up look at his representative skills.