Recall the UCP and other activist responses

[Caged Great]

For example, going door to door when it’s icy is both hazardous but also it simply slows you down. So instead of being able to do 100 houses in 2hours with a small team, you might only get 55-60.

[Caged Great]

All that being said, I would be somewhat shocked if he retained his seat. The amount of anger at him is palpable.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

All that being said, I would be somewhat shocked if he retained his seat. The amount of anger at him is palpable.

That's what I'm hopeful for; the recalls efforts may very well speak to the reasonable people in these areas enough that a good deal of those who voted UCP last time don't next go-around, and those who weren't motivated to get out and do vote next time for the NDP candidate instead.

[calgarygeologist]

Calgary-Bow recall petition failed to get enough signatures.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Calgary-Bow recall petition failed to get enough signatures.

For shame, Calgary Bow. For shame.

[iggy_oi]

Water is wet

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

For shame, Calgary Bow. For shame.

Basically needed every other house.

[iggy_oi]

The recall legislation is set up in a manor where the chances of success are basically <5%.

[troutman]

cg will still stop by to tell us every time a petition fails. They were always known to be long shots, and not exactly what they are about.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by troutman

cg will still stop by to tell us every time a petition fails. They were always known to be long shots, and not exactly what they are about.

What do you think they are about?

I’m asking seriously because I genuinely respect your opinion.

My opinion is that a lot of people are failing to understand the potential ramifications of embarking on multiple campaigns that are destined to fail like this.

[Looch City]

They're about sending a message. It's about being heard. It's also about showing the UCP that this recall policy is ridiculous and using their own policy against them.

What "potential ramifications" are there? This could be the end of Canada as we know it?

God forbid some citizens dicide to stand up to this UCP-Wildrose madness!

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Looch City

They're about sending a message. It's about being heard. It's also about showing the UCP that this recall policy is ridiculous and using their own policy against them.

Who said anything about respecting your opinion?

Just kidding looch

What "potential ramifications" are there? This could be the end of Canada as we know it?

God forbid some citizens dicide to stand up to this UCP-Wildrose madness!

The ramifications are that the loss emboldens the other side and gets manipulated to sway those who are on the fence. Which keeps us in the same mess over the long run.

Whose supporters do you think have more money and resources available to spread their spin on this and manipulate voters? The UCP or the NDP?

It also wastes financial resources and for lack of a better term sweat equity that could contribute to more sensible ways of getting actual results. Burning out volunteers and supporters isn’t beneficial in achieving long term success.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

The ramifications are that the loss emboldens the other side and gets manipulated to sway those who are on the fence. Which keeps us in the same mess over the long run.

Whose supporters do you think have more money and resources available to spread their spin on this and manipulate voters? The UCP or the NDP?

It also wastes financial resources and for lack of a better term sweat equity that could contribute to more sensible ways of getting actual results. Burning out volunteers and supporters isn’t beneficial in achieving long term success.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the big question is what alternative courses of action could that sweat equity have been applied to instead? I think the realistic alternative was probably nothing.

One of the dumbest people I've ever seen just managed to convert an embarassingly incompetent petition failure into an election win. There are upsides here in terms of building connections and mobilizing volunteers. Running a campaign is not easy and there is a lot of learning on the fly - most candidates have to lose a few times before they break through. This is a free ($500?) opportunity for a bit of a campaign exercise. And while you're not supposed to copy info from a recall petition, I don't think there's anything against making your own list while you're door knocking of probable and potential votes to bolster heading into the next election.


The thing I found interesting/surprising is how worried it seemed to make the UCP, even though it seemed obvious from the start that these were unlikely to even get close.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the big question is what alternative courses of action could that sweat equity have been applied to instead? I think the realistic alternative was probably nothing.

In my opinion you don’t waste manpower just for the sake of using it, especially when it comes to activism because losses after giving it your all can be devastating for morale and cause a lot of people to give up on the fight. Most of these volunteers also didn’t have a financial motive for taking on the challenge which is an important factor to consider. In the next election I don’t think that is going to be the case for the people volunteering for the party they were trying to get recalled.

If the goal was to ensure that the UCP doesn’t win a majority in the next election I think focusing on strategic protests and smart ad campaigns would have been a better option in my opinion. Because it wouldn’t have given the UCP an irrefutable fact to use as ammo against their opponents on the campaign trail in the next election.

Saying hundreds of thousands of Albertans participated in dozens of protests over the last few years has a better chance of influencing someone to vote against a party than saying we ran a bunch of recall campaigns that didn’t get anywhere near the required number of signatures does. The UCP can’t use the former to their advantage either.

One of the dumbest people I've ever seen just managed to convert an embarassingly incompetent petition failure into an election win.

Yeah I live in his riding. At the provincial level a lot of these candidates aren’t going to have the same benefits he did like having 6 other no-names to split the vote or the lack of an incumbent running. In my opinion it’s unlikely he would have won had our previous councillor(whom I wasn’t a fan of) ran in the election. Didn’t hurt that despite running as an independent his political views are in line with what his constituents historically have usually voted for. Maybe you’re right but I think your argument is highly influenced by a confirmation bias. Also, I don’t think his performance thus far on council is going to do much to convince anyone to vote for someone just because they ran an unsuccessful recall campaign.

There are upsides here in terms of building connections and mobilizing volunteers. Running a campaign is not easy and there is a lot of learning on the fly - most candidates have to lose a few times before they break through. This is a free ($500?) opportunity for a bit of a campaign exercise. And while you're not supposed to copy info from a recall petition, I don't think there's anything against making your own list while you're door knocking of probable and potential votes to bolster heading into the next election.

I’m not saying there are no positives, I just don’t think they outweigh the negatives when taking into consideration the opponent and what’s at stake. Risk vs reward.

The thing I found interesting/surprising is how worried it seemed to make the UCP, even though it seemed obvious from the start that these were unlikely to even get close.

It gave them a pretty great opportunity to play the victims, who persevered, and now they have the opportunity to brag about how little support there was for change.

[Toast_Man]

Just because it didn't pass, doesn't mean it was a win for UCP. I live in the riding and people are much more aware of who Nicolaides is now. He only won his seat by 600 votes and this recall petition definitely is a knock on his reputation. Anecdotal, but I've talked to multiple parents who voted for him in 2023 that signed the petition. He won't be getting those votes back.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

In my opinion you don’t waste manpower just for the sake of using it, especially when it comes to activism because losses after giving it your all can be devastating for morale and cause a lot of people to give up on the fight. Most of these volunteers also didn’t have a financial motive for taking on the challenge which is an important factor to consider. In the next election I don’t think that is going to be the case for the people volunteering for the party they were trying to get recalled.

If the goal was to ensure that the UCP doesn’t win a majority in the next election I think focusing on strategic protests and smart ad campaigns would have been a better option in my opinion. Because it wouldn’t have given the UCP an irrefutable fact to use as ammo against their opponents on the campaign trail in the next election.

Saying hundreds of thousands of Albertans participated in dozens of protests over the last few years has a better chance of influencing someone to vote against a party than saying we ran a bunch of recall campaigns that didn’t get anywhere near the required number of signatures does. The UCP can’t use the former to their advantage either.

Ad campaigns cost lots of money and protests are just yelling into the void. "a lot of people protested" is not a strong message at all and for most Albertans it just evokes an image of purple-haired greenpeace freaks.

Every report related to a recall campaign starting was a free ad reminding people of the UCP's gross use of the NWC. Every report of a recall failing is the same thing.

Deplorables don't need any reason to be emboldened these days. Most sane people knew this was an impossible bar to clear. But some less informed fence-sitters have probably engaged (maybe even just subconsciously) with a political thought halfway through this term, which is actually a massive achievement.

Yeah I live in his riding. At the provincial level a lot of these candidates aren’t going to have the same benefits he did like having 6 other no-names to split the vote or the lack of an incumbent running. In my opinion it’s unlikely he would have won had our previous councillor(whom I wasn’t a fan of) ran in the election. Didn’t hurt that despite running as an independent his political views are in line with what his constituents historically have usually voted for. Maybe you’re right but I think your argument is highly influenced by a confirmation bias. Also, I don’t think his performance thus far on council is going to do much to convince anyone to vote for someone just because they ran an unsuccessful recall campaign.

I think there's a good chance several of these recall targets do not run again. Which would be huge. We saw how toxicity lead many city councillors to leave. Some of these scoundrels still have Grinch sized hearts somewhere deep inside their hateful bodies. Some of them might even have something resembling a conscience and/or are aware of how awful the NWC uses have been. The recall campaigns don't make it so easy for them to just move on and forget that they played a role.

I was skeptical of the recalls before, but I've talked myself into them being totally worthwhile despite their futility.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Ad campaigns cost lots of money and protests are just yelling into the void. "a lot of people protested" is not a strong message at all and for most Albertans it just evokes an image of purple-haired greenpeace freaks.

You don’t think there was money spent on advertising these recall campaigns? You don’t think there’s a value to having people see that the people protesting are like them and not “purple-haired greenpeace freaks”?

Every report related to a recall campaign starting was a free ad reminding people of the UCP's gross use of the NWC. Every report of a recall failing is the same thing.

If you’re saying they essentially cancel each other out I don’t agree with your assessment. One provides hope and the other can be manipulated to harm the movement. The one that happens closest to the election has the greater impact on voters.

Deplorables don't need any reason to be emboldened these days. Most sane people knew this was an impossible bar to clear. But some less informed fence-sitters have probably engaged (maybe even just subconsciously) with a political thought halfway through this term, which is actually a massive achievement.

The “deplorables” are winning right now though. The same fence sitters are getting influenced by separatists and convoy supporters.

Every strategic protest reported could have been used the same way those groups gain support. I’ve seen more videos of long lines at independent Alberta petition stations and people at rallies for the convoy organizers than I ever saw during the recall campaigns. That doesn’t mean that those groups have more support, but it is going to have a bigger influence over people who are on the fence.

I think there's a good chance several of these recall targets do not run again. Which would be huge. We saw how toxicity lead many city councillors to leave. Some of these scoundrels still have Grinch sized hearts somewhere deep inside their hateful bodies. Some of them might even have something resembling a conscience and/or are aware of how awful the NWC uses have been. The recall campaigns don't make it so easy for them to just move on and forget that they played a role.

If you think the UCP are going to develop a conscience because of these recall campaigns I have some ocean front property in Saskatchewan I’d like to sell you. They’re already putting out statements downplaying it and portraying it as a frivolous stunt.

I was skeptical of the recalls before, but I've talked myself into them being totally worthwhile despite their futility.

Well I hope you end up being right but I think you’re really underestimating what the UCP and their donors are capable of with their resources.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Toast_Man

Just because it didn't pass, doesn't mean it was a win for UCP. I live in the riding and people are much more aware of who Nicolaides is now. He only won his seat by 600 votes and this recall petition definitely is a knock on his reputation. Anecdotal, but I've talked to multiple parents who voted for him in 2023 that signed the petition. He won't be getting those votes back.

About 100 of the nearly 1000 signatures I personally collected were people like this.

[TorqueDog]

There's no designing activism around the hope that your opponent will behave honestly. It was well understood that the UCP would spin any outcome. Protesters are 'radicals', they call democratic petitions they don't agree with 'frivolous stunts', and they will call a list of 6,519/16,006 needed signatures saying that they f-cking suck a 'strong mandate to govern'. 40% is not insignificant, especially when a good chunk of those are from people who voted UCP last time.

This was a long shot by design, and the important bit is using the recall campaigns to do the parts that actually matter long-term, because protests do not substitute for door-to-door persuasion in marginal ridings.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

You don’t think there’s a value to having people see that the people protesting are like them and not “purple-haired greenpeace freaks”?

Sure, and that's why the recalls -- the way they're being done -- are a good thing. People see a crowd, a few loud signs, and maybe a handful of weird visuals, and their brain files it under "same old activists", even if the underlying issue is mainstream and legitimate. That's not fair, but it is real. Recalls create face-to-face contact and local legitimacy without needing the street theatre that most people file away as the usual weirdos shouting about the causes célèbre that they're already sick and tired of hearing about. You want people to see that people championing the issue are 'like them', it's hard to think of a better way than a face-to-face dialog from another person who they can have a conversation with, not an exchange of angry slogans on card stock.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

You don’t think there was money spent on advertising these recall campaigns? You don’t think there’s a value to having people see that the people protesting are like them and not “purple-haired greenpeace freaks”?



If you’re saying they essentially cancel each other out I don’t agree with your assessment. One provides hope and the other can be manipulated to harm the movement. The one that happens closest to the election has the greater impact on voters.



The “deplorables” are winning right now though. The same fence sitters are getting influenced by separatists and convoy supporters.

Every strategic protest reported could have been used the same way those groups gain support. I’ve seen more videos of long lines at independent Alberta petition stations and people at rallies for the convoy organizers than I ever saw during the recall campaigns. That doesn’t mean that those groups have more support, but it is going to have a bigger influence over people who are on the fence.



If you think the UCP are going to develop a conscience because of these recall campaigns I have some ocean front property in Saskatchewan I’d like to sell you. They’re already putting out statements downplaying it and portraying it as a frivolous stunt.



Well I hope you end up being right but I think you’re really underestimating what the UCP and their donors are capable of with their resources.

It's not about growing a conscience - but these are still human beings, and many of them have spouses and kids and friends and extended family, and I bet a bunch of these MLAs have been admonished by people they respect and/or care about. Or their spouses have been admonished (which is probably the most powerful way to get someone to not run again). Keeping this news cycle going in any form makes it harder to forget about that and write it off as just following orders.


Under the current electoral maps the path to victory is clear and simple. 12 battleground ridings were decided by 867 votes or less last time. All 12 were blue in 2019, and the NDP flipped 6/12 in 2023. They need to win 12/12 next time. The 6 ridings they did not win all have recall campaigns right now. One of those is the Nathan Neudorf thing in Lethbridge, which should help cement that riding for NDP (new maps are also better for NDP).

New electoral maps make it a bit more complicated, but it's still about winning enough battleground ridings, and the recalls are going to help that effort locally. Who cares if failing recalls is bad vibes in the bigger picture - if the UCP weren't spouting bull#### related to recalls then they'd be spouting it about something else.


UCP are better resourced and have more delusional+idealogical ####s willing to volunteer in service of their hateful politics. The centrist/progressive side of spectrum doesn't have the same kool-aid drinking cult, and it's a lot harder to mobilize normal non-weirdo people who are not necessarily dedicated to a single party. I suspect most people involved in these recall campaigns are already politically involved, but I think supporting a recall campaign may be a more accessible baby-step for a lot of others who have thought about volunteering for ANDP but not yet followed through.