Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[activeStick]

Why isn't Trump at the WEF? Would've been perfect to see him speak after Carney lol.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Why isn't Trump at the WEF? Would've been perfect to see him speak after Carney lol.

He’s travelling there tonight and will be there tomorrow. He’s going to discuss Greenland and according to him the Europeans are going to “love it”.

[schteve_d]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Damn. What a speech.

It was. I am curious and maybe a little concerned about the American, Trump's, reaction to it.

Very little was veiled there. The entire world knows exactly what, and who, Carney was talking about.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

It was. I am curious and maybe a little concerned about the American, Trump's, reaction to it.

Very little was veiled there. The entire world knows exactly what, and who, Carney was talking about.

That’s exactly the point. We need to stop worrying about what Trump’s reaction is. “It is the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.”

[schteve_d]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

That’s exactly the point. We need to stop worrying about what Trump’s reaction is. “It is the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.”

Fair. Agent Orange is prone to knee-jerk decisions and can initiate a punishing response almost immediately. I agree with everything that Carney said, but that path forward, which I fully support, is not a bowl of instant oatmeal.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

He’s travelling there tonight and will be there tomorrow. He’s going to discuss Greenland and according to him the Europeans are going to “love it”.

Wouldn't it be great if his flight crashed into the Atlantic Ocean and his body is never found ??

Probably can't tell if it's whale or human during the search.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

Fair. Agent Orange is prone to knee-jerk decisions and can initiate a punishing response almost immediately. I agree with everything that Carney said, but that path forward, which I fully support, is not a bowl of instant oatmeal.

I agree, it's scary for Canada to dictate it's own course with a capricious mental midget who bases his decisions on petty grievances and is a full time bully who is also the most thin skinned human in history. However, it's the only path forward for us.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

It was. I am curious and maybe a little concerned about the American, Trump's, reaction to it.

Very little was veiled there. The entire world knows exactly what, and who, Carney was talking about.

Some of the European leaders said much worse things about him over the last two days, and he’s barely acknowledged any of it. So I doubt that Carney’s speech even registered. I was reading earlier that Trump’s speech tomorrow is of course going be all about him and the “amazing accomplishments he’s made over the last year.”

He also said something towards the end his insane rambling today about coming up with a deal on Greenland that “NATO will love” or something along those lines. Whatever he says tomorrow, I’m sure it’s gonna be incredibly stupid and disrespectful towards Europe.

[Codes]

That was an inspiring speech. The beginning of the middle power superpower?

[Hemi-Cuda]

Finally got around to watching his speech, and it's probably fair to say it's one of the best speeches any Canadian leader has made in the last few decades. I especially appreciate his point about having to look for trading partners pragmatically, accepting that they won't share all of our values, but it's necessary to take the world as it is and not how we want it to be. It's so goddamn refreshing to have an adult at the head of the table again after so long

[flames_fan_down_under]

I wonder if that speech will end up having an influence on some Conservative MPs who are on the fence about their career with PP as their leader.

[Chingas]

It's a great speach. I wish only to have a leader that actually follows or believes in what he preaches. He has slowly shown to be a leader that is repairing Canada rather than one that just spews platitudes. I however struggle to be fully on board while he clings to the gun "buy back" dispute all of its flaws and inaccurate gaslighting just to retain Quebec votes. Time to take down the rest of the signs and let us move forward as one without the false virtue signalling. It honestly wouldn't take carney much to get 25% more of the total vote by recognizing the reluctance of a large portion of the moderate vote.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Youtube comments on that speech are full of praise from non-Canadians, and it's picking up quite a bit of steam on reddit too

https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comm...eys_speech_at/

What does PP do now after watching that and seeing the reaction? If he had any sort of humility or ability for self-reflection he would have to step down and quietly slink away, but of course that won't happen. I wonder if the calls to axe him from the leadership start to get louder now from within his own house, the con rank & file have to see that they'd be in for an historic embarrassment if they kept PP on for another election don't they?

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Chingas

I however struggle to be fully on board while he clings to the gun "buy back" dispute all of its flaws and inaccurate gaslighting just to retain Quebec votes. Time to take down the rest of the signs and let us move forward as one without the false virtue signalling. It honestly wouldn't take carney much to get 25% more of the total vote by recognizing the reluctance of a large portion of the moderate vote.

If we're going to talk about "taking signs down", maybe start by not turning a niche gripe into the moral purity test for the entire national project.

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

What does PP do now after watching that and seeing the reaction? If he had any sort of humility or ability for self-reflection he would have to step down and quietly slink away, but of course that won't happen. I wonder if the calls to axe him from the leadership start to get louder now from within his own house, the con rank & file have to see that they'd be in for an historic embarrassment if they kept PP on for another election don't they?

I feel that introspection isn’t a strong point for him or the party. I’d bet that he’ll get the support to stay on as leader. The CPC faithful, especially at an Alberta convention, will make sure of it.

[direwolf]

Did a quick search of the major U.S. news sites, and other than a tiny blurb on AP News, I didn't see anything on Carney's speech whatsoever. So it appears it didn't get much play at all in the U.S.

Glad to see it's being praised online at least.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Did a quick search of the major U.S. news sites, and other than a tiny blurb on AP News, I didn't see anything on Carney's speech whatsoever. So it appears it didn't get much play at all in the U.S.

Glad to see it's being praised online at least.

MSNBC was all over it, granted they are left leaning so it plays well with them, virtually all the non Trump Republicans are using it as an example of the damage Trump is doing on their podcasts

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Did a quick search of the major U.S. news sites, and other than a tiny blurb on AP News, I didn't see anything on Carney's speech whatsoever. So it appears it didn't get much play at all in the U.S.

Glad to see it's being praised online at least.

The New York Times (small community paper in NYC) had 3 articles on it and published the full transcript of the speech. So there is that.

In other news, I am glad the conservatives online are rallying, they have settled on it was an awful speech as the critique. They seemed rattled at first and did not really comment on the speech for the fist 6-7 hours after it was given. I am sure this will slowly morph to handwringing if Trump criticizes Canada in any way over the coming days. The Quislings stand ready to serve and are having their convention this weekend.

[Smartcar]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Did a quick search of the major U.S. news sites, and other than a tiny blurb on AP News, I didn't see anything on Carney's speech whatsoever. So it appears it didn't get much play at all in the U.S.

Glad to see it's being praised online at least.

It was on the homepage of the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/w...smid=url-share

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Sure, but delinquencies lead to almost total losses, whereas bonds can be bought by American buyers, other foreign buyers, and the Federal Reserve. For instance, the Federal Reserve bought the equivalent of the entirety of NATO governments' US Treasury holdings in a 5-week period in 2020.

I'm not saying it wouldn't have a negative impact; it would spike yields and spook the markets. But talk of depression level economic devastation isn't really based in reality.

And even setting aside the potential effects of that kind of move, the whole idea of a coordinated instant sell off isn't realistic. If NATO countries sold off enough bonds to spike the yield significantly, by it's nature it means they're selling them for a significantly lower value while also likely weakening the US dollar (which the bonds are denominated in). Are they going to cannabilize their own cash reserves, reduce their income when trading goods in USD, and likely spike their own bond yields over something like Greenland? I doubt it.

What I expect would (and probably will even if the US doesn't push the envelope further) is a slower sell off of US Treasuries by foreign governments. It has already been happening over the last two decades as the share of treasuries held by foreign entities has dropped by nearly half since 2008. This will probably increase in pace in the coming years. China has reduced its US Treasury holdings by half in the last decade and other countries might start to do the same at a faster pace.

No, they do not results in total losses. In the event of a delinquency, the bank still has a tangible asset in the house and underlying land, which has value because house prices didn’t go to zero. In fact, the government bought the junk bonds and has since made money on the transactions (not a great return, but it wasn’t a “total loss”).

All of this didn’t stop the collapse. It’s no different with the treasury bonds. You’re again underrating the hysteria that mass selloffs produce and assuming that institutional investors just sit by and watch it happen.

That said, I totally agree that the far most likely path is a slower sell off. I just don’t think it’s fair to write off that NATO could have a large effect on the US if it started selling off US Treasuries.