Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

Just to put that 50k Chinese EV's in perspective, in 2025 Canadians bought ~26,700 EV's. China selling all 50k into Canada is unlikely for a few years, outside chance in 2027, probably likely in 2028.


EDIT numbers fixed below

[opendoor]

For all the coverage this is getting, it's basically just a return to 2023's status quo, but with a cap on imports instead of a free for all that existed back then. My guess is, we'll just see a return to that where cars that already exist here (Tesla, Polestar, etc) are sourced from China, at least to start.

In 2023 for instance, Canada imported $2.2B of Chinese-made EVs which is roughly equivalent to the 50K cap this deal has. So the current policy is more restrictive than before. If we didn't see BYD and other Chinese automakers enter the market then, I'm not sure we will now.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Just to put that 50k Chinese EV's in perspective, in 2025 Canadians bought ~26,700 EV's. China selling all 50k into Canada is unlikely for a few years, outside chance in 2027, probably likely in 2028.

That doesn't seem right. There were about 200K EVs sold in Canada in 2024, and while it did drop in 2025, I can't imagine it dropped by that much.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Just to put that 50k Chinese EV's in perspective, in 2025 Canadians bought ~26,700 EV's. China selling all 50k into Canada is unlikely for a few years, outside chance in 2027, probably likely in 2028.

Bro I'm buying 5 for just myself.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by opendoor

For all the coverage this is getting, it's basically just a return to 2023's status quo, but with a cap on imports instead of a free for all that existed back then. My guess is, we'll just see a return to that where cars that already exist here (Tesla, Polestar, etc) are sourced from China, at least to start.

In 2023 for instance, Canada imported $2.2B of Chinese-made EVs which is roughly equivalent to the 50K cap this deal has. So the current policy is more restrictive than before. If we didn't see BYD and other Chinese automakers enter the market then, I'm not sure we will now.

That doesn't seem right. There were about 200K EVs sold in Canada in 2024, and while it did drop in 2025, I can't imagine it dropped by that much.

It's not! I didn't notice that was just Q3, from here:

https://electricautonomy.ca/data-tra...-sales-canada/

Past 4 quarters are about 147,400. Thanks for catching that.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=2010002501

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by opendoor

That doesn't seem right. There were about 200K EVs sold in Canada in 2024, and while it did drop in 2025, I can't imagine it dropped by that much.

That's because it isn't close to being right at all and Fuzz is just pulling numbers out of his ass. His number is essentially the quarterly volume of sales during 2025.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

That's because it isn't close to being right at all and Fuzz is just pulling numbers out of his ass. His number is essentially the quarterly volume of sales during 2025.

Thanks, dip####.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

That's because it isn't close to being right at all and Fuzz is just pulling numbers out of his ass. His number is essentially the quarterly volume of sales during 2025.

You would know a thing or two about pulling numbers out of one's own ass. lol

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Thanks, dip####.

Anything to combat your misinformation.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Anything to combat your misinformation.

You drinkin' this early?

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You drinkin' this early?

Neat.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Anything to combat your misinformation.

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Neat.

The hard stuff, eh?

[MrButtons]

I don't know much about this and those of you more informed might help me understand - but it seems as though the EV was conceded to lower the Canola tariffs. Probably more complex than this - anything I'm missing?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yeah, you're still not getting it. Defending Quebec's traditional culture, expecting immigrants to assimilate, and restricting religious symbols from public sector workers are not divisive, right-wing policies in Quebec. They're broadly popular, and supported by all major parties in the province.

The stuff Poilievre pushes - anti-vaxx, anti-trans, pro-guns, pro-Trump - are considered divisive and right wing.

Legault's mistep was like an NDP leader going on about climate change while most of his supporters were concerned about inflation. It's not that they wouldn't share his views on climate change, it's that they don't want it to be front and centre when they're worried about the cost of groceries.

I’m getting it just fine, I’m not sure you are.

Nanos suggested that Legault focus more on culture war issues and less on jobs cost him. Nobody has suggested that people from Quebec are largely rejecting his particularly stance on these culture war issues, all that has been suggested is that they didn’t like the shift in focus.

You and FB are interpreting that one way and arguing against that interpretation. Which is fine, but who is this for outside of defeating the position you’ve created in your head?

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by MrButtons

I don't know much about this and those of you more informed might help me understand - but it seems as though the EV was conceded to lower the Canola tariffs. Probably more complex than this - anything I'm missing?

and the seafood tariffs for the East Coast.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I don't think that's a very good deal for Canada. We trade a low value good to have a 15% tariff for a 6.1% on a finished product that our local market can't compete with. China thinks in much longer time frames than we do and they just got us to step in the pool and let them fit an anvil on our head.

I think what we see on the face of this deal isn’t what it will be in a year from now. Good on Carney for opening up the canola market in China again, although it would be nice to get rid of the now 15% tariff. However, there is a tariff on the Chinese EVs as well, and more importantly, a cap on the number of EVs.

I think the cap on the EVs is the key to helping us continue to negotiate with the US. If things don’t go well, we can adjust or remove the cap. Although that would likely have an impact on the auto sector in Ontario.

Just my opinion, but I think Carney at least made steps forward from where we were at before these meetings.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by MrButtons

I don't know much about this and those of you more informed might help me understand - but it seems as though the EV was conceded to lower the Canola tariffs. Probably more complex than this - anything I'm missing?

Basically. More or less it's a return to the pre-2024 status quo but with a couple of restrictions:

1) China maintains a 15% tariff on Canadian canola imports, whereas I don't believe there was any tariff before 2024. Though there were non-tariff issues, like when several large Canadian companies were banned from sending canola to China as a fallout from the Meng Wanzhou thing.

2) Canada has capped the number of Chinese vehicles that can be imported under the 6.1% tariff, whereas before 2024 there was no cap.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by opendoor

For all the coverage this is getting, it's basically just a return to 2023's status quo, but with a cap on imports instead of a free for all that existed back then. My guess is, we'll just see a return to that where cars that already exist here (Tesla, Polestar, etc) are sourced from China, at least to start.

In 2023 for instance, Canada imported $2.2B of Chinese-made EVs which is roughly equivalent to the 50K cap this deal has. So the current policy is more restrictive than before. If we didn't see BYD and other Chinese automakers enter the market then, I'm not sure we will now.




That doesn't seem right. There were about 200K EVs sold in Canada in 2024, and while it did drop in 2025, I can't imagine it dropped by that much.

Don't they have to be low value cars? Polestar doesn't have a low value car (at least here), Tesla could perhaps but their brand is in the trash here.

[Johnny Makarov]

Canola tariffs was at 84% and now dropped to 15%.

Wow also no Visa for Cdns travelling to China. My wife and I have Chinese citizenship but our kids don't.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

and the seafood tariffs for the East Coast.

So in addition to paying an extortionate amount for the Lobster itself, what? You have to stuff a $20 in it's claw before you eat it?