Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Can't qwhite put my finger on the difference between these two groups...

Perception of reality is funny, because I think they mean to imply that people asking for solidarity, justice and climate action is scary. While a group of 'tough' people that stand in formation is not.

I am for solidarity, justice and climate action.

And I think people who randomly stand in intimidating formations can be, intimidating.

additionally, I think it might be disingenuous to say there is any organized group of Albertans saying 'we heart Maduro', I actually haven't heard that from a single person, let alone a group.

[Jimmy Stang]

So the latest opinion poll on Alberta separation is out.

https://researchco.ca/2026/01/08/alberta-separation-3/

TLDR: 31% of Albertans are separatists, and 24% of Albertans would like rather become a state of the US. Assuming the two segments have considerable overlap, the Alberta sovereignty movement is largely a 51st state movement.

The greatest risk of even a failed referendum on separation is that the US will see that a not-insignificant number of people want to join them, call BS on our electoral system and claim the sentiment to be even higher, throw in some nonsense about fentanyl, and use it as a pretext for further coercion of Canada or even "liberation" of these poor, oppressed minority (and the oil).

Given the words and actions of the current regime in the US, it can't be ignored that Alberta is the easiest way to destabilize Canada. The UCP has enabled the separatist movement tremendously, and according to their own president, is essentially a separatist party with up to 75% of members being separatists.

Jason Kenney's downfall was that he was a "Canadian" and refused to bow to the hard-right of the party, despite being responsible for inviting them into the "big tent". The tent is theirs now, and Smith won't draw a line because she is one of them.

The proportion of Albertans who are in favour of sovereignty has increased over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 31% of Albertans support Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada, up nine points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2023.

Just over three-in-five Albertans (62%, -9) are opposed to independence, while 7% (=) are undecided.

“By a 2-to-1 margin, Albertans currently express a desire to remain in Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Still, the growth of separatist sentiment is significant across some groups.”

More than two-in-five Albertans aged 18-to-34 (42%, +15) support Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada. The proportions are lower among those aged 35-to-54 (27%, +2) and those aged 55 and over (25%, +9).

Separatist feelings rose across all three major regions of the province. More than three-in-ten residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area (31%, +5) voice support for an independent Alberta, along with 29% of residents of the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (+5) and 34% of those who live elsewhere in the province (+11).

Albertans who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the 2023 provincial election are significantly more likely to back independence (40%, +11) than those who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (11%, +2).

In a separate question, just under one-in-four Albertans (24%, +5) support their province joining the United States, while more than seven-in-ten (72%, -2) disagree and 5% (-2) are not sure.

The notion of Alberta becoming an American state is more popular among Albertans aged 18-to-34 (32%), those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (27%) and UCP voters in the 2023 provincial election (29%).

[Fuzz]

I had read a plausible situation someone wrote about. Alberta has a separation vote and loses. The separatists claim voting irregularities and all the games they play in the US. Trump steps in claiming it was a rigged vote, the majority of Albertans want to separate, and fully support militarily the annexation of Alberta. Kinda like Russia did in Ukraine. Twice.


This is why you never give these mother####ers an inch. The risks are too high. This is why you don't vote for Danielle Smith, because this is her ultimate goal.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You can tell because this is what the actual separatists look like:





https://pressprogress.ca/the-alberta...-apart-canada/


Gettin' things done.

So many Mrfevers and geologists from Calgary!

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Someone needs to report the proximity of those oil well donkeys to that barn. The regs say 100m is the minimum.

Gonna need to see a visual impact assessment on those as well.


Can't get things done without one!

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I had read a plausible situation someone wrote about. Alberta has a separation vote and loses. The separatists claim voting irregularities and all the games they play in the US. Trump steps in claiming it was a rigged vote, the majority of Albertans want to separate, and fully support militarily the annexation of Alberta. Kinda like Russia did in Ukraine. Twice.

This is why you never give these mother####ers an inch. The risks are too high. This is why you don't vote for Danielle Smith, because this is her ultimate goal.

And because we're likely to have a referendum before the next general election, this is actually a lot more dire than people realize. I don't think that Smith could put this cat back into the bag, even if she wanted to.

[Fuzz]

She's been leading the effort, she has no interest in putting the cat back in the bag. The Alberta Prosperity panel was her initiative, which had separatist conclusions. She's changed referendum rules multiple times for the sole purpose of helping the separatist referendum. She's moving our federal agencies to provincial ones.

She in no way wants a cat in a bag. I suspect she will call an early election once the separatist petition fails to get enough votes, but she'll add it to the election anyway, because she needs a result that people can claim is faked. She'll say something like "well, even though they had some challenges getting the signatures, we feel this is important enough for Albertans to have a say, so we are going to add the question to the ballot." It will probably be confusingly worded. She is all in on this. None of her words or actions have indicated otherwise. To not acknowledge she is a separatist is to blindly ignore reality.

[Roughneck]

'Even though we are the ones who changed the rules around voting in the name of reducing election fraud, we are incompetent so there is obviously a lot of election fraud and this result doesn't count.'

[woob]

It's amazing (but not surprising) to me that people look to what's going on in the US and think "Yeah, I want to be a part of that!"

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by woob

It's amazing (but not surprising) to me that people look to what's going on in the US and think "Yeah, I want to be a part of that!"

Albertans are dumb as rocks. I mean unless you have a brain injury or a Grade 3 education or need help wiping your own ass why would you vote for Kenney or Busboobs the past 2 elections. effing morons.

[TheIronMaiden]

80% of people I talk to who are "pro separation" actually just want to send a message. The other 20% are grifters I am sure.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Can't qwhite put my finger on the difference between these two groups...

It's not even difficult to spot that these are all American driven initiatives. Maduro? Really? Nobody in Alberta is talking about Palestine and Isreal, that issue is kept alive in the news cycle by Americans. The only people I know that talk about trans at all, are all deeply into Fox and Friends.

It's telling that the same rhetoric is being thrown at people in Quebec, only in French. It's all coming from the Americans.

I've never seen a group of ranchers line up like that unless it's a line dance, and the barn is in need of some serious attention.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Shockingly low "teeth per capita" in this photo, along with some of the straightest family trees you've ever seen.

Also:

Western alienation has declined to a four-year low: poll

OTTAWA — A new poll shows that tensions with Ottawa are declining in all four western provinces, with perceptions of the federal government improving especially rapidly in Alberta.

The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, finds that half of Western Canadians feel the federal government pays attention to their province, the highest result in four years. This includes 53 per cent of British Columbians, 51 per cent of Albertans and 49 per cent of Manitobans.

The one outlier was Saskatchewan, where just 36 per cent said they felt the same way.

Even so, perceptions of Ottawa ticked upward in all four provinces. In Alberta, feelings toward Ottawa improved by 13 points from a low of 38 per cent in late 2023.

Matt Smith, Pollara’s lead for Western Canada, said the numbers show Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy of engagement with the region is working so far.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...-year-low-poll

When even the National Post is saying Ottawa is playing better with the west, it doesn't bode well for these separatist twats.

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

When even the National Post is saying Ottawa is playing better with the west, it doesn't bode well for these separatist twats.

That poll is more in line with my personal perception. In every day conversations, even conservatives seem to concede that Carney is not anti-Alberta and is viewed favourably at the moment.

Some will always remain separatists, and some will modify their Trudeau sticker to say Carney instead and consider them to be the same, despite the major shift in policy.

It is telling that the UCP membership (again, up to 75% separatists by their own president's estimates) was still booing Smith when she made major progress with the MOU. I mean, there are plenty of things to boo her about, but an actual conservative party would have been more pleased with it.

I'll take both polls with a grain of salt. I have lived in Alberta long enough (my whole life) to know that the Ottawa bogeyman (and separation from it), real and perceived, is a tried and true political strategy here, and the UCP rely on it considerably to keep their base from fracturing.

[FireGilbert]

Just came to giggle after finding out there is an actual political party called the Progressive Tories.

Too bad only one party can be called conservative because putting that in your name is a sure fire recipe for Albertan electoral success. We were robbed of an election between the UCP, PC, and New Democratic Conservative parties. Can even throw in the Green Conservatives and Communist Conservatives for fun. The possibilities are endless.

[Manhattanboy]

https://x.com/ABDanielleSmith/status...17223817130213

Smith asks Carney to fast track approval of a pipeline to the coast of NW British Columbia. Intends to submit the proposal by June and hopes for a two month turn around.

Odds of success? <1%?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

https://x.com/ABDanielleSmith/status...17223817130213

Smith asks Carney to fast track approval of a pipeline to the coast of NW British Columbia. Intends to submit the proposal by June and hopes for a two month turn around.

Odds of success? <1%?

Depends on what you consider “success”. If you mean, the pipeline gets fast tracked and added to the major projects list though, I’d say 75%. Here’s why I think that:

- this is the most telegraphed project out there. Everyone on each side knows it’s coming, and they’ve been talking about it for months.
- the stakes for Canada are high, and increasing each day (it seems)
- public opinion (overall) is in favour of more pipelines. Not just in Alberta, but nationally

To me, the major stumbling block is private money. I think that they’re going to get someone to the table, and I’m optimistic on that front. I think the government is going to have to put more money into this than maybe they first intended. Personally, I’m fine with that.

[troutman]

AI Overview
Major stumbling blocks for a new Alberta-to-B.C. coast pipeline include strong Coastal First Nations opposition, the federal Oil Tanker Moratorium Act (especially for the northern coast), the lack of a private proponent/viable project, B.C.'s government stance, and the sheer logistical/environmental challenges of building through rugged terrain to a sensitive coast, requiring massive investment and complex federal/provincial/Indigenous agreements.

[Mr.Coffee]

The pipe is gonna need to be 100% backstopped by the feds, like, almost entirely risk free before you get competent midstreamers willing to step up.

I don’t understand why there is even any debate about a pipeline. This thing like just follow the old plans / ROW / previous routes and shoulda started construction last Feb under emergency federal order.

It’ll be interesting to see how Carney handles this after June, and we’ll have our answer then as to what he really thinks about the States and how much of a “threat” they are. I’m skeptical. It’s our only bargaining chip. No country is coming to save Canada without that pipeline.

[Fuzz]

OK, so about needing this pipeline to save Canada...I'd like some facts on that. I'll get started.

What percent of GDP would this pipeline boost? To get started:
2023: petroleum 7.7% ($209 billion)

I didn't find a breakdown of gas/oil, but the CGA link says gas is ~$6 billion.

A quick check shows the 2023 average price of ~$59 WCS per barrel, so it's probably an OK year as a representative data point for future prices. Maybe a bit high, but fine for this ballpark exercise.

So on exports of 4 MMb/d oil accounts for ~200 billion, or $50 billion per 1MMb/d of export. A new pipeline would bump our GDP by $50 billion per year, or take oil from 7.7% to ~9.5%. So that's what a pipeline is worth. $50 billion a year or 1.8% of GDP.

We can debate the importance of that, and what it means for Canada without it, but I think the facts are enough to show this isn't REQUIRED for Canada to survive as a country. Open to corrections or additions here if I missed anything big.

https://energy-information.canada.ca...5-section6.pdf
https://www.cga.ca/natural-gas-stati...ral-gas-facts/
https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performa...anadian-select