Layoffs in the Oil Patch 3

[Weitz]

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I’ll believe it when I see it.

You think they're just doing it for fun to "liberate" the good people of Venezuela they care so much about (as shown by constantly sending them to torture centres in El Salvador)?

We've seen this playbook in Iraq. They absolutely will be very active in the oil fields.

[Weitz]

Maybe. But you are going to need 5-10 years to get any real flow of oil to the USA. Lots can change in that time.

Companies won’t be jumping to invest there.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Maybe. But you are going to need 5-10 years to get any real flow of oil to the USA. Lots can change in that time.

Companies won’t be jumping to invest there.

I think they will. I agree with Bill, this is pretty identical to the Iraq situation. They had Oil Companies in there and pumping in no time.

Because, frankly, its a good bet that Trump's Oil Company buddies essentially orchestrated this and are using their good buddy and the US Military for their own purposes.

I do wonder what the longer term effects of this will be, I have a lot of 'Oil Refugees' from Venezuela as clients...I wonder if they might consider going back home? Not immediately as they'd probably want the dust to settle, but eventually?

[fotze2]

Who are the big players there who have land (does that matter). Gotta assume the big boys like xom, BP, Shell, Petronas. I heard they could drill under a Venezuelan refinwry and get enough spilled product.

Also Anniversary tomorrow of being punted after a merger in 2021, on my birthday during pandemic, by a turnip HR idiot who hatcheted 85% of staff but didnt know how to use bcc.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Locke

I think they will. I agree with Bill, this is pretty identical to the Iraq situation. They had Oil Companies in there and pumping in no time.

Because, frankly, its a good bet that Trump's Oil Company buddies essentially orchestrated this and are using their good buddy and the US Military for their own purposes.

I do wonder what the longer term effects of this will be, I have a lot of 'Oil Refugees' from Venezuela as clients...I wonder if they might consider going back home? Not immediately as they'd probably want the dust to settle, but eventually?

Well the part that’s not identical is the state of disrepair of the infrastructure there. Some companies were struggling to try to do things there years ago, and now it’s sat for 20 years. It’s a years long project to get that rolling. I’m sure companies will see the profit and with the government backing they will invest, but it’s not happening quickly.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Who are the big players there who have land (does that matter). Gotta assume the big boys like xom, BP, Shell, Petronas. I heard they could drill under a Venezuelan refinwry and get enough spilled product.

Also Anniversary tomorrow of being punted after a merger in 2021, on my birthday during pandemic, by a turnip HR idiot who hatcheted 85% of staff but didnt know how to use bcc.

I don't think any of those companies you mentioned are in Venezuela. I believe the only US company there is Chevron. International players include Total, Eni, Repsol, the Russians, the Chinese and ONGC.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Who are the big players there who have land (does that matter). Gotta assume the big boys like xom, BP, Shell, Petronas. I heard they could drill under a Venezuelan refinwry and get enough spilled product.

Also Anniversary tomorrow of being punted after a merger in 2021, on my birthday during pandemic, by a turnip HR idiot who hatcheted 85% of staff but didnt know how to use bcc.

No US corporation has "land" in the oil and gas sense there. It was all repatriated or expired. There is no legal justification for them to just go in and start extracting. So it will be who the US can convince, at it will only involve international companies if Trump feels the need to diversify to have some leverage later.


And ya, it will take years before a significant amount(enough to displace Alberta) starts to get exported.

[Whynotnow]

And boards,of directors are getting increasingly nervous about investments in places like this. It’s not a slam dunk that companies will line up here, there are real legal implications for the directors.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

No US corporation has "land" in the oil and gas sense there. It was all repatriated or expired. There is no legal justification for them to just go in and start extracting. So it will be who the US can convince, at it will only involve international companies if Trump feels the need to diversify to have some leverage later.


And ya, it will take years before a significant amount(enough to displace Alberta) starts to get exported.

I know. Its hust usually way handier if you have geo staff who is familiar. Its just a huge undertaking for a new group to go into a country in south america not familiar with geology, regulatory, land, supply chains, egress for product, etc. i get anxiety thinkimg about it, so existing companies make sense for obvious reasons.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don't think any of those companies you mentioned are in Venezuela. I believe the only US company there is Chevron. International players include Total, Eni, Repsol, the Russians, the Chinese and ONGC.

I just threw out some names. No idea their basin. Hesrd they have a lot of heavier stuff so assuming shallower than most but who knows.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by fotze2

I just threw out some names. No idea their basin. Hesrd they have a lot of heavier stuff so assuming shallower than most but who knows.

I didn't do any work in Venezuela but did some exploration work and drilled a few wells in the Llanos and Middle Magdalena in Colombia as well as offshore Guyana. Did some high level regional studies on the petroleum systems from Colombia through Venezuela and into the offshore and for the most part I don't remember it being too complicated. The biggest issues were regulatory and engineering. The technology, skill and expertise is greatly lacking and if you dealing with local patterns they are very unwilling to listen to North American expertise. In the Llanos, the one issue we commonly ran into was water control and high water cuts along with wells watering out rapidly.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I didn't do any work in Venezuela but did some exploration work and drilled a few wells in the Llanos and Middle Magdalena in Colombia as well as offshore Guyana. Did some high level regional studies on the petroleum systems from Colombia through Venezuela and into the offshore and for the most part I don't remember it being too complicated. The biggest issues were regulatory and engineering. The technology, skill and expertise is greatly lacking and if you dealing with local patterns they are very unwilling to listen to North American expertise. In the Llanos, the one issue we commonly ran into was water control and high water cuts along with wells watering out rapidl

Everyone thinks you just walk in and start pumping oil. The cultural barrier alone would be massive. Geologists have to be the least respected but most important people in the industry. My dad turned down an NHL career to become one.

At Apache (where i met Mr. Coffee) they had a big asset in egypt and people would go there and get paid insane amounts. We had this compressor/facility guru. He was unbelievable. A little redneck but he was like a savant. He lasted a few months because the locals would be deeply insulted when he tried to optimize things. If we just change these pockets, we can shut in this other compressor and bring down pressures. What an insult.

So he said fata this and came back.

[5abi]

Common folks Venezuela once pumped 3mmbblday the knowledge to produce is there

[Locke]

Originally Posted by 5abi

Common folks Venezuela once pumped 3mmbblday the knowledge to produce is there

Well...I'm not in the Oil Industry but I do have a large contingent of Venezuelan clients who were and I'd say...that the 'knowledge' that was there has bailed out a long time ago.

And they're probably not overly keen on going back. Especially under what would appear to be highly dubious and very suspect circumstances.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Locke

Well...I'm not in the Oil Industry but I do have a large contingent of Venezuelan clients who were and I'd say...that the 'knowledge' that was there has bailed out a long time ago.

And they're probably not overly keen on going back. Especially under what would appear to be highly dubious and very suspect circumstances.

Ya, id imagine they would have f'd off. Definitely opportunity, but i dont want to chase it. Its tough enough starting up in this province, cannot imagine doing it there.

You go to visit the operators in northern Alberta and its like....are teeth a thing here? Now it would be that but in a different language.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Ya, id imagine they would have f'd off. Definitely opportunity, but i dont want to chase it. Its tough enough starting up in this province, cannot imagine doing it there.

You go to visit the operators in northern Alberta and its like....are teeth a thing here? Now it would be that but in a different language.

And a whole other set of rules...if there even are any.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Locke

And a whole other set of rules...if there even are any.

Theres always rules, but whos rules. Wild west? Do you have to report your production? Who do you sell it to? Who do ypu hire who knows anything? It's completely unpalatable unless you are a major. Wasn't many American ones in geos post other than Chevron. But maybe thats what Trump is angling at?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by 5abi

Common folks Venezuela once pumped 3mmbblday the knowledge to produce is there

Some of those people didn’t just leave, they absolutely had to leave. Depending on your level and who you were, staying was not an option. I have a friend who was/is in that situation and while I won’t go into details here, they basically had to flee the country. We’re not talking about a drug lord or anything like that…we’re talking about an engineer in oil. Would they go back? I know they want to, because they loved their country. But obviously you’re not even considering that until you’re sure those issues are long gone.

So yes, at one point there was a lot of expertise and the oil industry was massive there. That all changed with Chavez and it got decimated. A lot of that knowledge and expertise went elsewhere around the world. Some ended up here, some in the US and some in the Middle East. That was 20 years ago, so those people have built lives, retired, etc.

[Leondros]

Expertise can all be imported and if the US really injects itself into the administration the regulatory side can be streamlined. We operate in the region and previously have operated in Africa and the Middle East. The largest hurdle is regulatory and community management. Drillers can all be brought in as expats and service companies typically will fly their equipment in. All exploration and modeling happens outside the country anyway.

When I say community management I mean working with the social side and ensuring the communities don’t blockade you. The largest problem in the region is a couple folks sitting in the middle of the road stopping you from getting a rig in or getting trucks to get your oil out. We spend an immense amount of time and effort actively engaging with communities and supporting a lot of great social programs that assist them.