US Airstrikes on Venezuela (Maduro captured).

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Wolven

How much of it do they actually need to hold to get the oil? He doesn't actually care about the rest of the country, just the parts that have heavy oil reserves.

Not much. Orinoco is in the far east of the country (near Guyana). It's far from Caracas and lightly populated.

[afc wimbledon]

As it stands there are no US troops in Venezuela, they have no plan at all
Meanwhile Maduro has substantial support in the country, that's how dictators stay in power, they have a well armed committed block of support who will coalesce around his ideological successor, it seems unlikely anything has changed other than the arrest

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

https://twitter.com/user/status/2007509475259990166

the "strongly-worded letter" we've all been waiting for.

Considering how they run their own country that should be quite the circus show.

How hard can babysitting 28 million people and a literal jungle be while you attempt to commandeer and extract their oil resources.

Went well the last couple of times.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The attempted annexation of Canada would result in a home front war and terrorism the likes of which the American people have never seen and are not prepared for.

So unless they want to start fearing every white person with Minnesotan accent, America should stay the #### out of our country.

I'm not sure if Canada has a defense plan in place, not that they should expect to use it, but they really should have one.

In my opinion the only sensible defense plan would be to burn and disavow the entire military as fast as possible, surrender, and to have covert plans for massive destruction of US domestic infrastructure within the first month.

Assuming you could obscure who was in the military well enough that most aren't immediate rounded up or tracked in some way, and you could empower and task 2%-3% of the force to punch back, you could probably hit hundreds of soft infrastructure targets in the US effectively bringing life to a stop there quickly, and hopefully triggering a civil war. Major river crossings, Power generation, Irrigation dams.

I don't really see anything else Canada could even try to do, maybe they could get away with evacuating some layer of leadership that could govern in absentia or "freely" negotiate, but we can't exactly start shooting back.

[puffnstuff]

Twitter thread in Spanish by José Mario de la Garza, a human rights lawyer in Mexico, translated using Google Translate:

1. Overthrowing a dictator sounds morally right. No one mourns a tyrant. But international law wasn't built to protect the good, but to restrain the powerful. That's why it prohibits force almost without exception: not because it ignores injustice, but because it knows that if each country decides whom to "liberate" by force, the world reverts to the law of the strongest.

2. The problem is not Maduro. The problem is the precedent. When military force is used to change governments without clear rules, sovereignty ceases to be a limit and becomes an obstacle. Today it is “overthrowing a dictator”; tomorrow it will be “correcting an election,” “protecting interests,” “restoring order.” The law does not absolve dictatorships, but neither does it legitimize unilateral crusades.

3. The uncomfortable question is not whether a tyrant deserves to fall, but who decides when and how. Because history teaches something brutal: removing a dictator is easy; building justice afterward is not. And when legality is broken in the name of good, what almost always follows is not freedom, but chaos, violence, and new victims. The law exists to remind us of this, even when it makes us uncomfortable.


Maduro isn't the problem: he's the face of the problem. Removing him from power would be merely opening the door. Behind him is the machine: Rodríguez, Cabello, the military command, the operators of repression and plunder. If you only change the person at the top and leave the system intact, what follows isn't democracy: it's a reshuffling.

And there's something even more difficult: Chavismo didn't just capture institutions, it captured daily life. Economy, media, bureaucracy, employment, fear, favors, blackmail. A country can't be "de-Chavistaized" by decree or by an electoral miracle. The real transition begins when that network is broken without setting the country ablaze.
The challenge is enormous, and it's also a moral one: to unite without vengeance, but without impunity. Targeted justice for those most responsible, truth for the victims, guarantees that the rest will dismantle the system, and a plan for people to live again—not just survive. Because freedom doesn't come with a new president: it comes when the state ceases to be a threat.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by troutman

As of 2025, there are approximately 60 countries classified as dictatorships, where a single person or a small group holds absolute power. This accounts for about 39.3% of the world's population living under such regimes.

https://planetrulers.com/current-dictators/

I question your source.
It shows the USA as yellow, "free".

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

https://twitter.com/user/status/2007509475259990166

the "strongly-worded letter" we've all been waiting for.

All politicians being assassinated, kidnapped or coup’d around the world, yet it’s never Chuck Schumer.

[Looch City]

Question:

Who would you rather baby sit your kids - a known rapist or a drug dealer?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Question:

Who would you rather baby sit your kids - a known rapist or a drug dealer?

[Acey]

I must have missed it - the US has sufficient evidence that Maduro is directly responsible for trafficking drugs into the US? That's why they're able to charge him in a US court?

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by Slava

Maybe, but people in Venezuela wanted change for years. I know some Venezuelans here and the sentiment is basically “we don’t like Trump, but we are glad to see Maduro out”. Of course that’s anecdotal, but it’s not exactly shocking because things in Venezuela have been so terrible for so many years.

I guess what I’m saying, is the US doesn’t really need to conquer the country. Just install a government that’s friendly to their wants, and not horrible for the people and you probably have no issues.

Because the US installing governments in other countries has worked out so well in the past.

[afc wimbledon]

It doesn't matter how much from the outside we think the regime in Iraq/Afghanistan/Cuba/Vietnam/Venezuela/Iran is hated by their citizens , they may well be hated by a majority but they are there for a reason, they represent stability, they have a power base that supports them no matter what and as these countries descend into chaos the support for 'traditional' 'local' authority will grow heavily

Worse for the US in Central and South America there is a real history of US oppression there, few in the region like the US and the whole region, Peru, Columbia and Central America have strong far left to communist extremist groups that will move into the country to fight the US

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

As it stands there are no US troops in Venezuela, they have no plan at all
Meanwhile Maduro has substantial support in the country, that's how dictators stay in power, they have a well armed committed block of support who will coalesce around his ideological successor, it seems unlikely anything has changed other than the arrest

How much support he has or had is really unknown. In dictatorships like Venezuela, support is mandatory. You don't support, you don't eat. Like literally, the government owns the food supply and controls distribution.

In the last election, Maduro claimed roughly 50% of the popular vote, the opposition results showed it was more like 30%. I am inclined to think that the real number is closer to 30%, but certainly under 50% at least.

I guess in a country with with almost 30 million people, that is still a lot of people. It might just come down to who has more guns and money.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

As it stands there are no US troops in Venezuela, they have no plan at all
Meanwhile Maduro has substantial support in the country, that's how dictators stay in power, they have a well armed committed block of support who will coalesce around his ideological successor, it seems unlikely anything has changed other than the arrest

It’s interesting that you note there’s no plan. I watched the presser today and that was my impression as well. It seemed like Trump was making some of this up on the fly. When the media asked who would be governing he was kind of like “well, some of the people behind me” and talking about the oil companies coming down he alluded to the idea that they would spend a lot of money, but all be reimbursed.

It’s hardly a surprise, but it seems like they really haven’t thought anything through and are just expecting it’ll all come together because they’re the US and everyone should fear them.

[Delthefunky]

Originally Posted by Slava

It’s interesting that you note there’s no plan. I watched the presser today and that was my impression as well. It seemed like Trump was making some of this up on the fly. When the media asked who would be governing he was kind of like “well, some of the people behind me” and talking about the oil companies coming down he alluded to the idea that they would spend a lot of money, but all be reimbursed.

It’s hardly a surprise, but it seems like they really haven’t thought anything through and are just expecting it’ll all come together because they’re the US and everyone should fear them.

There likely is a plan, but Trump can't be bothered to actually care what it is, as long as he gets the TV time. It is funny how he says the quiet parts out loud though.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

How much support he has or had is really unknown. In dictatorships like Venezuela, support is mandatory. You don't support, you don't eat. Like literally, the government owns the food supply and controls distribution.

In the last election, Maduro claimed roughly 50% of the popular vote, the opposition results showed it was more like 30%. I am inclined to think that the real number is closer to 30%, but certainly under 50% at least.

I guess in a country with with almost 30 million people, that is still a lot of people. It might just come down to who has more guns and money.

Every dictator has enough support to keep them in power against the will of the majority, what that means in reality is a very very committed well armed 30% or so, which becomes the beginning of the 'resistance'

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Slava

It’s interesting that you note there’s no plan. I watched the presser today and that was my impression as well. It seemed like Trump was making some of this up on the fly. When the media asked who would be governing he was kind of like “well, some of the people behind me” and talking about the oil companies coming down he alluded to the idea that they would spend a lot of money, but all be reimbursed.

It’s hardly a surprise, but it seems like they really haven’t thought anything through and are just expecting it’ll all come together because they’re the US and everyone should fear them.

Slight Caveat: There is no plan for Venezuela. Maracaibo will become an american protectorate and probably home to a military base, the oil assets will be protected with muscle, and the rest will be left to do whatever it wants (probably burn in some sort of civil conflict or something, who cares defo not trump.)

The plan is in motion though. It is multipurposed:
1. Resources. Venezuela has lots of good ####, oil, minerals, etc. In fact, they have a similar resource profile to Mexico and Canada. Which makes the timing of this important. We did have SOME leverage in USCMA talks, but we have much less with USA in control of Venezuela's resources.
2. It is the direct Russian playbook and grants defacto consent to the spheres of influence take on global geopolitics. China may take this as consent to invade Taiwan. Russia will certainly argue to Europeans that their big daddy is doing the same thing it's doing in Ukraine, and in general the world has become less safe. Also, I think that it is likely we will see US Backed (no boots on the ground, but probably planes and a carrier) Saudi Arabian aggression against Iran.
3. Bribes and money. Vibes and bribes as I heard it put today. Look at these Maduro pics with the double thumbs up... this was arranged. Anonymous says that Maduro and wife are being set up on a villa in UAE. Trump is showing other global power players that he will use the strongest weapons on earth to back up his racket.

[Slava]

^ maybe that is the plan, but it seemed like some of the answers at the press conference yesterday were kind of off the cuff. I wonder if we’re starting to see the people around Trump run things and he’s learning about things in the speeches. For example, when he mentioned that they were prepared for a second strike, he seemed to be reading that for the first time. It just came across as a little weird.

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The attempted annexation of Canada would result in a home front war and terrorism the likes of which the American people have never seen and are not prepared for.

So unless they want to start fearing every white person with Minnesotan accent, America should stay the #### out of our country.

100% this. IMHO this is the reason why the US will never invade Canada. My roommate back in university in the US was an ex submariner with the US navy and he was the one that brought this up in conversation when we talked about the US ever thinking about taking over Canada.

Russia could never attempt to invade Canada either. They can't even take control of a much smaller country they share a land boarder with who has depleted much of their military arsenal. We really do need to build up our military and probably start building some nukes to hide in the arctic, if we don't already have some up there. Canada's GDP is larger than Russia's and we have 100 million less people. How is Russia even considered a world power anymore other than their giant stock pile of aging nuclear warheads?

[Slava]

^ well the US has said they won’t use military force, but will press through economic coercion. Maybe some of the rhetoric has cooled about the 51st state, but their actions show that they’re doing this. All the tariffs and increasingly searching for markets other than Canada shows that to be the case.