Just because the eyes of the criminal see it as legal, doesn't mean we should agree with them. It's exactly what they want. To feel justified. Never give them what they want.
Can you clarify the bold? Did we just do that, or are you talking about the long term opening of that pipeline? Because I had thought that provided additional export capacity and wasn't reducing what we send south. Did we reduce?
Yup, Canadian production didn’t increase meaningfully since TMX has opened, so volumes that are being sent via TMX out to the coast are volumes that aren’t going down to the US south anymore. The southern refineries are ones that need heavy crude. And surprise, surprise, that’s the kind of crude Venezuela produces.
You can look at crude stocks in Cushing relative to oil prices. Generally, when stocks are low that means you have a pretty tight supply/demand balance, and therefore higher oil prices. So the last time stocks were this low, oil price was much much higher, whereas sitting at <$60/bbl right now. So we have the US setting production records and supply outpacing demand right now, but Cushing stocks low relatively, showing that volumes are being pushed elsewhere, ie. via TMX.
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Calling it illegal is a dumb red herring because it’s an irrelevant point that distracts from talking about the real issue of the reason for the strike.
But sure, keep beating that idiotic drum. I’m sure it will go somewhere and the US will be held responsible in international courts!
Yeah, because having possession of machine guns is totally the reason for the war. Can the reasons they provide be trusted considering their track record?
Might is right. There is no moral high ground here for the US. They invade yet another country and do whatever they want because they have the strongest military in the world. There really is no difference between this and Russia invading Ukraine. US make up a reason and just invade when they like.
There's a big difference in that the USA isn't trying to annex Venezuelan territory, there is no border state between Venezuela and the USA that contains a bunch of ethnic Americans, no benefit from a security perspective... if the USA were to actually take over part of Venezuela and claim it as US territory this would actually be clearly worse than Russia Ukraine.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
And what exactly are they going to do?
Write a strongly worded letter?
When Democrats gain control of the House, they could use their power to challenge Trump's policies, potentially impeach him, and leverage negotiations on legislation to extract concessions from Republicans. They may also rely on the courts to slow down or block some of Trump's executive actions.
Some Republicans are already resigning or preparing to jump ship on lame duck president.
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When Democrats gain control of the House, they could use their power to challenge Trump's policies, potentially impeach him, and leverage negotiations on legislation to extract concessions from Republicans. They may also rely on the courts to slow down or block some of Trump's executive actions.
Some Republicans are already resigning or preparing to jump ship on lame duck president.
I guess I’m dumb. But:
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Pierre Poilievre tweets: “Congratulations to President Trump on successfully arresting narco-terrorist and socialist dictator Nicolas Maduro, who should live out his days in prison.
The legitimate winner of the most recent Venezuelan elections, Edmundo González, should take office along with the courageous hero and voice of the Venezuelan people, María Corina Machado.
Down with socialism. Long live freedom.”
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Yup, Canadian production didn’t increase meaningfully since TMX has opened, so volumes that are being sent via TMX out to the coast are volumes that aren’t going down to the US south anymore. The southern refineries are ones that need heavy crude. And surprise, surprise, that’s the kind of crude Venezuela produces.
You can look at crude stocks in Cushing relative to oil prices. Generally, when stocks are low that means you have a pretty tight supply/demand balance, and therefore higher oil prices. So the last time stocks were this low, oil price was much much higher, whereas sitting at <$60/bbl right now. So we have the US setting production records and supply outpacing demand right now, but Cushing stocks low relatively, showing that volumes are being pushed elsewhere, ie. via TMX.
Interesting, but do crude stocks tell the full story? I think you'd just look at exports to the US from Alberta. Otherwise you are mixing their other suppliers and work out increased demand, and other issues.
So looking at imports to PADD3 from Canada we see:
Which does show a step drop in May 2024(TMX opening) from about 680 to a rough average of 450. I would have thought from all the talk we were ready and able to fill any new pipeline we make.
And Trump already saying US oil companies will be going into Venezuela.
This should be a huge message to all Canadians, because at best, he’s going to use it as leverage for trade negotiations with Canada, and at worst, will use it to strong arm Canada into joining the US.
This should be a wake up call for Canada that diversifying export infrastructure should be the number 1 priority right now. And fast.
Yup, Canadian production didn’t increase meaningfully since TMX has opened, so volumes that are being sent via TMX out to the coast are volumes that aren’t going down to the US south anymore. The southern refineries are ones that need heavy crude. And surprise, surprise, that’s the kind of crude Venezuela produces.
You can look at crude stocks in Cushing relative to oil prices. Generally, when stocks are low that means you have a pretty tight supply/demand balance, and therefore higher oil prices. So the last time stocks were this low, oil price was much much higher, whereas sitting at <$60/bbl right now. So we have the US setting production records and supply outpacing demand right now, but Cushing stocks low relatively, showing that volumes are being pushed elsewhere, ie. via TMX.
There has been a very insignificant if any change to exports to the US I believe. Enbridge mainline has still been apportioned pretty much all year indicating it’s full. Keystone has had its flow restrictions in place due to the rupture but it’s a marginal impact.
Cushing stocks aren’t telling the complete story. The refining complex in the Padd 2 area have been full out nominating taking up a lot of capacity not leaving much to get by them, plus prices have not supported movement to the gulf coast, in fact it has been out of the money (transport charges have been more than the differential). Cushing is also no longer the blending and storage hub it once was, with it being used increasingly for operational storage and less so for what it was traditionally used, making some historical comparisons a bit tricky,
Interesting, but do crude stocks tell the full story? I think you'd just look at exports to the US from Alberta. Otherwise you are mixing their other suppliers and work out increased demand, and other issues.
So looking at imports to PADD3 from Canada we see:
Which does show a step drop in May 2024(TMX opening) from about 680 to a rough average of 450. I would have thought from all the talk we were ready and able to fill any new pipeline we make.
Yup, exactly. That’s a pretty steep drop on a relative basis.
What’s also important to note is that because of TMX, the WTI-WCS differential has dropped significantly. So not only are there less volumes being sent from Canada to the refineries that require heavier crude, but those refineries also have to pay more for the barrels they do receive, which cuts hard into their bottom line. Remember refining is a pretty low margin business.
And Trump already saying US oil companies will be going into Venezuela.
This should be a huge message to all Canadians, because at best, he’s going to use it as leverage for trade negotiations with Canada, and at worst, will use it to strong arm Canada into joining the US.
This should be a wake up call for Canada that diversifying export infrastructure should be the number 1 priority right now. And fast.
Or it makes an already difficult project from a financial perspective even worse. If significant heavy oil makes it to the sea from Venezuelan sources that will depress prices, making it even less viable to finance and build a new pipeline and the corresponding production increase needed to fill it.
Or it makes an already difficult project from a financial perspective even worse. If significant heavy oil makes it to the sea from Venezuelan sources that will depress prices, making it even less viable to finance and build a new pipeline and the corresponding production increase needed to fill it.
IMO, it’s now a national security issue, not a financial decision. But that’s probably a very tough pill to swallow for most Canadians.
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IMO, it’s now a national security issue, not a financial decision. But that’s probably a very tough pill to swallow for most Canadians.
Careful now, you’d be talking about nationalizing production and transport, because otherwise I don’t know how a private company invests im this scenario.
Careful now, you’d be talking about nationalizing production and transport, because otherwise I don’t know how a private company invests im this scenario.
What do you think TMX is?
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