What's a rebuild anyway?

[Itse]

I think I figured out why there's such a difference of opinion whether we're properly rebuilding or not.

People who say "we're clearly rebuilding, just look at the moves Conroy has been making" absolutely have a point. When you look at the "trade balance" of the picks moved...

1st round +3
2nd round +1
3rd round +3
5th round +2
6th round +1
7th round -1

That's 9 extra picks our way, or a whole extra draft year and then some. I was frankly surprised it was that many. Clear case, right? So why are so many, including me, still questioning whether we're in a rebuild? I think the answer is pretty simple.

Despite all those incoming picks, we have only drafted a total of 3 extra players under current management. In other words, despite all the selling, we haven't been stocking up on prospects relative to other teams because of the shortage of picks Treliving left us with. Thanks dumb***!

This is however further emphasized when you look at the players we've brought in with the trades:

Daniil Miromanov (27 at time of acquisition, I think)
Morgan Frost (26)
Yegor Sharangovich (25)
Kevin Bahl (25)
Joel Farabee (25)
Artem Grushnikov (21)
Hunter Brzustewicz (20)

We're getting younger for sure, but those mostly aren't really prospect ages. No teenagers and only two players under 25. Trading for a couple of extra prospects is well within the limits of what any team could end up with while doing business as usual, as are moves to get younger.

For comparison, Anaheim drafted 7 extra players in the last 3 seasons, and they already had 1 extra pick every season for the last 4 seasons... And I didn't bother checking for traded players. Chicago picked 9 extra times up to Bedard, and then 1 extra guy two years after that, and they still have an additional 1st and two 2nds next season. Montreal has drafted 13 extra times since 2021. Etc, I think you can see the point. Those are rebuild numbers. 3 extra picks is to me not a rebuild, yet.

I still don't really care whether other people want to call this a rebuild, but I came up with two definitions of a rebuild that are both completely valid, yet different:

1. Moving out a significant number of veterans for prospects and picks.

2. Collecting significantly more/better prospects than league average (through both trades and drafting).


These look similar, but as it turns out, if you start in a deep hole, you can make a lot of moves towards picks and prospects without actually ending up ahead of league averages in a meaningful way... And this is where the Flames are right now. We did the thing in the 1st definition, but didn't end up in the situation described in 2nd definition. Lots of moves made, but still lacking the kind of prospect pool or pick stockpile that would make us look like we're rebuilding instead of just being s*** and kinda young.

As for the future, the optimist would say "okay, so we've made the moves that got us out of the hole, so the next moves will start putting some distance between us and the not-rebuilding teams".

Personally, whether it's a rational fear or not, I'm afraid the organization just took a little time to re-stock and get a little younger, and will very soon go back to business as usual, trying to make the playoffs every year as always. I kind of don't really think they would be that f*****g dumb, but I've also been burned too many times to have any faith in the organization.

(For the record: I'm not generally at all opposed to trading for players like Frost, Farabee and Sharangovich in our situation. I am slightly opposed to the contract Conny gave Sharangovich though, but ultimately with our cap situation it should end up being a complete non-issue.)

[PepsiFree]

Interesting angle but ultimately I don’t think you go deep enough to make it super meaningful (not that I blame you, as I can’t imagine even going as deep as you have).

If you look a little deeper at the draft numbers, for example, Montreal has added a bunch, but where those additions happen matter. Over the last 3 drafts Calgary has made five 1st round picks, and thirteen picks in the first 3 rounds. There is no 3-year period for Montreal over the last decade where they’ve topped either of those numbers (they have one 3-year period where they made five 1st round picks and a few where they hit the 13 number, but they’ve never been higher in either).

So while I agree stocking picks is important, stocking quality picks is certainly far more important. If you asked anyone whether they’d rather have an extra 1st or an extra 4th and an extra 5th, 10/10 are going to want the extra 1st for good reason.

Anaheim has done well with accumulating picks in the top 3 rounds, blowing past the 13 of the Flames and Canadiens, but still no more than 5 1st rounders in any 3 year period.

You look at Chicago on the other side who has only added a couple more picks over the last 3 years than the Flames, but have a whopping 8 1st rounders in those 3 years.

So not saying your analysis is unfair to one team or another or that the flaw is your own bias or anything like that, I just think the info missing is actually some of the most essential info, and some of the info presented doesn’t really tell an accurate story.

Fun angle though!

[Itse]

I actually thought about getting really deep into the question of "what's a high draft pick and how much do they matter", but maybe another day. Just wanted to put that somewhere.

I know picking a fight would always get more comments

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Itse

I think I figured out why there's such a difference of opinion whether we're properly rebuilding or not.

People who say "we're clearly rebuilding, just look at the moves Conroy has been making" absolutely have a point. When you look at the "trade balance" of the picks moved...

1st round +3
2nd round +1
3rd round +3
5th round +2
6th round +1
7th round -1

That's 9 extra picks our way, or a whole extra draft year and then some. I was frankly surprised it was that many. Clear case, right? So why are so many, including me, still questioning whether we're in a rebuild? I think the answer is pretty simple.

Despite all those incoming picks, we have only drafted a total of 3 extra players under current management. In other words, despite all the selling, we haven't been stocking up on prospects relative to other teams because of the shortage of picks Treliving left us with. Thanks dumb***!

This is however further emphasized when you look at the players we've brought in with the trades:

Daniil Miromanov (27 at time of acquisition, I think)
Morgan Frost (26)
Yegor Sharangovich (25)
Kevin Bahl (25)
Joel Farabee (25)
Artem Grushnikov (21)
Hunter Brzustewicz (20)

We're getting younger for sure, but those mostly aren't really prospect ages. No teenagers and only two players under 25. Trading for a couple of extra prospects is well within the limits of what any team could end up with while doing business as usual, as are moves to get younger.

For comparison, Anaheim drafted 7 extra players in the last 3 seasons, and they already had 1 extra pick every season for the last 4 seasons... And I didn't bother checking for traded players. Chicago picked 9 extra times up to Bedard, and then 1 extra guy two years after that, and they still have an additional 1st and two 2nds next season. Montreal has drafted 13 extra times since 2021. Etc, I think you can see the point. Those are rebuild numbers. 3 extra picks is to me not a rebuild, yet.

I still don't really care whether other people want to call this a rebuild, but I came up with two definitions of a rebuild that are both completely valid, yet different:

1. Moving out a significant number of veterans for prospects and picks.

2. Collecting significantly more/better prospects than league average (through both trades and drafting).


These look similar, but as it turns out, if you start in a deep hole, you can make a lot of moves towards picks and prospects without actually ending up ahead of league averages in a meaningful way... And this is where the Flames are right now. We did the thing in the 1st definition, but didn't end up in the situation described in 2nd definition. Lots of moves made, but still lacking the kind of prospect pool or pick stockpile that would make us look like we're rebuilding instead of just being s*** and kinda young.

As for the future, the optimist would say "okay, so we've made the moves that got us out of the hole, so the next moves will start putting some distance between us and the not-rebuilding teams".

Personally, whether it's a rational fear or not, I'm afraid the organization just took a little time to re-stock and get a little younger, and will very soon go back to business as usual, trying to make the playoffs every year as always. I kind of don't really think they would be that f*****g dumb, but I've also been burned too many times to have any faith in the organization.

(For the record: I'm not generally at all opposed to trading for players like Frost, Farabee and Sharangovich in our situation. I am slightly opposed to the contract Conny gave Sharangovich though, but ultimately with our cap situation it should end up being a complete non-issue.)

What they do with the three players mentioned in most trade talk is really defines what the organization thinks.

Clearly Andersson is all but gone, but to continue and where to stop is the question. The excuse of you need veterans begs the question of how many do you need?

Backs isnt going anywhere, same for Huby. I do think veterans on the back end is important so keeping Weegar makes sense. With Bahl being better than projected, kuz now stepping in and looking like a middle pair guy. I think that stability is there. Kuz isnt a kid, neither is Bahl, with weegar defence is stable if unspectacular.

Huby and Backs in the front ranks but Sharkbait, Frost and Farabee are mid 20’s and have multiple seasons they can help.

To my mind the vet leadership thing is an excuse. I have mentioned before its rare for the flames haves and the leagues wants to jive. We have depth out the wazoo on lw and Coleman is looking to get solid value lets be serious that should be a no brainer?

Organizationally we are miserable at center, and until it’s addressed the only thing we should be doing is maximizing return on aging plateaud players.

Not sure how the organization is missing if you can find two centers with the depth we have if we trade the said players will make the team playoff perennials for a decade. Thats where you make bank by having young stars selling jerseys and putting butts in seats.

[Robbob]

I think part of a rebuild you look at a three or four year span of picks to infuse young talent. To me that starts it with 2024. That is where they added an additional pick in the first 3 rounds. Last year they only added one, but it was a first round pick and really a pick from Vegas was moved to this year. So in the next draft they currently have an extra 1st and 3rd. What I think the proof will be in the pudding with 2026. Not only is it how many picks do they add, but where their pick lands.

If in July 2026 we are looking back and can say we drafted 18-20 times (we are currently sitting at 15 without trading the big 3) in the first 3 rounds over the last 3 years, then I think there is no question we are adding talent to the pool. The asterisk will always be where do the Flames draft with their pick.

SJ from four drafts 22-25 will have had 18 picks. They are also sitting on 4 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2026.

In the same time period the Blackhawks had 24 pick in the top 3 rounds. They are sitting on 5 picks in the top 3 rounds in 2026.

Flames I think will be in that ballpark depending on how drafts 26 and 27 pan out.

[Yanda]

The issue is the quality of picks, we can only try to develop so many long shots

Edit: I want to add that im not unhappy with the players they took, but there is a serious need for franchise players and not just middle 6 players elevated.

[Itse]

It's worth noting that it's not just the rounds that count.

Sharks picked 1st and 11th last year, Chicago picked 2nd and 18th (and 27th), Montreal picked 5th and 21st. We picked 9th and 28th. It's nice but...

This year we picked 18th and 32nd. A 32nd pick would have been a 2nd rounder just a couple of years back...

Islanders picked 3 times before we picked once. Clearly it's possible to get pretty decent 1st round picks in drafts

(A lot of that is just luck of course.)

[Matty81]

Yeah they are definitely tracking towards a few more picks and not letting UFAs walk for nothing, which is a positive change in our asset management stance. But it's for sure quantity over quality to date, as it's kind of been said - cup winning NHL teams are built around 2-4 exceptional superstar players who are true difference makers as the cornerstones of the "build", and those are much more often than not taken with top 3-5 picks.

The flames for me have done a great job adding a lot of complimentary players who would look really good supporting a couple of franchise players if they could find a way to obtain them, but you're not really starting to build upwards towards a winning team or on a meaningful path anywhere but mid level purgatory until you find a way to get those couple of franchise pieces somehow. Wolf is the only one to me who looks like he could be a key driving piece on a cup winning team so far. Obviously am really hoping one or all of Reschny, Gridin and Parekh could turn into another. Coronato looks like he'll be a good middle six winger on a decent team.

You have to really tear down your roster or get lucky to obtain those kinds of picks and the flames have resisted doing that, to much debate. It definitely has been more of a retool or refresh in my mind than an actual rebuild from the studs out. I know they really didn't want to be bad for any extended period of time and move into a new building while bottoming out, but I think until they change the stance and start aggressively moving vets out is just prolonging the inevitable, or ensuring the next build has a lower ceiling.

What I do think is really positive is that the last few years they are filling the cupboard with good supporting players, and if they do wise up and bottom out for a couple years now, it could turn around in a hurry. Add McKenna/Stenberg and Joseph and they turn out to be true difference makers and you already have a great group of wingers and young dmen who could potentially fill out the roster behind them in secondary roles. It's not like Chicago or San Jose who landed the franchise pieces but have terrible depth behind them and need to fill in behind them after the fact. And I don't think it would take much to change course dramatically. I really believe if Kadri, Andersson and Coleman get moved they will bottom out and get a top 5 pick.

[Robbob]

Just for reference compared to the Flames "rebuild" 2013-2016, they only had 14 picks in the first 3 rounds. Had they not traded for Hamilton, they probably would have had 17 picks in a 4 year span.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Itse

It's worth noting that it's not just the rounds that count.

Sharks picked 1st and 11th last year, Chicago picked 2nd and 18th (and 27th), Montreal picked 5th and 21st. We picked 9th and 28th. It's nice but...

This year we picked 18th and 32nd. A 32nd pick would have been a 2nd rounder just a couple of years back...

Islanders picked 3 times before we picked once. Clearly it's possible to get pretty decent 1st round picks in drafts

(A lot of that is just luck of course.)

This is why I have a tough time defining it as a rebuild. The pick quality isn't there yet and they havnt leaned in enough time sdjust for that.


I'd feel alot different about our direction if we had picked bedard, leshnunov and frondell (hawks) or Misa, celebrini and Smith (sharks).

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by traptor

This is why I have a tough time defining it as a rebuild. The pick quality isn't there yet and they havnt leaned in enough time sdjust for that.


I'd feel alot different about our direction if we had picked bedard, leshnunov and frondell (hawks) or Misa, celebrini and Smith (sharks).

I do think they get an impact player this year. Honestly if they trade the big 3, getting another top 10 with their own pick isn't out of the question next year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I do think they get an impact player this year. Honestly if they trade the big 3, getting another top 10 with their own pick isn't out of the question next year.

If they trade their top 3, getting a top 10 pick next year is a near certainty.

[RedHawk12]

For me, picking multiple times in the top 10 over a period of time, say 5 years, plus having extra 1sts in that time period, constitutes a proper rebuild.

In other words, the most important thing is to look at the team's own 1st and how high it is. The second most important thing is to look at how many 1sts the team has. The number of picks after the 1st or 2nd round don't matter as much in my opinion.

For example, I'm hesitant to call a team picking 15th as rebuilding, even if they also pick 28th and have multiple 2nds. On the other hand, if the team picks 3rd and 30th, then I'm more comfortable saying that the team is rebuilding. If they pick 3rd two years in a row? Then definitely rebuilding.

[Locke]

Webster's Dictionary defines a rebuild as:

re·​build (ˌ)rē-ˈbild
rebuilt (ˌ)rē-ˈbilt ; rebuilding
Synonyms of rebuild
transitive verb

1
a
: to make extensive repairs to : reconstruct
rebuild a war-torn city
b
: to restore to a previous state
rebuild inventories
2
: to make extensive changes in : remodel
rebuild society
intransitive verb

: to build again
planned to rebuild after the fire

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rebuild

[Erick Estrada]

Flames are in the very early stages of the rebuild. I think fans and even Edwards may be disappointed if they are expecting a competitive team to open up the new arena. IMO this season isn't rock bottom at that will come in another season or two and it's probably going to be end of this decade before they can get to where say the Sharks are today.

[Geeoff]

The New York Rangers famously sent out a press release that they were rebuilding but then they signed Artemi Panarin and fired Jeff Gorton, so even an officially branded rebuild may not be a rebuild

[Kipper_3434]

A rebuild is not necessarily a tank. Think the vocal few have been clamoring for a tank job, but are using the more general term.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Flames are in the very early stages of the rebuild. I think fans and even Edwards may be disappointed if they are expecting a competitive team to open up the new arena. IMO this season isn't rock bottom at that will come in another season or two and it's probably going to be end of this decade before they can get to where say the Sharks are today.

I don't agree it will take a decade to get the Sharks are, that would be some Buffalo level bad of management. I do think fans overhype the impact of prospects though and how quickly they will make an impact.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don't agree it will take a decade to get the Sharks are, that would be some Buffalo level bad of management. I do think fans overhype the impact of prospects though and how quickly they will make an impact.

It's taken the Sharks 7 years to get where they are today and they are still not a finished product. Flames have missed the playoffs 3 years counting while not hitting rock bottom yet whish is when the real hard times begin. There's no quick turnaround for this organization given how many key contributors are in their 30's and how little cornerstone talent they have in their pipeline. If the Flames are competing for a playoff spot by the end of the decade that will mean some of their upcoming draft picks go exceptionally well.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's taken the Sharks 7 years to get where they are today and they are still not a finished product. Flames have missed the playoffs 3 years counting while not hitting rock bottom yet whish is when the real hard times begin. There's no quick turnaround for this organization given how many key contributors are in their 30's and how little cornerstone talent they have in their pipeline. If the Flames are competing for a playoff spot by the end of the decade that will mean some of their upcoming draft picks go exceptionally well.

2019 the Sharks were in the third round and had gutted their prospect base in hopes of winning now sending picks and prospects for guys like Karlsson and Kane. The Flames had a better base to begin with. The Sharks also traded away the Tim Stutzle pick in the Karlsson deal where the Flames lost a 16th pick as opposed to the 32nd which they still made.

I do think the flames have drafted well especially the past couple of drafts and if they can land a couple of top picks I disagree they are at the beginning of this rebuild.

Core pieces in Wolf and Coronato were here before the rebuild kicked off and the 24-25 drafts are looking really strong. I agree I don’t see this team contending anytime soon but I don’t think we are in for a 5 year run of top picks and if that happens this regime won’t last to see it through