[PGT] Flames eat slow-cooked Mammoth

[SuperMatt18]

So Flames would need to play at a .673 pace to get to 96 points still, so even with this stretch it's very very unlikely. They'd have to keep up the pace of the last 12 games for the next 52 games and I just don't see it happening.

But they are now more likely to probably finish around .500 is my guess which will have them more with a top 10 pick than a top 5 pick.

74 points is generally around the threshold for finishing bottom 5 for a team then the Flames would need to play around .460 the rest of the way. Not sure the roster is that bad currently.

If right around .500 (82 points) is generally the threshold for a top 10 pick then the Flames would need to go .538 the rest of the way.

Picking somewhere between 6 and 10 has to be the most likely outcome right now.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Can someone get the Snek going?

I’ve been strongly on Team Tank, salivating at Gavin’s highlights. However, I can’t help but cheer for wins, and even a WC spot (as long as it’s not against COL) is enticing.

Why do the Flames always do this to us?

Because we're gluttons for punishment?

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

So Flames would need to play at a .673 pace to get to 96 points still, so even with this stretch it's very very unlikely.

But they are now more likely to probably finish around .500 is my guess which will have them more with a top 10 pick than a top 5 pick.

74 points is generally around the threshold for finishing bottom 5 for a team then the Flames would need to play around .460 the rest of the way. Not sure the roster is that bad currently.

If right around .500 (82 points) is generally the threshold for a top 10 pick then the Flames would need to go .538 the rest of the way.

Picking somewhere between 5 and 10 has to be the most likely outcome right now.

In other words, the last month has been an absolute nightmare for Flames fans who are looking to draft a franchise player in the top 3.

9-6-1 in the last 16. That is not the record of a bottom 3 team. More than likely with this roster they finish outside the playoffs but not bottom 5. This is what people call the mushy middle.

Of course, there is hope they can still finish bottom 3 if we trade Andersson, Kadri, and Coleman quickly. But I am not confident we will do that.

[traptor]

Missing out on the top 4 will be a massive set back for this organization

[Geeoff]

3 points up on the Canucks but the Nucks have 2 games in hand

Looking at the league, no team is really that terrible

[Dion]

[SemicolonD]

Tale as old as time, Flames not finding a direction. 1 win, 1 loss, minor deviations but no long streak either way from here out. Perfectly planned roughly 80 point finish. 80 points had you picking around 8th or 9th overall the last 4 years.

Just so we can say we got a winning culture. I think it was boomer on one of the episodes recently that really struck a chord with me. Talking about how we wish we were Chicago with all their up and coming stars and how we wish we had that, but that team literally went through a whole rebuild after winning 2 cups in the same time the Flames did absolute dogsh*t nothing.

Sorry for being sour grapes and I’ll refrain from posting much from here out but everytime I think about it it pisses me off lol.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by SemicolonD

Tale as old as time, Flames not finding a direction. 1 win, 1 loss, minor deviations but no long streak either way from here out. Perfectly planned roughly 80 point finish. 80 points had you picking around 8th or 9th overall the last 4 years.

Just so we can say we got a winning culture. I think it was boomer on one of the episodes recently that really struck a chord with me. Talking about how we wish we were Chicago with all their up and coming stars and how we wish we had that, but that team literally went through a whole rebuild after winning 2 cups in the same time the Flames did absolute dogsh*t nothing.

Sorry for being sour grapes and I’ll refrain from posting much from here out but everytime I think about it it pisses me off lol.

No, it isn't sour grapes. It is the exact thoughts that a large portion of the fan base are feeling right now.

I also don't think you factored in that the majority of our games from here on out are home games. We have been really bad on the road, but good at home. So I can easily see us finishing somewhere around 10th to 14th last by the end of the year with an easier schedule.

I also am worried with all these wins that Maloney and crew are celebrating and telling themselves that they were right and we do not need to trade the vets. And the end result will be the Flames staying directionless and in the mushy middle.

[FlamesNightmare]

I don't like watching The Flames losing, even though it would benefit long-term with the McKenna Pick. So its nice to see The Flames winning!

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

This may be a hot take but I do not see us finishing bottom 5 with this team. Maybe not even bottom 10.

Especially with the goaltending.

If you take the bad start as anomalous, they've been heading towards something like an 82-84 point finish ever since that. (The numbers change a bit depending on how you slice off the bad start exactly.) That'd likely be just out of bottom 10.

If you think the last 10 games are best representative of teams actual level, then you get about a 93-94 point finish, so playoff bubble level.

Either way, I've completely given up on a high pick, outside of a lottery ball going our way.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Itse

If you take the bad start as anomalous, they've been heading towards something like an 82-84 point finish ever since that. (The numbers change a bit depending on how you slice off the bad start exactly.) That'd likely be just out of bottom 10.

If you think the last 10 games are best representative of teams actual level, then you get about a 93-94 point finish, so playoff bubble level.

93-94 points puts us either just outside of the playoffs and drafting 16th overall, or wasting 8 days vs Colorado and then drafting 17th overall. Otherwise known as the worst timeline ever.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I suspect, given Conroy’s 3 year history of continually trading away vets that he is waiting for his asking price to be met. He has possibly the 3 best players who could be traded this year. There is no reason to believe that teams are giving their best offers 100 days or so before the trade deadline. I cannot even remember the last time a team got a recent former top 5 pick in a trade (I guess Edmonton in the Savoie deal would be the closest) but maybe Conroy can pull it off.

But if folks are looking for Conroy to trade major pieces in November or December they probably are not as concerned with top value. Can’t really remember the last time a veteran for futures trade of any significance was made between November 1st and Jan 1st.

How much is a top 3 pick in a strong draft worth in trade value, and do you actually think we have a chance of making up the difference between a top pick and a 10+ pick by waiting for better offers?

I don't, I see it as extremely unrealistic. Even if we offered everything we're getting in the possibly upcoming trades, we probably still couldn't get a top pick in this draft with that package.

What I'm seeing is the organization letting go of the highest price available for them because of basically just good vibes.

[Locke]

I've said it before and I'll say it again...there are plenty more games to lose. Enjoy the wins when they come.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

93-94 points puts us either just outside of the playoffs and drafting 16th overall, or wasting 8 days vs Colorado and then drafting 17th overall. Otherwise known as the worst timeline ever.

You already know too if this keeps up we will be within range of a playoff spot come the deadline. And then we will hear again how we can not trade the vets because it wouldn't be fair to the room after how hard they worked to make up ground after the poor start. And all we need to do is sneak in and anything can happen!

And then we will draft 14th. Basically a repeat of last year. I can totally see this happening lol.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Itse

How much is a top 3 pick in a strong draft worth in trade value, and do you actually think we have a chance of making up the difference between a top pick and a 10+ pick by waiting for better offers?

I don't, I see it as extremely unrealistic. Even if we offered everything we're getting in the possibly upcoming trades, we probably still couldn't get a top pick in this draft with that package.

What I'm seeing is the organization letting go of the highest price available for them because of basically just good vibes.

Well that is the dividing line. There are a lot of fans who want to sell Andersson, Kadri, Coleman for rock bottom prices just to to try to get a higher pick.

Traade Kadri for a 2nd, Andersson for two 2nds in the next 10 days. Hope that is enough to get the Flames a top 3 pick. Some fans don’t want to trade for rock bottom prices.

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

You already know too if this keeps up we will be within range of a playoff spot come the deadline. And then we will hear again how we can not trade the vets because it wouldn't be fair to the room after how hard they worked to make up ground after the poor start. And all we need to do is sneak in and anything can happen!

And then we will draft 14th. Basically a repeat of last year. I can totally see this happening lol.

Once Kadri and Andersson are traded the bottom will fall out of this season IMO. Those two are the biggest play drivers for most of the offence this season. At least I hope that's what happens but who knows.

Having Bruz take Andersson's spot should add more goals against, while getting Bru some good experience. And there's no one in the system right now who can replace what Kadri brings.

I think my only real "concern" is that the Flames string a ton of wins together between now and when these guys get moved.. because then they'll have to lose a ton to get back into top-4 territory. The rest of December is fascinating honestly IMO.

All that aside, great game from Wolf tonight.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

No, I'm assuming that Conroy's current marching orders are still to try and re-sign Andersson. I really don't believe that permission has been given to trade him yet.

I can confirm that is not true. Conroy's marching orders is to do as he sees fit for the team. He doesn't need permission to sign or trade Andersson.

[Bingo]

Interesting ... record to make the playoffs and record to not draft in the top ten is the same with the West being so poor this year.

Make playoffs ... 99 point pace
Not draft top ten ... 99 point pace
Not draft top five ... 82 point pace

[Goriders]

Slowly creeping up the standings. Are they waving bye bye to McKenna?

[SportsJunky]

Stay the course.