2025 Formula 1 Season Thread

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Carlos Sainz will finish the season with more podium than Lewis Hamilton.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

McLaren strategy equally bad for both drivers.
Well done

Did we ever get a replay of Norris moving to 4th? Did Mercedes give up place to him or did Antonelli go off track?

I haven’t seen a good replay but the general consensus seems to be that he did lose control legitimately and had to make a pretty good save to keep the car on track.

And they finally just showed it on the broadcast. Definitely almost lost it.

[powderjunkie]

I guess maybe McLaren didn't have any good softs left? The gap was probably impossible to close, but staying out to lap 49/50 would have at least kept them open for a safety car (and there were a few little incidents in that span).


If they finished in the order after lap 1

411 Lando
399 Oscar. (-12 instead of -16)
389 Max. (-22 instead of -12)

So either way the gap would've been 12 and Lando needs to finish 3rd.


But if Kimi didn't bottle there it would have been 10 and Lando would have needed 2nd next week. Which would have opened a delicious possibility of Max-Oscar-Lando, and would Oscar move over? Whether he did or didn't it would have been a fitting end to this season.

It seems unlikely that anybody else will really get in the mix next week, but if the closing laps are the same order as today (Max-Oscar-____-Norris) then the same question could exist, with Oscar needing to give up 2 spots. But not until the finish line because a Max mistake/issue (without dropping below Lando) would then give Oscar the title. A lot of interesting possibilities, but I fully expect it to be a damp squib.

[powderjunkie]

Ya I'm not really sure that Mercedes really wants a customer car winning the title over the works team, but they're probably petty enough to want to spite Red Bull (but I don't think that Ant thing was intentional)

Hulk and Hadjar and Kimi are also almost certainly finishing the season with more podiums that Lewis

[powderjunkie]

McLaren had about 40 seconds to make the decision with Oscar on the SC. I listened to each team radio:


Oscar:

Are we boxing or staying out?

Answer: staying out (after saying standby and ~15 seconds deliberation


Lando:

What are we doing?

...[5 seconds silence]

tires are fine

Answer: we're staying out (after just a few more seconds)


I don't think Lando's comment on tires influenced McLaren's decision at all, but it implies he may have preferred to stay out (and in normal circumstances that would probably make sense to go contrary from 3rd)

[Ironhorse]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Big 2 points for Norris at end, he wins Championship by finishing 3rd next week (I think?), but part of protecting championship is one of them beating Max. What terrible strategy.
The relentless pressure from Max has obviously gotten to McLaren

Yeah I think that wobble by Kimi allowing Norris to pass him on the penultimate lap may have saved Norris' bacon for the championship next weekend.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Ironhorse

Yeah I think that wobble by Kimi allowing Norris to pass him on the penultimate lap may have saved Norris' bacon for the championship next weekend.

As powderjunkie pointed out, it’s not inconsequential but may not actually matter all that much.

If kimi doesn’t run wide and max goes in 10 points down and we end up with the order in Abu Dhabi as max-Oscar-lando, then Oscar just moves and lets lando by.

Even now with the 12 point gap, if Oscar is between max and lando, he’ll just move over. That alone wouldn’t do it but the McLaren likely has the pace to overtake on track if necessary. Especially if they work together. What does make it more complicated for Max is that it’s highly unlikely that another team can challenge for one of the top four slots and get ahead of Lando.

The only scenario max realistically wins is if both mclarens have issues, get penalties or are so far back that Oscar moving out of the way won’t help.

[powderjunkie]

If next weekend finishes Oscar-Max-Lando:

423 Lando
417 Oscar
414 Max

Oscar loses by 6 points...exactly the swing from Monza (or Singapore, or Brazil) and less than Hungary or Silverstone for that matter). That would be a crushing way to lose. These are all very debatable incidents, but being within the margin of Monza in particular would be ####ing brutal.

Max loses by 9 points - IIRC that's how much he cost himself by crashing into George in Spain (though he's also still behind Oscar in this case)

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If next weekend finishes Oscar-Max-Lando:

423 Lando
417 Oscar
414 Max

Oscar loses by 6 points...exactly the swing from Monza (or Singapore, or Brazil) and less than Hungary or Silverstone for that matter). That would be a crushing way to lose. These are all very debatable incidents, but being within the margin of Monza in particular would be ####ing brutal.

Max loses by 9 points - IIRC that's how much he cost himself by crashing into George in Spain (though he's also still behind Oscar in this case)

Don’t forget about Canada! If lando doesn’t torpedo Oscar, the numbers would look quite different.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Don’t forget about Canada! If lando doesn’t torpedo Oscar, the numbers would look quite different.

There's a bunch of incidents for each driver that you can weigh out like that. From a losing sleep at night standpoint, I think Oscar being forced to make a brutal decision in Monza and Max's red mist in Spain are the top of the list.

[powderjunkie]

To keep it simple this is just between Lando and Oscar. While I think these all broadly fall into 'we went motor-racing, Toto', I think its also reasonable to speculate what the most 'fair' outcomes would have been without outside influences:

Stewarding. -22 from Oscar
Brazil -8, Silverstone -14. (people are free to disagree but I think these were two of the worst penalties in the history of f1)

Team Reliability -24 from Lando
Zaandvort -18, Vegas -6 (just to Oscar of course)

Team Strategy -18 from Oscar
Between Hungary and Qatar Oscar should have had 50 points and Lando 33, but it ended up Oscar 36 to Lando 37

Net all of those and its 16 points in Lando's favour, which is exactly the current margin.


And then we have incidents without a clearcut 'fair' outcome: Monza, Singapore, USGP sprint (perhaps some others but I think these are the main ones). Net outcome was 12 points in Lando's favour, but there's lots to dissect there. In 'fair' toto-racing terms I'd say Monza and Singapore should have offset each other one way or another (Oscar obeying team orders should have made Lando's Singapore bang beyond the pale; or if Monza switch didn't happen then Singapore would have been A-okay with me). USGP probably meant a 2pt swing between them had they both finished.

So my fairness time machine would probably have Oscar up by about 4 pts right now (and Max out of contention).

[FLAMESRULE]

Results from Qatar!! And boy did that race shake things up, both with Mclarens questionable strategy and our pool

Congrats to yours truly for 4 correct picks this week and 7 top ten...P2 goes to 3thirty with 2 slotted and 9 top ten.

But overall there's been a change!! Flamesrule has a 3pt lead over FurnaceFace and 4pt lead over speede5.

One more race this year! This weekend!!

Spoiler!

[3thirty]

Just like in real life a close finish. 6 of us could realistically win this!

[FurnaceFace]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Coying FurnaceFace's picks from here forward. I think I've got this season figured out now.

Hopefully you didn't copy this week...

Early but travel could mean I miss the deadline. I'll go near nightmare scenario for McLaren/Norris:

Ver
Pia
Nor
Rus
Lec
Ant
Haj
Law
Sai
Bea

[3thirty]

Nor
Ver
Pia
Rus
Lec
Ant
Sai
Had
Hulk
Alo

[dammage79]

1.Norris
2. Piastri
3. Verstappen
4. Russell
5. Leclerc
6. Sainz
7. Hadjar
8. Tsunoda
9. Antonelli
10. Bortoletto.

[TimSJ]

ver
pia
nor
sai
rus
lec
had
alo
hul
law

[DoubleK]

Nor
Ver
Pia
Rus
Lec
Had
Ant
Sai
Hulk
Alo

[powderjunkie]

I just remembered I originally had it VER-PIA last week, but I changed it after sprint quali. That would've had me really in the hunt.

PIA
VER
LEC
RUS
NOR
SAI
ANT
HAM
ALO
OCO


I've also realized a fun scenario - if the order is as above approaching the finish then a PIA bobble would see Max through to win the WDC. No chance Oscar gives up a win like that intentionally of course, especially when any issue for Lando would give Oscar the WDC. But I hope there is some big controversy and everyone is unhappy.

[FLAMESRULE]

Well I'm gonna go off the reservation...haha. I want Piastri to win, hate Verstappen, and Norris can break under pressure...subject to change and a chance to win the trophy haha. Used this: https://f1calculator.com/

Pia
Ver
Rus
Lec
Ant
Nor
Alb
Ham
Sai
Had