Recall the UCP and other activist responses

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer has approved a recall petition for Grande Prairie UCP MLA Nolan Dyck. This is the third official recall petition approved for an MLA, following Demetrios Nicolaides and Angela Pitt.

https://bsky.app/profile/ctheriault..../3m65wqe77w22a

Pitt deserves to be out...she does F all and blocks anyone that isn't hardcore right wing. Like these people realize they work for us right?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

One mla seems to have accessed the voting history of the lead for the petition.

https://bsky.app/profile/ctheriault..../3m6fk2susps25

Greasy.

https://www.elections.ab.ca/uploads/...Guidelines.pdf

Section 163 of the Election Act of Alberta makes it an offence for a person to use information obtained from the register of electors for a purpose other than for conducting general elections, by-elections, referendums and plebiscites; for compiling or revising lists or registers of electors under the authority of the Election Act, the Canada Elections Act and the Local Authorities Election Act, and for contravening the restrictions placed on the use of voter information authorized for registered political parties, constituency associations, MLAs, candidates and election officers. The penalty for any of these offences is a fine of not more than $100,000 or imprisonment for a term of not more than one year or to a fine and imprisonment.

Responding to a recall does not appear to fit any of these approved uses. It is odd that Elections Alberta (I presume?) published that, though.

[Slava]

I hope every recall petition receives the necessary signatures in short order. There would be no better Christmas gift for Alberta.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Greasy.

https://www.elections.ab.ca/uploads/...Guidelines.pdf



Responding to a recall does not appear to fit any of these approved uses. It is odd that Elections Alberta (I presume?) published that, though.

Between this and Shandro getting access to private cell phone numbers of doctors, you gotta wonder how many other pieces of info they're using but not supposed to have.

[puffnstuff]

5 more recall petitions today.
Here is all of them

https://www.elections.ab.ca/recall-i...all-petitions/

New ones are for Glenn Van Dijken, Jackie Lovely, Nathan Neudorf, Jason Stephan and Searle Turton.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

5 more recall petitions today.
Here is all of them

https://www.elections.ab.ca/recall-i...all-petitions/

New ones are for Glenn Van Dijken, Jackie Lovely, Nathan Neudorf, Jason Stephan and Searle Turton.

Ya, that's great to see the progress. A quick look at the website is showing it like this:

Operation Total Recall (23/44* recalls in motion):

• 4 targeted - Meaning someone has stepped up to be the proponent for the petition (Step 1 in their process)
• 5 Initial Paperwork Submitted - Paperwork has been filed with $500 payment (Step 2)
• 0 Initial Paperwork Approved - Petition has been approved and Elections Alberta is awaiting comment from the targeted MLA for up to 7 days (Step 3)
• 5 Organizing - This is the step immediately before gathering signatures, likely where they are getting people signed up to be canvassers, etc. (Step 4)
• 9 Gathering signatures (Step 5)

Calgary-Bow will be done their gathering by Jan 21, 2026.
Airdrie-East is done Feb 3
Grande Prairie finishes Feb 19
11 more will wrap by Feb 22 & 23.

From each of those dates, Elections Alberta will take up to 21 days to verify the petitions. Once completed, they get 7 days to provide notice and update the website with the result.

Then the ball is in the LG's court to call the recall votes within 4 months. So this could stretch out to June/July to get the recall votes completed or as fast as Februrary we could see Calgary-Bow vote to recall Nicolaides with 13 more right behind.

Alberta's legislature calendar shows they are packing it in for the year on November 27th and if their 2026 calendar is anything like 2025, they won't start sessions until the end of Feb so they can have a 3 month Xmas break.

Potentially, Calgary-Bow could have their recall vote before the government is back in session (although that is unlikely for the process to go that fast) but more likely the recall vote will occur while the legislature is active, which could mean Nicolaides could lose his job mid-session.

[btimbit]

Just read McIvers response to the recall. What a joke.

Now that they're gathering signatures I'll fly back to Calgary to sign

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Pitt deserves to be out...she does F all and blocks anyone that isn't hardcore right wing. Like these people realize they work for us right?

No, they don't, every UCP member is in it for themselves only. They see their constituents as below them, confident in the fact that no matter what they do or say they'll still be re-elected by the ignorant masses in this province. So far it's worked out pretty well for them

[Slava]

While I don’t think they’ll all succeed, it is hilarious that they’re at 14 recall petitions now.

[Reggie Dunlop]

I think the point of these initiatives is largely to build community of like-minded citizens, which coalesce into ground troops.

The Forever-Canadian people now meet regularly in social gatherings where a network is built.

Somewhat similar to how the Take Back Alberta and convoy crew became a movement.

Though this could very well be on a far larger scale.

As they say, it's the friends you make along the way.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Slava

While I don’t think they’ll all succeed, it is hilarious that they’re at 14 recall petitions now.

I just saw this while heading over to the Operation Total Recall website:

You are not alone
Over 265,124 visitors have accessed this page in the last 30 days.

That is pretty solid traffic for a 30 day website. Definitely says something about the level of interest in recalling MLAs.

Thinking about how many recalls may or may not succeed. I would probably look at it like this:

• Calgary-North West = Very likely to succeed. Sawhney barely won the riding to begin with and is very unpopular
• Calgary-North = Very likely to succeed. Yaseen barely won the riding to begin with
• Calgary-Bow = Very likely to succeed. Nicolaides barely won the riding to begin with and is hugely unpopular as Education Minister
• Morinville-St. Albert = This is a bit of a tougher riding, UCP won by 1744 votes and they need 15,700 signatures
• Calgary-Fish Creek = Fairly tough riding as the margin was 2489 but being in the city they may be able to mobilize to get enough signatures now. Possible
• Calgary-Hays = McIver had a pretty strong win margin but the petition only needs 12,820 signatures and McIver sucks. I think this is likely to succeed.
• Airdrie-East = Pitt sucks but she took the riding by a huge margin (6518). Getting 14,813 signatures will be a tough one in that riding
• Grande Prairie = Dyck won by over 50% but they only need 9427 signatures. This might be successful because of the lower threshold
• Highwood = This seems like an impossible task. Sigurdson won by 10,450 votes and they need 15,788 signatures. It would be an amazing feat to get this petition through
• Lethbridge-East = I think this is likely. The margin was pretty small 636 and the NDP do pretty well in Lethbridge.
• Red Deer-South = I think this one is not very likely
• Spruce Grove-Stony Plain = Also not very likely
• Camrose = Not very likely
• Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock = Not very likely

So I think 6/14 are likely to go ahead with a few on the bubble. The others would be surprising but I think it will come down to how people feel about the various uses of the notwithstanding clause and scandals that are piling up. The momentum that the Forever-Canadian petition built may actually clear the way for some of these harder ridings to collect signatures that might not have been possible 6 months ago.

Also, there are a couple of easier ridings (Calgary-East and Calgary-Cross) that would get the recalls to the magic number 8 once they are in motion. Calgary-East has their paperwork submitted, so it is really just a matter of when paperwork goes in against Amery in Calgary-Cross.

At that point, it is a race between the recalls and Smith calling an election.

On the one hand, I do not think she can really get away with tinkering with the recall legislation that her party just put in place I am also curious if changing the process would work as these recalls are already in motion. The precedent has been set with the Forever-Canadian petition having to move ahead under the old rules, I think all of the active recalls would be grandfathered and have to run their course as they were implemented under the laws at the time. Tinkering would not be enough, they would have to eliminate the recall process entirely which is a political landmine as their base wanted the recall legislation to be implemented.

On the other hand, I also do not see her letting the government slide into the hands of the NDP based on recalls. Once 8 UCP MLAs are recalled, the LG could make the NDP the governing party without going to an election (if the two independents support them). I would bet that Smith would call an election before that scenario ever plays out.

[Hemi-Cuda]

I still don't think any UCP member is getting recalled even if the petitions are successful. They'll strike down the legislation before that can happen

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

They're all unlikely to succeed simply because actually getting that proportion of the population to sign in any given riding is really, really difficult. Even Nicolaides, who had all the early momentum and is the most well-known, is going to be a slog to collect what is probably around half of the remaining signatures required, especially now that the snow is here. A big chunk of the people motivated to sign have already done so (me included), but I wouldn't be surprised if at least 25% of the riding has no idea who Nicolaides even is, and many more don't care who he is or what he's done and have no interest in signing anything or even hearing out the person who is asking them to sign something.

The threshold for a recall is high and it should be high. Succeeding at any of them would be a huge accomplishment. Even if they don't, though, you've shaken the tree and sent a strong message, which is why you should try anyway even if Hemi-Cuda is right.

[Fuzz]

The 2019 election had a turnout of 67.5%, 2023, 59.5%. I thought this would leave room from people who may have sat the election out last time, and may matter for some recalls, but in 2023 Calgary-Bow had a turnout of 66.8%. I guess you could see that as people having a lot of political interest in the riding so may pay more attention than average.

https://officialresults.elections.ab...FM?EventId=101

[Alpha_Q]

When I talked to a woman who had set up a table near Wildwood Community Centre, she said they expected to get the bulk of the signatures when they actually started going door to door. Perhaps some who live in the Calgary Bow riding can say whether or not they've had people come by yet, but I'm under the impression they were waiting for colder weather to begin the door to door portion, in order to have a better chance of catching people at home.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Alpha_Q

When I talked to a woman who had set up a table near Wildwood Community Centre, she said they expected to get the bulk of the signatures when they actually started going door to door. Perhaps some who live in the Calgary Bow riding can say whether or not they've had people come by yet, but I'm under the impression they were waiting for colder weather to begin the door to door portion, in order to have a better chance of catching people at home.

Reposting this from a few pages back:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

We are going to be doing door to door canvasing on the 29th of November and 6th of December.

If you would like to volunteer, you don't need to be in the riding to knock on doors. We are wanting a group to go with the canvassers like myself to knock and let them know which ones to go to sign. We are basically taking one of the individual districts per canvasser (about 300-400 houses) on each of those days with one dumb person taking two (me).

Go to RecallNicolaides.ca to sign up if you're interested.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I still don't think any UCP member is getting recalled even if the petitions are successful. They'll strike down the legislation before that can happen

Not impossible, but I think an early election call is more likely. They'll want to see how many recall petitions are actually successful or look like they'll be successful... if the number is 5 or more then I think the UCP pulls the trigger.

AKA before the new electoral map is finalized, before Guthrie and Co. can rebrand the Alberta Party into a moderate conservative party, and before the 6 potential citizen initiative questions (Forever Canadian/APP/Private School Funding/Corb Lund's Coal Mining Petition/3 from the AFL).

I think their incentives for going early are starting to pile up.

[troutman]

Next Election - rural Alberta will go UCP, Edmonton will go NDP. It’s all up to Calgary.

[wireframe]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Not impossible, but I think an early election call is more likely. They'll want to see how many recall petitions are actually successful or look like they'll be successful... if the number is 5 or more then I think the UCP pulls the trigger.

AKA before the new electoral map is finalized, before Guthrie and Co. can rebrand the Alberta Party into a moderate conservative party, and before the 6 potential citizen initiative questions (Forever Canadian/APP/Private School Funding/Corb Lund's Coal Mining Petition/3 from the AFL).

I think their incentives for going early are starting to pile up.

Not to mention that more information will be be released about the ahs corruption scandal and probably others.


The only chance the ucp has to win is if they call an election now, before a new PC party exists and the depth of their corruption is unknown to the general public. The NDP running ads about how they are "ready to lead" suggests that they expect an early election too

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by troutman

Next Election - rural Alberta will go UCP, Edmonton will go NDP. It’s all up to Calgary.

Brilliant analysis.


I’d still be shocked if any of these petitions actually get enough signatures. The numbers alone aren’t great. One can hope though.