Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Frequitude]

Taking a break from rightful UCP bashing for a sec, here's piece of good news they appear poised to have pulled off. This will be very good for this province.

Ottawa, Alberta agree to broad outlines of energy deal, including support for pipeline

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have agreed to the broad outlines of a memorandum of understanding that would give Alberta special exemptions from federal environmental laws and offer political support to a new oil pipeline to the B.C. coast, CBC News has learned.

...

It would be contingent on Alberta embracing a stricter industrial carbon pricing regime and a multibillion-dollar investment in carbon capture from the Pathways Alliance of oilsands companies, according to sources who spoke to CBC News.

...

The deal is expected to include carve-outs for Alberta on federal greenhouse gas regulations that it has long opposed, including Ottawa’s net-zero clean electricity regulations. The deal would see Ottawa suspend those regulations if Alberta agrees to strengthen its industrial carbon price.

[Major Major]

Huh, a carbon tax. Who would have thought?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Taking a break from rightful UCP bashing for a sec, here's piece of good news they appear poised to have pulled off. This will be very good for this province.

Ottawa, Alberta agree to broad outlines of energy deal, including support for pipeline

It’s a positive step, as I’ve said many times in the past our provincial government should be taking a more collaborative approach to negotiating with the federal government as opposed to their usual rigid approach. My concern though is that if it is agreed to Smith will criticize the concessions around carbon pricing after the fact and any goodwill gained will take a step backwards. Hopefully that doesn’t end up being the case, but the UCP have a pretty good track record of shooting themselves(and our province by extension) in the foot.

[Fuzz]

I'm interested in seeing the long term success of the Pathways project. A lot for Alberta seems to hinge on it. CCUS has a pretty mixed record so far, so it will be interesting to see if it can live up to the demands put on it, or if the whole thing turns into a money pit that doesn't achieve much. Unfortunately the answer is years away.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Taking a break from rightful UCP bashing for a sec, here's piece of good news they appear poised to have pulled off. This will be very good for this province.

Ottawa, Alberta agree to broad outlines of energy deal, including support for pipeline

Oh no. What are PP and Smith gonna whine about now? I’m sure they’ll find something. But news of this deal takes away a lot of their dumbass talking points, like their stupid “Canada is broken” narrative.

[Harry Lime]

Is PPs new Head of Staff really named Steve Outhouse?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Is PPs new Head of Staff really named Steve Outhouse?

Ya man, dude is the s‎hit.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I'm interested in seeing the long term success of the Pathways project. A lot for Alberta seems to hinge on it. CCUS has a pretty mixed record so far, so it will be interesting to see if it can live up to the demands put on it, or if the whole thing turns into a money pit that doesn't achieve much. Unfortunately the answer is years away.

I think it'll be viable. The TIER direct investment changes announced a couple months ago are kind of the thing that holds all of this together. In grossly oversimplified terms, large emitters will be able apply their carbon compliance costs towards investing in decarbonization (e.g. carbon capture) projects. So in a way the up front capital kinda becomes net-net free or reduced. Once its built it will be a viable ongoing concern because the opex will be far less than CO2 prices.

Alberta gets jobs/royalties/taxes/economy from a pipeline and production growth to fill it. Feds get decarbonization, higher carbon prices, and tax revenue. The BC coastline are the ones who need to be incented in though.

[troutman]

He’s built like a brick ####house.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I think it'll be viable. The TIER direct investment changes announced a couple months ago are kind of the thing that holds all of this together. In grossly oversimplified terms, large emitters will be able apply their carbon compliance costs towards investing in decarbonization (e.g. carbon capture) projects. So in a way the up front capital kinda becomes net-net free or reduced. Once its built it will be a viable ongoing concern because the opex will be far less than CO2 prices.

Alberta gets jobs/royalties/taxes/economy from a pipeline and production growth to fill it. Feds get decarbonization, higher carbon prices, and tax revenue. The BC coastline are the ones who need to be incented in though.

I don't mean viable in that way, I mean technically viable. Is there the capacity and subsurface delivery rate going to be high enoguh to handle all the emissions? Will reservoirs reach capacity faster than anticipated, or just not be able to take it at the rate needed? At what point does it become uneconomical due to unanticipated costs? I hope it works, it will be great for Alberta and Canada. But it's by no means a sure thing.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I don't mean viable in that way, I mean technically viable. Is there the capacity and subsurface delivery rate going to be high enoguh to handle all the emissions? Will reservoirs reach capacity faster than anticipated, or just not be able to take it at the rate needed? At what point does it become uneconomical due to unanticipated costs? I hope it works, it will be great for Alberta and Canada. But it's by no means a sure thing.

Almost certainly yes, imo. There is lots of pore space under Alberta where stuff has come out - you can up quite a lot of that first before you need to look anywhere else. And the very first batch will go into producing oil fields for tertiary recovery. I think if there's even a small value placed appropriate reservoir storage it won't be a problem - getting the facilities paid for and built is the biggest hurdle imo.

[Reggie Dunlop]

I look forward the future Senior Level Political Consultancy firm Outhouse - Butts.

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

I look forward the future Senior Level Political Consultancy firm Outhouse - Butts.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

It’s a positive step, as I’ve said many times in the past our provincial government should be taking a more collaborative approach to negotiating with the federal government as opposed to their usual rigid approach. My concern though is that if it is agreed to Smith will criticize the concessions around carbon pricing after the fact and any goodwill gained will take a step backwards. Hopefully that doesn’t end up being the case, but the UCP have a pretty good track record of shooting themselves(and our province by extension) in the foot.

I am disappointed that Carney is not extracting more out of Smith to get this political win. Ideally I would have wanted to see him strong arm her into walking back the NWC use and/or her moves against the renewable energy sector that drove away $34B in investment. But, it is a good reminder as to what kind of party the Liberals are (and what they are not) - good for corporations, meh for people.

What will be really interesting is if no private proponent continues to show up even with Smith and Carney clearing hurdles for them. How will people move the goal posts?

In that regard, this is an empty net goal for Carney. He takes away a talking point from the conservatives because he basically is supporting a pipeline and he gets political points with Alberta but the pipeline is still unlikely to happen because (1) GoBC is unlikely to get on board, (2) the coastal indigenous group is unlikely to get on board, (3) the tanker restrictions won't be lifted because it is there for safety as much as it is there for environmental reasons, and (4) a private proponent is unlikely to step up.

He might take a bit of a hit in BC but as long as he doesn't force a pipeline through without giving BC something big it likely won't cost him much in the way of political points.

Unfortunately, this is also a political win for Smith because she gets to walk into the UCP AGM with the political points of a potential pipeline as the latest headline instead of the multiple uses of the NWC.

One of the interviews about this today mentioned there is a $500M feasibility studies that will need to be done before anything else and it is unlikely that a private corporation will do it. So I guess we know where the next $500M grift of our money is going to go to chase the $14M Smith is already wasting on this thing.

[Fuzz]

This is perhaps nothing, but also...interesting. Bill 12 does a bunch of things, but stuffed in there is this:

AIMCo Amendment Act:

Proposed amendments to the AIMCo Act would protect taxpayers from financial risk arising from past investment decisions made by the prior AIMCo leadership.

https://www.alberta.ca/updating-financial-laws

Uhm...errr...I'm gonna need to see more. Bill 12:

AIMCo Amendment Act
The Alberta Investment Management Corporation Act (“AIMCo Act”), in
combination with public sector pension legislation, establishes AIMCo as
the investment manager for public sector pension plans and other
designated entities in Alberta.

• The amendments to the AIMCo Act relate to potential financial
aspects associated with investment management services
delivered before November 2024.

• These provide protection to Alberta taxpayers and apply only to
actions taken before the governance reset.

https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/...fact-sheet.pdf

I still have questions. WTF did the AIMCo board do before November 2024 that this is protecting us from? If taxpayers are shielded, I presume the bag holder would be public pensions? Whatever "this" is, but it must be something or this wouldn't be necessary. What do they know that they are not telling us?

The data centre levy is in there too, which is worth discussing.

Alberta Corporate Tax Amendment Act – Data Centre Levy
The Alberta Corporate Tax Act levies Alberta's corporate income tax on
corporations with a permanent establishment in Alberta. Proposed
amendments to the Alberta Corporate Tax Act would introduce a levy on
data centres in Alberta. Proposed amendments would:
• Introduce a levy of up to two per cent on the value of computer
equipment for large data centres (with 75 megawatts of power or
more). Data centres that bring their own power generation will pay a
lower rate.
• The amount of levy paid will be deductible from corporate income
taxes paid in Alberta.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I still have questions. WTF did the AIMCo board do before November 2024 that this is protecting us from? If taxpayers are shielded, I presume the bag holder would be public pensions? Whatever "this" is, but it must be something or this wouldn't be necessary. What do they know that they are not telling us?

The data centre levy is in there too, which is worth discussing.

You mean November 2024 when Stephen Harper was named the chairman of the AIMCo board of directors?

They have a mission statement to be the conservative piggy bank for pet projects and have lost billions of dollars from people's pensions.

But I am sure they are not trying to hide anything...

[Fuzz]

This sounds like the people before Harper and the new piggy bank. Who dun wut that needs protecting?

[Fuzz]

https://bsky.app/profile/ctheriault..../3m6ipzvjlyc2s


LOL, worth the short thread which makes the point that you can't just keep changing the rules, and should maybe call an election.


I suspect if these keep proceeding, it'll be a spring election after she secures her leadership review. The pressure is just gonna get too high to avoid it.