Barn Burner: The Boys are Back!! (Boomer, Pinder & Warrener)

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

I don't doubt Edwards reach, and that Bingo isn't even once-removed.

I don’t think Bingo is connected to him and I wouldn’t go that far. I know who Bingo is and I know he doesn’t work for him. It’s possible he’s “connected” I guess but I think that’s an allegation that’s too far.

I know lots of people employed by CNQ and that I deal with on a regular basis with CNQ. He controls everything.

I bet people would be blown away how much he controls. It shocks me every time I hear about it because it almost doesn’t even sound real. But one thing is consistent- every single person (many) over the years has said the exact same thing.

There’s absolutely no chance Conroy has much latitude to just “do what he thinks is best”. None.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The question is, do you want a good return, or do you want the return you can get right this minute? A number of posters seem to have their knickers in a twist because the trades are not happening RFN.

I think the case could be made that at least one of them should happen prior to Christmas to help maximize their own draft pick value.

If Nashville, Buffalo or St. Louis hit the market first, it's likely we'll lose ground to them - and that's kind of a key piece.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Hey, I believe it is a minor mistake not to publicly address the fact that the team is rebuilding. However, it does NOT mean that they are trying to compete, or in some way, going for it. You haven't seen a single 'going for it' move.

At some point this season, I would expect that the Flames come out and state that they are rebuilding, the media will announce the kickstart of their rebuild, and the world will be amazed that they rebuilt in 3 seasons.

The FACT is that this rebuild started 2 seasons ago already, and this is the third. They sold all their UFAs for futures, then went and sold on a few contracts with a bit of term left for futures.

This is the gist of it:
Other than formally announcing the rebuild, what exactly have they done that goes against an actual rebuild? Everything that Conroy has done - all the moves that have actually been made - are congruent with a rebuild. They are NOT congruent with a team trying to make it work.

• The selling of assets for futures
• The large amount of cap space in the last 2 seasons
• The quantity of draft assets that have been used to select prospects with, rather than use for currency
• The lack of acquiring any talent to help the team last season make the playoffs
• Not signing any UFAs this season.

I have been on 'team rebuild' for the last 4 or 5 seasons. I have criticized all the coaches between Hartley and Sutter like crazy. I have wanted Treliving fired a few years before he finally walked away on his own accord. I am hardly a mouthpiece for the Flames here.

I just don't get it. I am 100% happy with the direction of this team now. High pick incoming. Going to sell more assets this season. Organization has been drafting well, and now about to draft high.

How many of you got irate at Feaster's press conference after he sold on Iginla and Bouwmeester, announced the rebuild, and then stated that the objective was to make the playoffs next season? I understood the messaging there - "I will not accept this losing culture mentality, and this is going to be rebuilt along with the personnel." Obviously, too many people didn't understand the meaning, so he had to go and explain it.

The Flames have already sold more players than practically any other team that has undergone a rebuild. We know 100% that Andersson is also on the block. They haven't made a single move towards competing. There is also a fairly high probability that Kadri and/or Coleman and/or further moves are made.

I can definitely 100% understand the freak-outs if the Flames are making moves towards short-term winning, or announcing that they are going to be big spenders by the deadline and going to acquire established players in an effort to win. Unless you are on 'team compete', I don't understand the angst. Every single move has been with an eye towards the future, not now. The one single move you can point at that goes against that grain was the Frost/Farabee trade, but even then, it doesn't go against it. It was a buy-low situation on young players - if they rebound, they can either be part of the solution moving forward, or they can be flipped for a net increase in assets.

For the record, out of curiosity I listened to the Barn Burner spot with the clickbait shot of "Boomer Goes Off" or whatever. Meh - it was fine. Even throughout the video, it was more of an issue with Maloney being a very poor communicator, and that we shouldn't believe what is being said. Nothing I disagreed with really.

I do think that at some point this season, the Flames will announce a rebuild. I just find it funny right now and just imagine the management team laughing their asses off right now.

This is a rebuild, full stop. I am actually relieved that the Flames didn't announce that they were rebuilding as they sold off all their vets. I think some people would be so alarmed and insisting that the rebuild went 'off the rails' since they didn't pick high yet.

For some of you, this will be year 1 of the rebuild. For many others, this is already year 3, and the start of the 'bottoming-out'. This is going really, really well. I bet at some point this season, the Flames will formally announce the rebuild. I am curious as to how they will frame it. Just relax and see what moves they make and don't make before you get your pitchforks.


If Andersson is still on this team post-trade deadline, I will sharpen your pitchforks and light your torches for you. I am 100% sure that the fighting on these boards will quickly shift away from what the direction of the team really is, and towards arguing about the values of the returns, and then shifting into arguing about who to pick with the Flames' picks. I look forward to the different arguments!

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I think the case could be made that at least one of them should happen prior to Christmas to help maximize their own draft pick value.

If Nashville, Buffalo or St. Louis hit the market first, it's likely we'll lose ground to them - and that's kind of a key piece.

I agree. A team could have a better shot at making playoffs making that move earlier than later, so it’s possible being first out the gate could net a better return. We’ll never know, but I would think these guys are already being shopped and negotiations already underway. It’s just when do the Flames pull the trigger.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

It needs to happen by the trade deadline. Kadri and Andersson have to be gone by that day.

This is just my opinion of course, but that is my deadline. You absolutely cannot keep them, and Coleman should be gone too if you can get a 1st.

I agree with you about Andersson. I mostly agree with you about Kadri, though they shouldn't trade him for a 4th or something stupid like that just to get rid of him. And I agree about Coleman.

I just happen to believe that those things will happen when trades pick up around the league, and there's no point worrying right now because the market hasn't really opened yet.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I don’t think Bingo is connected to him and I wouldn’t go that far. I know who Bingo is and I know he doesn’t work for him. It’s possible he’s “connected” I guess but I think that’s an allegation that’s too far.

I know lots of people employed by CNQ and that I deal with on a regular basis with CNQ. He controls everything.

I bet people would be blown away how much he controls. It shocks me every time I hear about it because it almost doesn’t even sound real. But one thing is consistent- every single person (many) over the years has said the exact same thing.

There’s absolutely no chance Conroy has much latitude to just “do what he thinks is best”. None.

Once removed, being they'd have a mutual contact, and I'd hedge my mortgage on that.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I know lots of people employed by CNQ and that I deal with on a regular basis with CNQ. He controls everything.

I bet people would be blown away how much he controls. It shocks me every time I hear about it because it almost doesn’t even sound real. But one thing is consistent- every single person (many) over the years has said the exact same thing.

There’s absolutely no chance Conroy has much latitude to just “do what he thinks is best”. None.

Edwards is the chairman of that company, not the majority owner. He keeps being re-elected chairman of the board because the shareholders like the return he gets them for their money, and he can micromanage it because he knows the business.

I think he's intelligent enough to know that he has neither the time nor the skills to micromanage the sports business, which, from his point of view, is pretty much a hobby. I also don't believe that the other owners, who could easily vote him out of the governor's chair, would let an outsider to the business micromanage it instead of letting their hired managers do their jobs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

So why not just say you’re in a rebuild?

I guess my point is why does it matter...they are obviously in the building stage franchise wise. Yeah they wound up in the middle last year...do you really think they expected that at the start of the season? Did they trade Markstrom and start Wolf to make the playoffs?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Once removed, being they'd have a mutual contact, and I'd hedge my mortgage on that.

Murray Edwards knows a lot of people. He doesn't own them. He certainly doesn't own all the people that they know.

[Jason14h]

The risk is that the Flames aren't actually this bad and the most valuable asset to a rebuilding team is their own pick(s)

This is essentially the same team that had 96 points last year.

How they got 96 points last year - Personally I'll never understand. But they did which shows between some combo of Grit, Effort, Give a F, etc they are capable of being better then last in the NHL

When you are bad, you want to be REALLY bad. There is not pride or development finishing 5th-6th-7th etc last. You just deprive yourself of better odds of a star.

The biggest risk the Flames face this season is other teams pull the plug early on their season while we wait for "the best return" Or - god forbid - Keep players until next year hoping for a bounce back season, and start playing better

Using https://puckpedia.com/pickvalue for pick value - Because it was the best I could find, the first overall pick is worth 100 pts. The 5th overall is worth 50

So if the Flames don't fully embrace this season and drop to 5th, what does that mean value wise?

Well last season the Flames own first rounder (32nd) was worth.....10 pts. But realistically a late first can be anywhere from 24-32 - Playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot. Let's use 24th. It's worth 15 pts.

Effectively (If we believe this site) The Flames dropping from 1st overall to 5th overall is worth3-5X late 1st round picks.

This is why worrying about extracting maximum value out of Coleman and Kadri is overblown. The most valuable asset the Flames will own is their own 1st.

Sure if we knew we were finishing last then try to extract maximum value. But we easily could move up multiple spots - Especially if other teams embrace a tank and sell off

I don't think we need to "give away" guys like Kadri and Coleman (Or Andersson who i believe is 100% gone) but if the Flames end up drafting 4-7 this year it will be a catastrophe for the rebuild

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I don't think we need to "give away" guys like Kadri and Coleman (Or Andersson who i believe is 100% gone) but if the Flames end up drafting 4-7 this year it will be a catastrophe for the rebuild

Well, of course it will be a catastrophe, because this is the last year they'll even have a draft. Whatever players the team comes out with this July, it will be stuck with for all eternity.

Might want to tone down the rhetoric just a notch.

[dino7c]

Drafting 4th would be a catastrophe lol

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Drafting 4th would be a catastrophe lol

Yes it would

Take a look at some statistics

https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/

I don't think people realize the difference between a 1st or 2nd pick and 4th pick. Its massive (And 4th pick has historically been better then 3rd)

You drop from a 60% chance of a 750 pt player to a 25% chance
A 25% chance of a 1000 pt player (Hall of Famer) to 10%

These are massive drop offs.

And for what? To increase your trade value of Coleman or Kadri by a small amount?

[TheScorpion]

Flames have never picked top 3 and there is a strong consensus forming around McKenna, Verhoeff, and Stenberg, so yes it would be pretty disastrous to miss out on the draft podium yet again

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Yes it would

Take a look at some statistics

https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/

I don't think people realize the difference between a 1st or 2nd pick and 4th pick. Its massive (And 4th pick has historically been better then 3rd)

You drop from a 60% chance of a 750 pt player to a 25% chance
A 25% chance of a 1000 pt player (Hall of Famer) to 10%

These are massive drop offs.

And for what? To increase your trade value of Coleman or Kadri by a small amount?

I see. So if the Flames do trade Coleman and Kadri for whatever they can get right this minute, that will cause them to win the lottery and draft 1st overall?

If not, your entire comparison is invalid. You should be comparing the weighted value of the top 3 picks, based on the odds of the last-place team winning either lottery draw.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I see. So if the Flames do trade Coleman and Kadri for whatever they can get right this minute, that will cause them to win the lottery and draft 1st overall?

If not, your entire comparison is invalid. You should be comparing the weighted value of the top 3 picks, based on the odds of the last-place team winning either lottery draw.

The weighted value increases the lower you finish Math clearly isn't your specialty

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The weighted value increases the lower you finish Math clearly isn't your specialty

I seem to be better at it than you are, because I knew to use the weighted value and you simply compared later picks with the 1st overall as if the team were certain of picking 1st by finishing last.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I see. So if the Flames do trade Coleman and Kadri for whatever they can get right this minute, that will cause them to win the lottery and draft 1st overall?

If not, your entire comparison is invalid. You should be comparing the weighted value of the top 3 picks, based on the odds of the last-place team winning either lottery draw.

If trading Kadri would guarantee us a top 3 pick and we got nothing in return I would still do it. That is how much I value a top 3 pick this year.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I seem to be better at it than you are, because I knew to use the weighted value and you simply compared later picks with the 1st overall as if the team were certain of picking 1st by finishing last.

You're guaranteed top 3!

Take out your calculator, and multiple the odds of picking 1st, 2nd and 3rd when you finish last and the odds that player is a star/superstar. Then take out your calculator and multiply the odds of drafting 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th when you finish 4th. Multiply those by the odds a player ends up a star/superstar.

I wonder which is higher!

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

If trading Kadri would guarantee us a top 3 pick and we got nothing in return I would still do it. That is how much I value a top 3 pick this year.

But it doesn't guarantee a top-3 pick, and you'd be foolish to trade him for nothing in return.

If Kadri did get traded for future considerations tomorrow, I guarantee CP would have an epic collective meltdown. And they would be right to do so.