2025/2026 Season Trade Rumours and Speculation Thread

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Personally I cringe with all the McKenna talk. Just a 25% chance if you do finish last, and there is certainly no guarantee they'll be in that spot.

The season is lost. They're not going to make the playoffs.

So the first task is a top ten pick in my mind. The current 10th overall pick is in the .550 range in win percentage (usually .500), which is 90 points.

Flames need to go 38-22-2 .629 or a 103 point pace over 82 games to not pick in the top ten.

As time goes by move that to top five.

Hey - are you new here? Everyone on CP just *knows* that the Flames will not only be last but be guaranteed the first OA pick. Reality and the factors of "chance" fail to intrude.

[ResAlien]

What an odd thing to get sore about. We're obviously bad and clearly not a playoff team. Should fans be instead getting overly familiar with the #8 prospect in case we're bad but not bad enough for the top of the draft?

[Calgary4LIfe]

I still take McKenna 1st if given the option, but I won't be bad with Verhoeff either.


There is nothing guaranteed about the right side. I still think Parekh needs more time, but he may only be a high-scoring defencemen who is 'meh' in his own zone during his prime. The rest may not make it, including Brzustewicz. It looks fairly deep right now, but it in reality, it may not be. Verhoeff would be the guy who plays almost 30 minutes a night and controls the game in every situation. That's incredibly valuable to a team in the long run, especially with any aspirations of contending.


I am just keeping a more open mind, and feel like the Flames are going to take a big step forward as an organization when they draft McKenna, Verhoeff, Stenberg, or Lawrence.. or whomever else pushes themselves into the top end. I am betting that once McKenna fills-out a little more, he will make fools out of people questioning him - I think he is the next big point producer - but I am just happy to draft a franchise-level player - whomever it will end up as - next June. It will be damn exciting to bring a player of that caliber onto the Flames and watch him grow for the next decade.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Middle 6 winger trades for picks in the last 2 years:
2025 TD:

• Brad Marchand - conditional 2nd, that turned into a 1st due to FLA making to the ECF
• Reilly Smith - 3rd + Brisson
• Gustav Nyquist - 2nd
• Andrei Kuzmenko + 7th - 3rd
• Kaapo Kakko - 3rd + 6th + Borgen

2024 Off-season

• Reilly Smith - 2nd + 5th
• Tanner Jeannot - 2nd + 4th
• Andrew Mangiapane - 2nd

2024 TD

• Jack Roslovic - 4th
• Tyler Toffoli - 2nd + 3rd
• Anthony Duclair + 7th - 3rd + Thompson
• Vladimir Tarasenko - 3rd + 4th
• Anthony Mantha - 2nd + 4th

Those trades don't exactly show GMs throwing 1sts at middle 6 wingers. A lot of those trades had retention as well. Now, you can argue that you get 2 years of Coleman, but I think that getting a 1st back would be pretty tough.

What about the Gourde and Bjorkstrand trade. TB gave up a couple first rounders and and 2nd for them.

That was a messy trade, but a couple firsts and a 2nd moved there. I would consider them middle 6.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Robbob

What about the Gourde and Bjorkstrand trade. TB gave up a couple first rounders and and 2nd for them.

That was a messy trade, but a couple firsts and a 2nd moved there. I would consider them middle 6.

Isn't Gourde a center?

I found that middle 6 Cs did get better returns. Like TOR giving up a 1st for Laughton. COL giving up a haul for Nelson etc. I'm not sure how much of that was for Gourde vs Bjorkstrand. Also in the seasons before the trade, Bjorkstrand was playing at a 59, 46, 58, 64, and 60 point pace. Arguably, he was the more productive winger than Coleman before the trade.

[dammage79]

Again. People seem bent on trying to pre determine that the presumptive 1st OA pick is a bust. It's bewildering. Outside of team need and position, you take McKenna 1st OA if the Flames finally get a chance to pick 1st and you run.

I've personally said all along this year it'd be hilariously fitting that the Flames pick 1st overall finally only to draft a Left winger. But that's about all I can say about McKenna at this point. Simply because we do not know what the results of the new NCAA and major Jr agreement will lead to.

I think with McKenna at the very worst will stay in college for 2 or 3 seasons before jumping to the NHL. And that's at very worst. Kids ridiculously talented, just needs physical development.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I agree with your point, but I think we're safe to talk top 5 now

Less sure myself.

5th place team at .474 for 78 points pace.

Flames need to go 32-28-2 to finish with 79 and not draft top 5. That's a 86 point pace over 82 games.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

What an odd thing to get sore about. We're obviously bad and clearly not a playoff team. Should fans be instead getting overly familiar with the #8 prospect in case we're bad but not bad enough for the top of the draft?

Me?

Not sure I'm sore about anything.

Just don't see the need to focus on one player because even if you do land in last 3/4 coin tosses says you don't get him.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Me?

Not sure I'm sore about anything.

Just don't see the need to focus on one player because even if you do land in last 3/4 coin tosses says you don't get him.

But 43% chance top 2 and 100% top 3

It isn't just about 1 player. If the Flames end up picking in the 6-10 range this season will just be another disaster in the "rebuild" plan.

It's easier to just say the player ranked 1# overall then "Finish Last" (Or at least rolls of the tongue better)

2 disaster seasons in a row from a rebuild perspective will be putting us in the 10 years out of the playoffs discussion really quickly.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Me?

Not sure I'm sore about anything.

Just don't see the need to focus on one player because even if you do land in last 3/4 coin tosses says you don't get him.

Because if you’re going to be crap it's nice to have something to look forward to. Literally every fanbase of every bad team does this with the potential top pick of every draft.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

But 43% chance top 2 and 100% top 3

It isn't just about 1 player. If the Flames end up picking in the 6-10 range this season will just be another disaster in the "rebuild" plan.

It's easier to just say the player ranked 1# overall then "Finish Last" (Or at least rolls of the tongue better)

2 disaster seasons in a row from a rebuild perspective will be putting us in the 10 years out of the playoffs discussion really quickly.

Aren't we all saying the same thing?

I'm just more focused on eliminating the likelihood of certain events.

The start to me has made the weaker lottery position (11-16) all but impossible, and drafting say 8-10th very unlikely. Next up is the math vs a non top 5 pick, and then top 3.

But none of that should be labeled on one player that has a 25% of landing here if you finish 32nd.

[NegativeSpace]

Exactly. The Flames don't have great luck. Let's wait until the lottery ball is pulled before we start labelling a pick for a player.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Less sure myself.

5th place team at .474 for 78 points pace.

Flames need to go 32-28-2 to finish with 79 and not draft top 5. That's a 86 point pace over 82 games.

I feel two things are likely this season:


1) Less 'bad teams' so both the wins for the Flames will be harder to come by, and I believe the bottom 3 teams will have a slightly higher point total as compared to the last few seasons


2) I think the Flames have been playing well for a while now, but not getting the wins. I do expect Andersson will be traded at some point (at least him), and when that happens, defence will be more of an issue, and I think the will of this team drops a notch or two as well.


You may be right, but I will be surprised if Calgary finishes with more than ~60 pts, and I think this season, it will be good for last place (unless Nashville blows it up). The last time there wasn't any sub-60 point teams in a season was 2018-19 season where Ottawa finished last with 64 points, and the next closest team was LA with 71.


All bets are off if Nashville decides to blow it up! If they sell a couple of vets - especially if they include Saros, then they may end up as a sub 50 point team this season, especially given the lack of 'easy teams'. I am taking the under right now for Calgary finishing with 60 points.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Aren't we all saying the same thing?

I'm just more focused on eliminating the likelihood of certain events.

The start to me has made the weaker lottery position (11-16) all but impossible, and drafting say 8-10th very unlikely. Next up is the math vs a non top 5 pick, and then top 3.

But none of that should be labeled on one player that has a 25% of landing here if you finish 32nd.

Is it 100% chance of top two if you come last?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Is it 100% chance of top two if you come last?

no, 3rd pick is actually the most likely

[united]

FWIW, The Athletic's model, that simulates the remainder of the season 50,000 times every morning, currently has the Flames most often finishing in last place with 70 points, 1 point behind the Sharks the Predators. The Flames pick 1st overall in 13% of simulations, top 5 in 70% of simulations, and top 10 in 92% of simulations, showing the wide range of outcomes that results from 3/4 of the season remaining to play out.

The Flames also make the playoffs in 2% of simulations. So you're saying there's a chance?

[dino7c]

so yeah about an 87% chance of NOT drafting McKenna

[CroCop]

I think the fact that through the first quarter of the season the Flames owning the last spot has many of us believing and hoping we can get that best chance to draft 1st for the first time ever.
Finishing almost last gives similar odds of drafting #1 but doesn’t guarantee a top 3 pick. Finishing 32nd is where we all should hope this season leads us. It’s of to good start but won’t be easy because our goalie is so darn good and eventually goals will start going in for the group. Luck has not been on there side in that dept and it will change at least for a stretch or 2.
I think that’s why so many of us are truly hoping the losses pile up now because inevitably a good stretch will come and hopefully they will still be at the bottom when that stretch ends.

[SuperMatt18]

So as of right now a 13% of drafting Mckenna, a 70% chance of picking top 5, and a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

Seems pretty clear what direction the team should be leaning into hard.

#TradeKAC

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I feel two things are likely this season:


1) Less 'bad teams' so both the wins for the Flames will be harder to come by, and I believe the bottom 3 teams will have a slightly higher point total as compared to the last few seasons


2) I think the Flames have been playing well for a while now, but not getting the wins. I do expect Andersson will be traded at some point (at least him), and when that happens, defence will be more of an issue, and I think the will of this team drops a notch or two as well.


You may be right, but I will be surprised if Calgary finishes with more than ~60 pts, and I think this season, it will be good for last place (unless Nashville blows it up). The last time there wasn't any sub-60 point teams in a season was 2018-19 season where Ottawa finished last with 64 points, and the next closest team was LA with 71.


All bets are off if Nashville decides to blow it up! If they sell a couple of vets - especially if they include Saros, then they may end up as a sub 50 point team this season, especially given the lack of 'easy teams'. I am taking the under right now for Calgary finishing with 60 points.

Two comments to the bold:

1) playing better recently:
1st 10 games: 2-7-1
2nd 10 games: 3-5-2
and not only a better record, but scoring more and defending better. I think the 1st 10 was just a rough stretch (they happen), and the 2nd 10 is more indicative of what the team is and what many of us expected: relatively competitive, but under .500. And that is about what I expect them to continue to do. Until...

2) Andersson gets traded (and maybe others):
The defense is under-manned this year already, and taking Andersson out of the mix is going to be noticeable. I think they will play to a lower record, once the trades start.

And on that note, I also think there will be fewer teams tanking and selling this year. Some? Of course, with the most likely candidates right now being NSH and maybe STL or BUF and maybe 1 or 2 others. SJS will be interesting - can they keep up their current pace? Even if they can't, I would imagine that they want to take a step forward this year. I see them in the bottom 10 but not bottom 5. Similar thoughts on CHI.

Bottom line: I don't think there will be 6-8 tanking teams, like there are some years. So it seems to me that bottom 5 is going to be a foregone conclusion sooner rather than later. But of course, we need to get further along in the season before we officially bury them.