Flames Offensive Zone Struggles

[SuperMatt18]

Had posted this in the Ryan Huska thread but think our offensive zone struggles probably deserve their own discussion outside of the discussions of firing the coach.

Flames are not doing an effective job of generating quality this season, and are really settling for low danger attempts.

At 5v5 They rank:

Corsi For: 62.53/60 - 7th

Low Danger Corsi For: 38.79/60 - 5th
Medium Danger Corsi For: 14.98 /60 - 19th
High Danger Corsi For: 10.75 /60 - 20th

Shots For: 29.42 /60 - 4th

Low Danger Shots For: 14.47 /60 - 2nd
Medium Danger Shots For: 6.38/60 - 21st
High Danger Shots For: 6.84 /60- 22nd

xGF: 2.54/60 - 22nd
GF: 2.00/60 - 27th

I was trying to figure out if there is a way to measure a teams efficiency in translating total shot attempt volume to actual quality.

I decided upon looking at the ratio of high danger / xGF to total Corsi volume and the Flames are abysmal by those metrics.

Flames rank 29th in terms of High Danger Chance to Total Corsi ratio - only 17.2% of their Corsi Attempts are High Danger. Only the Bruins, Oilers, and Kraken are lower this year.

And they are even worse and rank 31st in terms of xGF to Total Corsi ratio - 3.87% - with only the Kraken being lower.

Overall the coaches keep preaching to have a high volume of shots and get traffic and bodies to the net, but it's not working for the roster this team has at their disposal. And is leading to very inefficient offensive zone time.

And TBH I don't think you even need the stats to prove this one out - it's painfully obvious when you watch them play IMO. Lots of zone time, no real quality of chances.

Cycle, back to the point, point shot with limited traffic. Maybe a rebound attempt. Rinse. Repeat.

Might be time for the team to try a bit of a different approach here.

[DJones]

The ratio is meaningless to me. They are still getting high danger shots. They just can't score on them.

#### I think they wait to long to shoot a lot of the times. Shooting less isn't going to help.

Defense can't get a shot through and forwards can't get rebounds

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

I get Huska's general stance about traffic in front of the increasing the chance of scoring from a point shot. But if the chance of scoring from a point shot is real low to begin with, maybe increasing that by 20% or whatever doesn't really move the needle?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DJones

The ratio is meaningless to me. They are still getting high danger shots. They just can't score on them.

#### I think they wait to long to shoot a lot of the times. Shooting less isn't going to help.

Defense can't get a shot through and forwards can't get rebounds

Stats show this isn't true though - Defense is doing a good job of getting shots through. They have the 2nd most low danger shots per 60 in the league.

And they are getting high danger chances but are in the bottom third of the league in that metric still.

[The Cobra]

They are deficient of offensive talent.

[Badgers Nose]

Thanks for this post, SuperMatt18, and for doing the analysis.

I agree, that this scoring drought is not skills based because we have data on our roster before this season. They didn't suddenly lose their skills.

There is a system, or maybe psychology, issue attached to how players are performing this year.

The system is the first and easiest thing to fix. Coach can't scrap it for many reasons, but they can ease off a bit if they find it isn't working.

If Huska wants to die on that system hill, fine. It's his NHL coaching career going up in smoke too. After he is fired next season, it will be hard to find HC work at this level again. Right now he is proving that he is media savvy, but inflexible in how he deploys his roster. He seems to want 9 Colemans and 2 Lombos.

Other young coaches that came in the league the last 10 years or so, that actually stuck around, seem to be more flexible.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They are deficient of offensive talent.

yes, of course, but they are made worse by the system they are using. It's also incredibly easy to defend if you know they won't vary their approach at all during a game. Only Frost and Huberdeau are really doing anything to try and create chances, and often they are stymied because everyone else is doing the system that doesn't meld well with their creative plays.

I do put the offensive struggles at the feet of Huska. He hasn't found a way to be innovative when his approach doesn't work well. He sticks to the plan and doesn't deviate ever. It's not very effective coaching.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

yes, of course, but they are made worse by the system they are using. It's also incredibly easy to defend if you know they won't vary their approach at all during a game. Only Frost and Huberdeau are really doing anything to try and create chances, and often they are stymied because everyone else is doing the system that doesn't meld well with their creative plays.

I do put the offensive struggles at the feet of Huska. He hasn't found a way to be innovative when his approach doesn't work well. He sticks to the plan and doesn't deviate ever. It's not very effective coaching.

He says he wants them to play a certain way, and doesn't seem to want to make any adjustments to that.

Maybe he thinks it worked last year, but I think last season was fuelled by anger and pride. Guys wanted to show the exiting malcontents that we didn't need them. All the talk about being a lottery team, they wanted to prove that wrong. We could see it in the interviews, guys had a chip on their shoulders.

But it's asking a lot of any group of guys to sustain that for TWO seasons. Heck, it was amazing they kept it going until the very end of last season.

Apart from 2-3 guys, that fire has extinguished itself.

Huska needs to find a new spark. Or not, the rebuild is happening regardless of what he does. But how he manages this season and next probably decides his NHL head coaching future.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Last year, guys were driving to the net. That seems to have completely disappeared this year.

[calculoso]

Who on the Flames coaching staff has ever been known as high offence?

Huska? No - Defenceman whisperer
Lowry? Doubt it
MacLean?
Cull? Maybe

It’s no wonder that there is no offensive creativity on the team.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Last year, guys were driving to the net. That seems to have completely disappeared this year.

I think other teams have adjusted - feel like they play the Flames pretty passive at 5v5. Just try to box out and take away rebound chances, aren't as worried about chasing the Flames at all.

[FanIn80]

I've seen lots of systems designed to stifle creativity and unpredictability over the years, but not many that were designed to do it to their own team.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Last year, guys were driving to the net. That seems to have completely disappeared this year.

Agreed.

Question is: is that the coach's fault?

[Rhett44]

I'm not a coaching expert by any means, but it doesn't seem like the players are willing to crash or drive the net. Which is basically the Huska system.

Even on the powerplay, they just play around the perimeter with no net presence.

We certainly don't have a ton of skill on the roster, but they should not be this inept either. When one player is struggling, it is on the player. When an entire team is struggling, you have to put some blame on the coach.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Agreed.

Question is: is that the coach's fault?

In the end, yes it is. If he notices they aren't doing it and he wants them to, then he needs to reinforce that habit in practice and in games. Take guys out of the lineup if they aren't doing what they're told.

Outside of Zary, who might be really gun shy after almost losing his knee twice last year, I don't know why anyone else wouldn't drive the net. Coleman seems to do this. Sometimes Farabee. Everyone else is super passive. That's not a coincidence.

[SuperMatt18]

Were they doing it last year too...or were they just getting better outcomes in the actual game results.

I was curious where they ranked last year by the same metrics:

At 5v5 They ranked:

Corsi For: 63.04/60 - 4th

Low Danger Corsi For: 38.36/60 - 3rd
Medium Danger Corsi For: 16.95 /60 - 5th
High Danger Corsi For: 10.21 /60 - 21st

Shots For: 28.8 /60 - 5th

Low Danger Shots For: 13.53 /60 - 4th
Medium Danger Shots For: 7.02/60 - 8th
High Danger Shots For: 6.35 /60- 20th

xGF: 2.43/60 - 21st
GF: 2.1/60 - 29th

So the reality is it didn't work last year either. They just had a better PP last year than they do so far this year, and were getting elite goaltending most of the year / were giving up less defensively.

And really it hasn't worked for Huska's entire tenure as head coach at 5v5 looking at 23-24 through 25-26

Corsi For: 62.82/60 - 5th

Low Danger Corsi For: 38.22/60 - 3rd
Medium Danger Corsi For: 16.65 /60 - 6th
High Danger Corsi For: 10.64 /60 - 21st

Shots For: 29.53 /60 - 6th

Low Danger Shots For: 13.93 /60 - 5th
Medium Danger Shots For: 7.17/60 - 10th
High Danger Shots For: 6.78 /60- 22nd

xGF: 2.51/60 - 19th
GF: 2.29/60 - 26th

The players at his disposal are something to do with it, and the Flames lack elite top end talent, but I do truly believe they should be able to generate better offensive outcomes than they've seen under Huska. It's all three seasons now under Huska where the outcomes offensively look identical. High volume, poor quality, poor overall GF results.

[Psytic]

Couldn't ask for a better leader over the next two drafts. Still a long way to go but, it's kind of exciting having a snowballs chance at getting an elite game breaker or two.

[Flamesfan05]

With the lack of talent, they are not going to win much even with Scotty Bowman coaching the team

The bigger concern is whether the coaching is going to drive the young skilled players right out of the league, mainly Parekh and Coronato.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

With the lack of talent, they are not going to win much even with Scotty Bowman coaching the team

The bigger concern is whether the coaching is going to drive the young skilled players right out of the league, mainly Parekh and Coronato.

eye roll

[activeStick]

This is a week old but indicates the Flames are out chancing their opponents but getting outscored by their opponents. So not finishing and low on skill, talent and offensive depth.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1985048981693460794